Alekbaylee

Another perspective... For every 1 percent drop in investment returns, underwriting pricing has got to improve an average of 3.5 percent, "but that is not happening," Hartwig said. "As we look forward, where is the industry going to grow? The answer is in emerging markets ¿ China, the Middle East, and parts of South America," Hartwig said. "But that's also the places where there is the most political risk. So incremental growth is going to be achieved with greater risk; that's the unfortunate nexus." http://www.axisinsurance.ca/news/despite-record-catastrophe-losses-a-hard-market-remains-elusive/

Battle turning sour... http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/897411/fibrek-s-board-rejects-unsolicited-insider-bid-by-abitibibowater-and-takes-additional-measures-to-ensure-shareholders-are-treated-fairly

By Matthew Goldstein http://www.4-traders.com/FAIRFAX-FINAN-HLDG-1409991/news/FAIRFAX-FINAN-HLDG-Exclusive-Steve-Cohen-calls-insider-trading-rules-vague-13932474/

Wonder how Fairfax establish the number of potential share repurchase. I mean if it were to buy back the 1,6 M shares indicated in their annual press release, at today's market price, that would be 640 M$ CND! Very unlikely...

This is weird. What's the point of renewing an offer at the same conditions? ???

What do you guys think of the value of the Euro in the near future (1 year or so) vs other currencies?

Hmm... SP up nicely lately... Looks like it'll cross CND $400 soon... must be due to some expectation of realized gains on bonds in Q3...

Thought some board members may be interested by this : Americans living in Canada are discovering that even if they haven't lived or worked in the United States in years, they're still required to fill out a U.S. tax return, and if they don't file returns by August 31, they could be facing some stiff financial penalties. Christina Simmons is a U.S. citizen who has been living and working in Windsor, Ont., as a professor for more than 25 years. She didn't learn until recently that the IRS has been cracking down on Americans who don't file forms declaring what's in their bank accounts along with their U.S. tax returns. "They're really enforcing it and there's going to be these really big fines if you don't do it," said Simmons. "I decided to get some help with it since I had never done the form before," she said. The Internal Revenue Service website has a 22-page document to help Americans living abroad, but there are no easy answers to be found there and many don't even know they have to file in the U.S. — a law which has been in place for years. The IRS has set up the Offshore Voluntary Disclosure Initiative, which is giving those who have broken the law, knowingly or not, a bit of a break. Applicants have until Aug. 31 to voluntarily file taxes and banking information dating back to 2003 in exchange for less severe civil penalties. "If it's an effort to solve the U.S. financial problems that's not going to help," said Simmons. "They just need to raise their tax rates which are incredibly low for the developed world, so that's what really bothers me. Canada, Europe, you know, people pay a lot more in taxes for good reasons." Gordon Lee, a Windsor, chartered accountant said he has been helping clients meet the Wednesday deadline. What confuses people is that most countries base taxation on residency, but in the U.S. taxation is based on citizenship, said Lee — citizens have to file from whatever country they live in, for as long as they live. "I think the undercurrent is they detest it," Lee said. "This is not what I do, telling people they have to pay penalties, but unfortunately the law is there and you better to pay the smaller penalties rather than the big penalties later." Lee said the U.S. government wants a piece of what's in Canadian retirement savings accounts, bank and investment accounts. "It's either five per cent, 12 and a half [percent], or 25 per cent depending on the circumstances," he said. In 2006 there were almost 7,000 Americans living in Windsor. Lee said those who cross the border into Michigan could be getting stopped in the near future if they haven't paid their dues to Uncle Sam. The chances of the IRS catching those who don't voluntarily file will go up in 2013 when a law requiring Canadian banks to share client information with the U.S. government takes effect. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Americans-Canada-unknowing-cbc-3885617959.html

Was felt here in southern Ontario... Not a fun experience at all... http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/08/earthquake_rocks_new_jersey_an.html

Wow! Tonight, 4 European countries decided to ban short sale. Sorry, only have the link in French : http://fr.news.yahoo.com/interdiction-des-ventes-%C3%A0-d%C3%A9couvert-en-belgique-france-212031531.html

Mr. Watsa has put Fairfax’s money where its mouth is, making investment decisions that cost the Toronto-based insurer substantially in 2010. The company increased the proportion of its stock portfolio that is hedged from 30 per cent to close to 100 per cent in May and June of last year. Its timing wasn’t perfect, and the move cost it $936.6-million as markets rose. I didn't follow this. Does he mean $936 M in unrealized losses? Otherwise this looks huge to me...?

Thank you both guys!

Page 19 : "Accounts receivable increased by $14.3 million mainly due to higher pulp sales prices and higher days sales outstanding due to customer mix when compared to December 31, 2010". Not sure what that means exactly...

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Solid-second-quarter-results-cnw-41685405.html?x=0&.v=1 Nothing very exciting IMO.

With all the incertainty surrounding the NA and Europe future, I'm surprised FFH is not fetching more than roughly book value, specially when one consider their hedged portfolio (CDS, deflation bet, etc.). Any thoughts?

Hi folks, In your opinion, how long will it take for the US/world economy to get out of this whole mess and starts expanding again? 1-2 years 2-5 years 5-7 years 7-10 years I know it depends on multiple factors, but let's just keep it simple...

This is great news! They know the country, its culture, the business community, etc. Considering India's social and demographic trends, their business ventures should do well.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+bubble+about+burst+research+firm+argues/5028916/story.html I think it's exagerated - a 10% drop is possible but not 25% IMO Now Vancouver area market is another story that has no correlation with the rest of the country.

If they could only take half of the FCF to institute a small dividend, it would help attract serious investors and put a floor on the s/p.

gaf63, Got the same email today. I'll send the letter this week-end. Hopefully it'll get there despite Canada Post strike...

Management seems to be active, giving presentations Canada and US-wide : http://www.renmarkfinancial.com/en/Clients/Fibrek-Inc So far, this hasn't paid off, but will eventually, I'm sure.

A.M. BEST AFFIRMS RATINGS OF ZENITH NATIONAL INSURANCE CORP. AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES A.M. Best Co. has affirmed the financial strength rating (FSR) of A (excellent) and issuer credit rating of a of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.'s Zenith National Insurance Group (Zenith Group) and its two property/casualty insurance company members, Zenith Insurance Company and ZNAT Insurance Company, which operate under an intercompany pooling agreement. Both companies are domiciled in Woodland Hills, Calif. Concurrently, A.M. Best has affirmed the ICR of bbb of Zenith National Insurance Corp. (ZNIC), an insurance holding company wholly owned by Fairfax Financial Holdings. The outlook for all ratings is stable. The ratings of the Zenith Group reflect its supportive level of risk-adjusted capitalization, historically strong operating performance and management's commitment to maintaining underwriting discipline through market cycles. The ratings also recognize the financial flexibility afforded the group through Fairfax. Somewhat offsetting these positive factors is the recent decline in Zenith Group's underwriting and operating performance, which have been driven by competitive market conditions and state mandated rate reductions in the group's largest states, along with weak macroeconomic conditions that have contributed to a reduction in the premium base. The concentration of Zenith Group's business in two states, California and Florida, exposes it to a heightened level of regulatory and legislative changes. The outlook reflects A.M. Best's expectation that the group will continue to outperform the workers' compensation peer group over the long term, as well as the support of Fairfax. In addition, A.M. Best has withdrawn the debt rating of bb plus on the capital securities issued by Zenith National Insurance Capital Trust I due to the capital securities being no longer outstanding. A.M. Best also has assigned a debt rating of bbb minus to the $38.4-million of 8.55-per-cent subordinated debentures of ZNIC, due 2028. The assigned outlook is stable. The subordinated debentures were issued by ZNIC in 1998 and had previously been owned by the trust. The assignment of a rating to ZNIC's subordinated debentures follows the trust's December, 2010, exchange of those securities for capital securities the trust issued in 1998. The capital securities were cancelled and the trust was dissolved subsequent to the 2010 exchange.

Estimated Profit, Thanks. Couldn't have said it better!

Sanj, The Euro will not survive in it's current form long-term. What do you foresee? What's the alternative to the Euro? I have a hard time envisionning a return to national currencies. What I think will happen is : - Very strict austerity measures will be applied. - You will get massive outcry by the populace...perhaps a large exodus of both people and capital. - The economy will suffer for the next several years, but will survive longer term. - They will stay a part of the union as the alternative isn't any better. for all those countries you cited : Spain, Italy, Belgium, Portugal, France, etc.

share buyback? Ooooppss, share consolidation.