bathtime

DMRC. IMO, still cheap even after today's 20% move. Current market cap equivalent to legacy central banks business. Platform optionality starting to come together - of which plastics/recycling is just one of many markets. Baillie Gifford (longterm TSLA investors) owns 6%. https://www.digimarc.com/about/news-events/press-releases/2020/09/08/digimarc-at-center-of-pan-european-development-of-digital-watermarking-for-improved-plastic-sortation-and-recycling

I feel happy when my returns are good but I’m not claiming to be a good investor. Although I do think I could add value to an investment enterprise because I like to think I am a very good explorer of ideas. It’s also helpful to know that life is not about money. I’ve taken calculated risk, usually concentrated positions, watched them closely, and sometimes it has worked out and sometimes it hasn’t. I wasn’t sure that posting good returns publicly here was a good idea as it invites hubris. But I did work my ass off, and struggled to get them, so it was a way to give myself a pat on the back since I don’t really have other people in my life I can talk to about this stuff. I probably won’t post anything more about these returns as all things being equal I probably just got lucky in one form or another.

2018: 53% 2017: -32% 2016: 362% Feel good about these last three years of returns. I use a value/growth/special situations strategy. Styles aside my biggest strength is being a good researcher and synthesizing investment ideas from value investors in the field This is my IRA so taxes are not a factor. Should have stayed in high cash levels once the market started to crack this year, but obviously I’m grateful overall. Between 1998 and 2010 I averaged 20% returns a year in my non-retirement accounts. And then screwed that account up by making macro bets against the market. Hopefully I’ve learned some lessons over the years. Biggest winner was Aimia. Biggest mistake was riding energy down in the last quarter.

I think we can all read the tea leaves here. Energold is up 5% today, which implies that Buffett began accumulating on Calonego's advice - given that Calonego is partnered with Kuppy. Which implies that Buffett wants Calonego to succeed him at Berkshire and is wining and dining him. Which also implies that Buffett badly wants YAK's insurance business. So much so that Buffett may be considering a 50/50 merger to both secure the new market and a new heir to the throne at Berkshire Hathaway. Clearly. ;)

We need an Instagram pic, Parsad! ;)

In Google Trends searches for "Bitcoin" have also gone parabolic: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&data-ipsquote-timestamp=1%2F2006%2089m&cmpt=q It has now surpassed "Megan Fox". However, it remains below "bieber", who is trumped by "gold". :D http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%2C%20megan%20fox%2C%20bieber%2C%20gold&data-ipsquote-timestamp=1%2F2006%2089m&cmpt=q

I stumbled upon a Bitcoin forum tonight, wow, it's highly active. I didn't realize people are so enamored with it, it's an entire subculture. https://bitcointalk.org/ This piece by someone who says they put all their money into Bitcoin last spring gave me some insight into the mindset of Bitcoin supporters. Wow, you could buy 10 thousand Bitcoin for $50 two years ago! http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ "Normal currencies vary by a few percent over the course of a year. Not bitcoin. On March 30 of last year, somebody asked for $50 for 10,000 BTC (bitcoin) in the trading and wasn’t taken up on the offer. He got an offer of $25. Still, somebody claimed in the thread that the going rate was about USD 6.50 per thousand bitcoin. That’s per thousand. So while there are conflicting numbers between $2.50 and $6.50 as the rate for 1,000 BTC, let’s be conservative and go with the higher $6.50 per thousand BTC and compare it to today. As of midnight UTC on May 29, 2011, the rate is USD 8.30 per bit coin." Wow, you could buy 1

On the anecdotal side, recently I have had several friends and acquaintances - none of whom focus on the market - broaching the subject of stock market highs and either commenting on how the market is doing well and/or looking to get more exposed to the market.

With the British having a longtime military presence on the island with two prominent bases, not to mention the UN presence, I don't see Russia landing a military base. Neither the British or NATO would be happy and the British aren't going to give theirs up. I can't imagine Cyprus would be pleased either - who wants multiple foreign military bases on your soil? Some financial writer suggested Cyprus workout a bailout from Turkey in exchange for a new peace agreement. Highly unlikely prospect. About as likely to happen as the Democrats and Republicans forming a unity party. There is such deep animosity between the two sides. Stasis is a more powerful force than an outside journalist can see. Since I have personal experience with Cyprus, including family there, it's odd to see it in the headlines daily. For me it illuminates that when countries are put under the the moment to moment microscope of the media in the midst of a financial crisis they can seem otherworldly, a pawn subject to the whims of larger forces. But it's just an ordinary place like everywhere else - change doesn't come easily.

My cousin and his family are from the UK and live in California - where he started a business. He's looking to invest in a project that meets the criteria for obtaining a green card via the U.S. government's EB-5 Immigrant Investor program. The stipulation for investment is, "You must invest $1,000,000, or at least $500,000 in a targeted employment area (high unemployment or rural area)." The business must create at least ten full-time jobs. (Government's page on the program: http://1.usa.gov/9RItQM) Common areas of investment for green card investors are ski resorts and hotels: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/us/31vermont.html http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/visas-for-dollars-program-a-boon-to-hotel-developers/ Has anyone dealt with this and found any investment projects that meet the criteria, yet would also appeal to a value investor? Thanks!

FWIW, Cara's RSI tool based on daily/weekly/monthly time frames just triggered a sell signal on index ETFs SPY, IWM, and DIA. http://rsi.caracommunity.com/RSIApp/RSIApp.html#spy%20dia%20iwm

Thank you for the "Les Miserables" recommendation. I will put it on my short list and have always liked Hugh Jackman - would loved to have seen his one man show on Broadway. The new "Anna Karenina" was very much a positive surprise for me. I can't remember the last time I saw a director take such an artistic leap forward. I felt the film visually pushed the cinematic medium in a way that is unusual. I wasn't a fan of director Joe Wright's last film Hanna, and didn't find his prior work "Atonement" and "Pride and Prejudice" striking. "Anna Karenina" would definitely make my best of 2012 list, though it would be hard to top the Iranian film "A Separation."

Would he have known of the issue LEI has with paying the note before going on board? Wondering if it was priced in to his investment.

Nicely done indeed.

A family friend works in the same field. He doesn't have any information other than that there have been rumors/whispers from ex-employees of Olam and others near the company of current irregularities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/olam-slumps-after-muddy-waters-block-questions-accounts.html The latest target from Muddy Waters. Their concerns may be well-founded regarding Olam, bargain hunters stay away! In 2011 there were questions on their accounting too: http://www.theedgesingapore.com/component/content/26682.html?task=view

Wow, the sums of money mentioned in that NYT article are astonishing. This and the Russian oligarchs rise must be among the biggest money grabs in history. I read this and can't help but think that a day will come when the music stops for the Chinese boom - per the rationale for Watsa's bet against China.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/10/22/121022fa_fact_osnos?currentPage=all Thought this was a great article giving color on the Chinese boom as seen through the too-fast development of it's modern rail network. Some stunning stories of corruption and graft!

Thanks, west. Interesting to hear another perspective. It's almost as if you're describing some passages from the Steve Jobs bio. I've made it halfway through and he was more of a nightmare to work with than I thought - at least in the early years. Maybe Musk has a faster learning curve (and fewer demons), I'm actually really impressed by the Model S after reading the NYT review. If I had the money, I might buy one myself. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/automobiles/autoreviews/one-big-step-for-tesla-one-giant-leap-for-evs.html

My parents were neighbors with a designer at Tesla and apparently the designer thought Musk ran the company in haphazard fashion - frustratingly so. I have the impression that he is a great visionary, but a poor CEO - at least when it comes to building a car company from scratch, which must be one of the harder things to do successfully.

Thanks, interesting read. The New Yorker had a good "inside" profile on Obama in January. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/01/30/120130fa_fact_lizza I think Mitt just lost the election with the release of that fundraising video today. The optics are terrible.

Fwiw, DELL triggered a buy on Bill Cara's RSI tool on Friday: http://rsi.caracommunity.com/RSIApp/RSIApp.html#dell "Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2012-09-14 at $10.83, +0.00% chg], after a 15 day AZ)" To put its use into context, here's Bill Cara's recent exchange with a commenter. ----- I would like to thank Bill for his RSI tool and how great it is. A buy alert for VALE came up on 9/6 and i got in at 16.96 and it has shot up. Thanks for the great tool! ----- I'm happy you are happy! But, in its simplest form, RSI has an average performance of all the indicators. You might have been looking at several factors subconsciously before making that decision. In fact I know that any one indicator is not enough, and when it does appear to be working really well, the market will adjust until it doesn't. I have always said that to invest successfully, we need a tool kit and then approach the decision making with the same common sense that the typical business person does. ----

I think the new design/larger screen is a beautiful refinement of the iPhone, so while some don't see much change, I see this version as being a major advancement. All that said, I am no longer sure I will get one once my contract rolls over. I'm on Verizon and it's not possible to be on the phone and access the web (unless on wifi) at the same time - something that's possible on AT&T. This is a disappointment to me as I am able to perform this function on my HTC Thunderbolt on Verizon, as do many other Android phones: http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/13/iphone-5-calls-data/

Brilliant! I love how he thinks about things.

http://blogs.forrester.com/tim_sheedy/12-07-10-can_dell_be_your_strategic_vendor_in_asia_pacific ----- However, I was pleasantly surprised – Dell is reinventing itself from a PC and server supplier into an IT solutions provider. The benefits of the acquisition of Perot Systems and various software assets in North America and around the globe are starting to pay dividends in Asia Pacific. As a late entrant into many of the newer markets they play in, they have the rare advantage of being able to do things differently – both from a solution and a pricing standpoint. From data centre transformation through legacy migration and application modernisation, to networking solutions, Dell is attempting to be disruptive player in the market – simplifying processes that were typically human-centric, and automating capabilities to reduce the overall burden of owning and running infrastructure. Their strategy is to stay close to what they know – much of their capability is linked directly to infrastructure – but their open, modular, and somewhat vendor agnostic approach is in direct opposition to the “vendor lock-in” solutions that many of the other major vendors push. A key strength for Dell’s solutions business (outside of hardware) in Asia Pacific is, and will continue to be, their focus on companies below the Fortune 500– and in Japan they are starting to steal big accounts from the traditional IT services providers. Many vendors are focused on the top end of town – and spend much of their sales energies winning these clients, and their support energies keeping them happy. Dell is good at winning and supporting solutions engagements the next tier down – which represents many companies in Asia Pacific. -------------