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Everything posted by Liberty
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Maybe I wasn't clear, but when I said "early stage", I meant startup/pre-IPO, which is when it can be hardest to attract top-level employees and when going fill SBC might seem like it makes most sense. SBC is reported. Anyone half-sophisticated looks at it and takes it into account. It's not free money or free margins or free higher-multiples..
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I'm not saying it's a new idea that he invented from scratch. Of course it's basically a restatement of "management quality matters a lot" and he explains some of the reasons why. In investing, all the important ideas are basic. We just forget them constantly, so we have to revisit them over and over again and hope for incremental insights and better memory scaffolds so they are easier to recall and apply when needed and such. That's my method anyway, good for you if you can look at something once and never relearn it and apply it perfectly going forward.
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Yes, Fleabag is also great. I just can’t watch this when my son is around. ;D. That’s the thing with Netflix, they have a lot of foreign TV. I am sucker for Brit TV and now Netflix also has a lot of German TV series, Chinese and Korean costume movies and who knows what else. Amazon Prime has one of this too, but no ones else comes close. To get these things one needed to buy a special subscription, which would cost quite a bit, now it is included in Netflix and Amazon “all inclusive” streaming buffet. Disney can’t beat that, but of course they have another angle. I haven't seen them yet, but I've heard good things about 'Dark' (German) and 'Money Heist' (Spain -- La Casa Del Papel). -
I think it makes a lot of sense, and is along the lines of what I've been thinking for a long time about the high value of certain attributes of businesses that aren't easily quantified. You may dislike the writing style, but the fact that the adaptability/resilience of a business/management team is worth something is definitely true. Something being hard to quantify doesn't mean it should be ignored (nobody said investing was supposed to be easy).
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Interesting read: https://www.nzscapital.com/sitalweek/redefining-margin-of-safety (btw, when I post these things it doesn't necessarily mean that I agree with everything, or even most things in it. Sometimes yes, but please don't just assume it -- lots of things are worth reading and thought-provoking without being perfect)
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
I'm just 6/8th of the way through season 1, but I can recommend "Killing Eve". This season has Phoebe Waller-Bridge as showrunner, and it shows. The writing is really good. She's the main actor and writer of the also great show 'Fleabag' (Amazon Prime Video). I've seen the first season of that and really liked it. -
This year's Faber interview with John Malone: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/21/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-liberty-media-chairman-john-malone.html Edit: Youtube link:
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Found this company that does basically the Horvath Clock test on your epigenetic material: https://www.mydnage.com/ David Sinclair is on the board of the sister company Zymo Research: https://www.mydnage.com/aboutus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock
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It means you have to play a different game. If you try to do short-term stuff, it probably won't work. But almost nobody on wall street, quant or old school, is doing long-term investing. Some talk about it, but few do it.
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Yeah, I had a look at it, and I can mostly see how he's not talking necessarily about the same things as Walker (ie. a lot of epidemiology is dubious because you can't untangle the variables and confounding factors and there's a lot of bad self-reporting.. See this series on studies... for example, does a cohort that sleep more also has a higher tendency to depression/health problems? Is a cohort that sleeps less, but less sick, skewed by young parents, so benefiting from young age, not less sleep, vs older cohort?). Matt Walker, the head of a sleep lab who knows everybody else doing studies in the field, is likely taking into account more data and more different kinds of sources and weighting them differently based on their strengths and weaknesses, while this dude has never studied the field before and spent some time on Google Scholar for a while, apparently with the explicit goal of contradicting the book (sample bias? cherry picking?)... it’s analogous to going to your doctor and talking about the stuff you googled the night before and claiming you now have expertise. I'd put more weight on mechanistic studies or studies about how humans sleep when they're out in nature without alarm clocks and artificial lights and such, for example, than large scale self-reported surveys with a thousand confounding factors. Anyway, good to raise questions, but I've seen some people jump on this and declare the whole book worthless (probably because they just want to go back to not caring about sleep -- motivated reasoning), which is just bad thinking. Even the WHO sleep epidemic thing.. I've Google many other pre-book references to those terms. There's a lot of people at the WHO. Did they use those words in a conference but not in writing? Is Matt Walker describing their research with different words than them, yet in a fair way? There's a lot of gray zones that could be looked into before calling something made up BS...
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Brooklyn Investor post on Buffett/Berkshire
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
New post: https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-it-takes-dimon-twitter-etc.html -
https://twitter.com/DannyDutch/status/1194886790118809600
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Not really, that's an older theory that doesn't seem to be central to it (possibly one aspect of it).
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Got my copy of the book today. Looking forward to it.
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Thanks for sharing. Curious where you live when you're not in Patagonia?
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Are Renaissance Technologies just trend followers?
Liberty replied to RuleNumberOne's topic in General Discussion
Seriously. These guys are better than Buffett: That's after charging 44% fees or something, yes. But they also capped their funds at a much smaller amount of capital than Buffett... It's all very different, but in the end, both are making tons of money and at the top of their fields. -
Akre on Wealthtrack again:
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Are Renaissance Technologies just trend followers?
Liberty replied to RuleNumberOne's topic in General Discussion
Nothing these guys do is "just" something. Otherwise everybody else would do it. -
That's cool. I won't ask about your company just in case that could get you in trouble, but I'm curious to know what you think of the closest analog (bad pun), TXN?
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Was it AMD? No. I still work at the company (or rather I should say, I now work there again), so I'd rather not say. Ticker does start with an A though. Followed by a D and an I. That team in Texas that was doing this no longer exists though, they didn't survive the 2000 crash. Oh, so you're an analog engineer. Nice. We should talk about that at some point. Also interesting how management in the space seems to be pretty rational about capital allocation..
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Cool stories. Thanks for sharing. I played guitar for a while, but I always was more an appreciator of music than a musician. I think my syneshtesia might make it harder for me to hear/visualize pitch the way others do (it's not so ordered for me, more a jumble of shapes and colors), and that was always a hindrance learning more advanced techniques and figuring things by ear. Oh well ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Naturally, such kind of exchange of information is subject to all kinds of censorship here on CoBF. Don't get any ideas! - You stay here! I don't add much to financial discussions here (surprise), but I get a ton of value from reading all you guys, so I'll be hanging around for a while, and occasionally throwing my bent, f'ed up, 2 pennies in. I'm curious about what kind of music boards Liberty visits. Are there some good theoretical & practical discussions going on about popular music of the present & past (I'd find that super helpful & would be able to contribute bigly)? I don't frequent music forums anymore, but I used to be very active on a few in the late 90s and early 2000s. Some were about underground metal ((death metal, black metal, grindcore, industrial, various scandinavian sub-genres, etc), and some were more general, covering folk, jazz, classical, electronic, rock, fusion, prog, etc, and all the various crossbreedings. Mostly about sharing with others good albums we discovered, getting recommendations, reviewing albums, etc.