dwy000

Given the bond market dwarfs the equity market, on a $ basis there's a lot more money worrying about beating the bond index than the stock market.

From the 2 minutes of research I did it would appear that the 12%+ difference between the YTD returns on the S&P 500 and the DJIA might be the largest ever (or at least in a very long time). Trying to figure out what the takeaway from that should be. Historically there's been almost lockstep reversion in these. Is it likely that the DJIA outperforms over the coming year(s) or is this the new normal as the Mag 7 continue to dominate?

The problem with tying tariffs to made-in-the-usa is that ramping up US made production takes a lot of time and a massive amount of money. It also takes a great deal of low cost labor that is not available here (and will get worse with deportations). No savvy management would do that if a new administration is likely to reverse those tariffs (or this one changes their mind because they had a nice dinner). There is a structural cost disadvantage in the US that you can't, and shouldn't, bandaid over with tariffs that are paid locally. If US firms can use technology and efficiency to compete on manufacturing, that's where the investment and policies should focus.

What the hell kind of attack is that? It looks more like target practice. North Korea might be doing more damage to their reputation as a credible military threat than anything by showing how woefully unprepared and unskilled they are.

I just added some more CI

Yes. But if theres a murder a day (and NYC has one of the lower violent crime rates of large US cities) how many do you actually hear about if you're not actively searching it out? That guy at McDonalds who called him in was in a whole different state and would never have even known what to look for if it wasn't such a high profile case.

Certain cases capture the public's attention more than others. Natalie Holloway, Gabby Petito, Alex Murdaugh, etc. This one had all the hallmarks to do so - targeted brazen shooting with a silencer in NYC, high profile rich target, CEO of a maligned industry that would please a lot of people, a suspect who was attractive and eluded police, etc. It's straight out of a Dateline episode. High media profile results in a lot of police attention, much more than a case that nobody hears about.

Is there any reason the industry is taking it on the chin today? Was there an analyst downgrade of the major players? I dont normally care about daily moves but this was large and across the board. Worried i missed some news. They are all down like 4-5%.

Absolutely would!!! Unfortunately those with low income, those over 50, those overweight and those with chronic disease would still be unable to afford care. Insurance is a nightmare. But in the current system they are the only party putting a brake pedal on costs.

Look at how much the large health insurers plummeted this year when their utilization rates on Medicare rose a couple of points. And they're repricing and dropping Medicare coverage for coming years. They can be less of an asshole, just pay out and charge for it but they'd lose half their customers on higher premiums. Everyone wants phenomenal coverage and every drug.and every test and treatment when their family is sick. And hospitals want to over care and over charge. So the only brake pedal is insurer. But then people also want low premiums and deductibles and no exclusions. It's just an impossible bridge to gap. The craziest name on that denials chart was Kaiser. They combine insurance and hospital. And they're denying their own coverage!

I don't think that's entirely true. The providers will be capped on what the insurers will pay but they generally will directly charge the consumer for an excess. If you go to hospital you will get a bill showing headline price, negotiated discount price for that insurers customers, how much the insurer paid and then you are supposed to pay the difference.

They reconfirmed 2025 earnings last night in advance of the investor update so it would probably reflect that

Without a national healthcare system (which has its own major issues) it's never going to change. Providers want maximum care at maximum price. Insurers want minimal care at minimum price. And people want maximum care at minimal price. The factors will never gibe.

So is the problem the insurer, who's goal is to reduce the cost, or the providers who have no restrictions on what they charge?

From what I've read, the President is required to remove the Martial Law order without delay once Parliament votes to override it. If he doesn't, things aren't so clear. I'm kinda scratching my head to see how this turns out as a positive for the President. Unless he is successful in turning South Korea into North Korea this looks lime political suicide. He will likely be thrown in jail.