Alekbaylee

My dad had a sign in his workshop. "Women's faults are many, Men have only two, Everything they say, And everything they do." Lol! So true any way you slice/see it!

Wonder what will be the (adverse) effect of this nuclear disaster on the fisheries in that area (Pacific) vs other parts of the world.

I mean, who builds a reactor on the seashore and doesn't plan for tsunamis. Precisely. And this time around, unlike the BP spill and other disasters, we can't blame the private sector... Anyway, let's hope that this teaches the whole world about the dangers of nuclear. After all, we're all concerned as there's no "spare planet" where to go.

Interesting indeed to see how organized they are but still... given the instability of the area (prone to quakes), I'm surprised their engineers didn't come up with a better cooling system...

Alek, The Us prices you had hadn't been adjusted at the time. a. Tx Al. Loosing a bit of concentration with all this nuclear mess. Speaking of mess... they're gonna need a lot of (sponge) paper to clean this mess... ::)

A bit more up this week : Pulp NBSK USD USD 963.61 +1.80 Pulp BHKP USD USD 848.27 +0.65 With this interesting comment : Paper industry – A fairly large part (20% or so) of Japan’s pulp and paper capacity has been shut down due to the combined impact of the earthquake and tsunami. The full impact will only be known when the duration of the closures has been seen. It is obvious that the rest of the machines will run full, assuming that they will be able to get the energy needed. Imports of paper from outside may also increase. http://www.foex.fi/

World's costliest quakes in insured damages since 1980 (before this one) Date Country/Région Total cost (M $) Insured Costs (M $) Victims 17/01/94 USA ( Northridge) 44 000 15 300 61 27/02/2010 Chili 30 000 8 000 520 17/01/95 Japan (Kobé) 100 000 3 000 6 430 26/12/04 South Asia (tsunami) 10 000 1 000 210 000 17/10/89 USA (Loma Prieta) 10 000 960 68 23/10/04 Japan 28 000 760 46 21/09/99 Taïwan (Nantou) 14 000 750 2 370 28/12/89 Australia (Newcastle) 1 200 670 13 17/08/99 Turkey (Izmit) 12 000 600 15 000 16/07/07 Japan 12 500 335 11 28/02/01 USA (Seattle) 2 000 305 13/01/01 El Salvador 1 500 290 853 12/01/10 Haïti 8 000 200 316 000

Some interesting comparative numbers... Most expensive quakes. Date Country/Region Total cost ($M) (Insured costs $M) Victims 17/01/95 Japan: Kobé 100 000 3 000 6 430 12/05/08 China : Sichuan 85 000 87 149 17/01/94 USA: Northridge 44 000 15 300 61 27/02/10 Chili 30 000 8 000 520 23/10/04 Japan: Niigata 28 000 460 46 07/12/98 Armenia: Spitak 14 000 25 000 21/09/99 Taïwan: Nantou 14 000 750 2 370 16/07/07 Japan: Niigata 12 500 335 1 17/08/99 Turkey: Izmit 12 600 600 15 000 23/11/80 Italy: Irpinia 11 000 40 2 914 17/10/89 USA: Loma Prieta 10 000 960 68 26/12/04 South-Asia (tsunami) 10 000 1 000 210 000 12/01/10 Haïti 8 000 200 316 000 21/06/90 Iran (Gilan) 7 100 100 40 000 Seems to confirm the low penetration (Kobe's was particulary strong)

US Pulp prices (NBSK) up nicely this week http://www.foex.fi/

tx for the tip Gordoffh, it's meaningful indeed : http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=FBK Mar 04/11 Feb 28/11 Desjardins, Pierre Direct Ownership Convertible Debentures (7% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures) 38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase -25,000 Mar 04/11 May 25/10 Desjardins, Pierre Direct Ownership Convertible Debentures (7% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures) 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report Mar 04/11 Mar 03/11 Côté, Pierre Gabriel Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 9,000 $1.430 Mar 04/11 Mar 03/11 Côté, Pierre Gabriel Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 40,000 $1.440 Mar 04/11 Mar 02/11 Côté, Pierre Gabriel Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 50,000 $1.430 Mar 04/11 Mar 01/11 Côté, Pierre Gabriel Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 25,000 $1.470 Mar 04/11 Mar 03/11 Paradis, Dany Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 4,600 $1.400 Mar 04/11 Mar 02/11 Paradis, Dany Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 400 $1.400 Mar 04/11 Mar 01/11 Paradis, Dany Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 5,000 $1.420 Feb 25/11 Feb 23/11 Lamarre-Cliche, Emmanuelle Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options 94,729 On another note, looks like Fibrek is not the only one to see a bright future in paper : http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Paper-Excellence-invest-200-capress-3280370143.html?x=0

Or that part of those neutral were already bullish so they'll keep the same position... ;D

Although not a bad idea, I doubt Prem would be interested in running someone else's company. and I don't see any colonialist/racist tone; he just uses an expression to say that he's looking for a big co. IMO

I prefer debt free. It gives them maximum flexibility. I would want a sell / takeover or debt free with dividends of all cash flow over capex Same thing here, specially considering today's economic incertainty.

Not unusual volume, though. Probably just some speculators trimming their positions.

Thanks a million... ok ok a billion... Sanjeev! ;)

Lucky man! Didn't have the chance to get my hands on Mercer or Canfor. Though question. I guess it'll all depend on the outcomes (afterwards)... ;D

Tx Pick52, So FBK has the lowest Debt/Cap ratio and the cheapest Price/Book in his group? Lots of catch up to get to the 1.3 average; should sell at x3 from where it is now.

I tell myself that I should reduce my position a bit, I then execute that and shortly thereafter usually buy back the position when I re-analyze how cheap the stock is and how cheap I thought it was when it hit $2 last year. Yes, I know that is dumb, lacks a certain plan and is tax inefficient. It's not dumb, it's human. I think we're all struggling with the same dilemma, specially because it makes a big chunk of our respective portfolios. It's hard to keep faith when you saw it go from $2 early last year to less than $1 a few months later, albeit a better financial situation. I'm sure everybody thought "Dam, should have sold at 2 and bought back at 1" or "Sh... should have bought Canfor or Mercer instead of this dog". Well, our patience should be rewarded in a few weeks/months. I can't see what will keep the stock at this ridiculous price.

As they're redeeming half of the Debs, hope they reinstitute a (modest) dividend right away. That may be the "catalyst" (as Al put it) to lift this moribond share price to where it should be and get some visibility.

For now I am happy for the people of Egypt. Hopefully they follow thru and get the leadership they want / deserve. - Same here I dont see it spreading to the richer gulf states. Hard to say. Who would have predicted the recent events? There are already some protests (although less vocal) in Bahrein, Koweit, Saudi Arabia & Al. Tomorrow a big protest/march is planned in Algeria...

who's next? Algeria's president? That country is also and oil&gas exporter, so we might see a spike in that industry (O&G). Comments/insights?

That's more frustrating... for us poor FBK shareholders I mean... >:(

Results will be released February 17th. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Fairfax-Announces-Conference-Call-TSX-FFH-1387233.htm

"But if that is the case would it not be in those three parties own best interests to keep share price low?" That's what I've been thinking for a while, but again it's pure speculation. We shall learn more in the coming weeks/months. Meanwhile, today's news didn't move the s/p at all.

Hmm... Tembec considering investments too... The Quebec-based lumber, pulp and paper producer is examining options to spend several hundred millions of dollars on projects over five years. A large part of the money could be spent to produce green electricity and reduce costs and enhance pulp production at its flagship facility in Temiscaming, Que. "If it wasn't for China and the demand and the impact it had on the market, whether we wanted to or not, we would not be in the financial position to do it," CEO James Lopez said in an interview Thursday before its annual shareholders meeting. He said the company is in strong financial shape to consider projects because its debt has been reduced to $200 million from about $1.4 billion a few years ago and it foresees strong free cash from operations expected this year. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinese-demand-giving-Tembec-capress-277224271.html;_ylt=AkbKturc2qUYQAw9pxDMYn9yzJpG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4bzEybDFyBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNjaGluZXNlZGVtYW4-?x=0 Re de Website : Pure speculation, but maybe they already know who will buy them and are not interested in marketing themselves or spending any time or money on a website that will disappear in a few months...