benchmark

Dolan still controls both entities. He won't just let the contract run out and wipe out billions in value. Just added more at 14.75. Company has been plowing cash into debt pay down, now standing around $700M net of cash. You've got $200M FCF and even with sub decline a fairly decent chunk of it will continue to get offset by decrease in interest expenses. 6.5% decrease in subscriber is staggering

Can you share you thoughts on this? Personally, in terms of how I am positioning, I think as you get closer to a US/China deal, you are going to want to be less overweight US. I have been massively overweight, so I am in the process of reducing exposure. For a long time I have been seeking a good India play. Xiaomi is dominant in India and growing like a weed. In terms of the business, after looking into it further I believe it is largely unappreciated and not well understood. The core business IMO is not really the smartphones but the advertising and services. Lei Jun is an impressive fellow, and Shun Wei Capital(their investing arm) seems to be positioning for dominance in the IOT/AI markets. Where better to be than India/China with a free call option(eventually) on the US? To me, this has the potential to be a mini-Softbank/Tencent. Very long run way. I mostly agree that india/china will be growing faster than US. Xiaomi's growth in india seems to be driven mostly by its cheap phone -- but i don't know if that's a sustainable advantage. In china, it's proven that price war is very hard to win.

Can you share you thoughts on this?

'write puts' == selling puts? and how do you decide which put to write? I sometimes sell puts as well, but only for one week or less time, maybe the profit/cost-of-selling isn't great?

Well for one Apple is a lot cheaper than Google. That has to count for a lot. Also I'm not that sure that google has a higher probably of growth than apple. I can make a case the other way around. If he were to reflect on the 'mistake' of not investing in google, I wonder what are the lessons, and seems to me that those lessons still won't get him to invest in google. Btw, I don't think google is expensive (not cheap, but not expensive).

What's more interesting to me is that he chose to invest in Apple now vs others, in particular google, which I think has a high probability of growth than Apple.

From NYT: "As for Alphabet, Mr. Buffett said that he had “made a mistake.” He said he was unable to conclude that at Alphabet’s present prices, its “prospects were far better than the prices indicated.”" Comparing this with his investment in Apple (and IBM), I wish someone would ask him his reasonings.

I think that these traditional tobacco companies have a lot more staying power than you think --> they have an addictive product. In addition, most of them have diversified into other business.

Yes, it's a complete rebuild. Thought about renting out our current house (with a bit of touch up, the rent will cover the mortgage), then buying a different house. However, I can't convince myself to pay the sky-high price (in SF area), though interesting enough, this calculator seems to say that buying isn't a bad option: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

I always said it with a rhyme: "happy wife equals happy life!" It's a big investment and a huge time sink, we'd have to get a rental house for 1.5 years, that's why I'm not too keen on it -- though i think she'll get her way in the end :)

My wife is planning a rebuild of our house, and I'm trying to convince her that the ROI isn't there -- only 10-20% after 1.5 year of construction. I came across this recent article by Ken Fisher, and showed it her. She is still not convinced :( https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2018/02/18/why-your-home-lousy-investment-when-you-think-its-great/340516002/

BWP

Can you elaborate on this or point me to the original post of Ericopoly? I'm trying to figure out a way to hedge the gain on bank stocks. Dealing with (maybe not hedging per se though) the gain on bank stocks (specifically BAC) is exactly the problem Ericopoly was trying to solve. In order to avoid a large capital gains tax bill, but still take money out of your portfolio with this strategy, you first must make sure you have a Portfolio Margin account (as opposed to the standard Reg-T margin account). My understanding is that Portfolio Margin will look at different offsetting positions when determining whether or not to make a margin call. For example, if you buy at-the-money puts that cover your bank stock, any decline in the stock should be more or less offset by the gain in the puts. Portfolio margin will give you credit for the gain in the puts, while Reg-T will not. Once you have your appreciated stock protected with puts, you can remove cash from the account by borrowing on margin. Hopefully, the puts expire worthless and you get a tax write-off. Rinse and repeat by buying more puts. If the puts appreciate in value due to a steep decline, sell them and reduce your margin borrowing. If the stock continues to appreciate, your margin borrowing ability grows. Removing cash from the account by borrowing on margin -- is that only applicable to the portfolio margin account? can't you simply do it with the reg-T account?

Can you elaborate on this or point me to the original post of Ericopoly? I'm trying to figure out a way to hedge the gain on bank stocks.

Interesting view. I have never thought it this way -- figuring that with a 3% mortgage, I can get better returns in the market and avoid the tax penalty. Is that not the right way to think about this?

He might still be right, except the market can be irrational much longer ...

To me, a good deed. I think that financial still have some upside. However, one thing that keeps bothering me is that I don't know how these big banks will do with a) online/mobile payments and b) cyber currency. Does that mostly eliminate the need to go to a branch, which is a big moat for the big banks? How will that impair their earnings?

Great post. What website or service that you use to search for used cars?

same Curious on what duration of the puts are you guys buying?

FUEL, GM

How? I looked at put options, the lowest is 842.5 strike for march 17.

I like it a lot, especially the first part of the book.

I had the same issue -- took a big loss on Jan 16, but held on to Jan 17. Fortunately, it worked out, but it was very stressful

Are you still short US markets? I reopened about half of them after the bulk of the rally following November's election. Still waiting on clarity for lasting corporate tax reform or for markets to begin to tank to get confident enough to go back to where it was at. Ultimately, the healthier the U.S. economy is, the higher interest rates go, the higher the dollar goes, and the higher wages will go. These will all act counter-cyclically to continue their contribution to negative earnings growth and I don't believe that there will be an incrementally large pick-up in U.S. consumer spending anytime soon to offset it given that we're hitting years where boomer retirements will be offsetting new job entrants (typically, spending drops in retirement and new workers won't be making enough to offset it). TL;DR - I'm expecting corporate profits to continue to fall in 2017. Was clearly wrong about 7 or so quarters of profit contractions being the end of the bull market, but I have a harder time believing markets will be ok with 11-12 straight quarters of corporate profit contraction without an eventual correction. How did you short it?

We only have Vanguard index funds in 401k, so growing at 10% is almost impossible :(