dwy000

Sold a bunch of JPM. We are a long way from out of the woods and it's fully priced. The uncertainty and volatility are going to be felt in higher default rates and lower activity. Good chance to lighten up today.

Volatility can be your best friend (or your worst enemy depending upon how you play it). But this idea that nothing is a big deal is just false. Just because it usually works out doesnt mean it's wrong to react. Just like celebrating a massive up day today and pretending all is good is wrong when we still have huge tariffs in place globally and massive tariffs on one of our largest trading partners. Plus we have the ability to do it all again in 90 days. Because it almost always works itself out doesn't mean it's wise to ignore everything. As my old.boss used to say "you can run through a dynamite factory with a lit match and just because you came out the other side doesn't mean you're not a moron"

That's true when the micro exists in a rational macro. How do you analyze the micro for a car company or a pharma company when you have no idea what the macro will be for you in 30 days or 3 years.

Trump folded against everyone but raised the side bet with China. I'm guessing China is going to call.

And we get to do it all over again in 90 days. Who wants to bet the admin released a preview to selected friends a couple of hours in advance?

Exactly!!! But if you're forced to make a decision now or lose the opportunity to competitors you can't just do nothing or that becomes your decision.

Okay my detailed knowledge of JOE is limited so the direct analogy is limited. But if you're a company thinking of moving to that region, a retailer thinking of building out a store or facility, a homebuilder looking for land opportunities, or even a family considering a move there, all of this can be paralyzing. For any company that is valued based on future cash flows (not current ones), time is the biggest variable.

How do they not? Companies need to make decisions on and daily basis. If youre that homebuilder and you're leveraged, you can't just not make a decision (or.in fact that becomes the decision).

This was intended to be a joke right?

In this scenario, Trump is the newbie who goes all in every hand. That works really well against the short stacks and so-so hands. But eventually you're gonna get called. And when you do it's because somebody has a monster. China just called. EU called. Canada and Mexico called.

And that is exactly my point. For you and I sitting back watching a screen it is (potentially) opportunity. And it is even entertaining. For companies making long term decisions it is paralyzing. For people impacted it can be devastating. And all of that flows back into the "opportunity". If those homebuilders call up Jorge and tell him they're pausing discussions until this settles it could set JOE back 6 months, a year, or a lot more.

He also ran on no-tax-on-tips. But that one turns out to be the lie.

Okay so when Trump says yesterday he's going to put tariffs on pharma, is he lying? Is he truthful? Who do you even negotiate that with? Because that's affecting not just the pharma companies but also health insurers and most of all, people with prescriptions (which, being in Florida i have to assume is most of your neighbors). If you're a home builder in Florida trying to make a go/no go decision on a large development knowing that if tariffs are long term (or even medium term) it's going to destroy your returns (not to mention interest rate impacts too) what do you do? It's nice for us to sit back and chill out and watch the craziness but this is having real world and longer term impacts. And that affects the investment world.

As an investor, yes. But if you're Mary Barra at GM trying to make layoff decisions, pricing decisions and capital allocation decisions on a daily basis, it is paralyzing. Delta is probably leading the pack when it withdrew guidance today because they have no idea what's happening.

We hang on every word because he is the President!! He's not some schmuck analyst on CNBC. His words and actions have consequences. And if half the stuff he says is bullshit you're going to get whipsawed around trying to figure out which half.

Well I think we all assume Trump is lying, largely because that is his default position. But everyone also assumed he was lying about tariffs in the first place. And when it turned out he wasn't they all state, well he told you he was going to do that so why are you surprised? A good part of the volatility is because nothing Trump says can be taken at face value, until it is. Everyone here invests with a premium on management that are frank, truthful and honest. To have someone running the country who's the exact opposite is gonna do some damage.

Wait, you yourself suggested Lutnick was an idiot and he has repeatedly shown he is just talking whatever the admin tells him. Trump has tweeted the tariffs are not temporary and everyone has been saying Trump is doing exactly what he said he would. So is Trump lying or is Lutnick lying? You have also been a proponent of using the over reactions to your advantage (which i agree with!). But to do that you have take a view as to what the outcome is likely to be. And if you're wrong it could cost a lot of money

That works for highly discretionary products. For non-discretionary you can't just stop buying.

Try, you buy it for $7 and sell it for $10 and after costs you make $0.50. Most retailers have net margins of single digits (or close to zero if you're Amazon). If the tax adds $1 you either raise prices or lose money.

In a normal process the cratered demand would result in a lowering of prices. Since the price increase is due to taxes, that's not possible.

Theres no question it will lead to higher prices. Whether you want to qualify that as "inflation" because it's not the goods that are more expensive, it's the taxes on them, is somewhat semantic. The outcome is higher prices for consumers.

Other country bonds (ones that dont screw you after you buy them). Cash. High grade corporates. Something where investors have faith the issuer will keep to the terms.

Is it a safe haven if they can change the terms and force you to take something you didn't want? The whole concept of safe haven would be gone.

Nobody would ever buy a US t bond again. Why would you?

And now pharmaceuticals will be tariffed (according to trump 5 minutes ago). Who exactly is this intended to benefit and how?