bathtime

Do you feel like volatility has increased in individual equities compared to 5 or 10 years ago? I feel like it has significantly. But maybe there are stats on that somewhere.

Well here’s Kuppy’s latest thinking out of the box

I think the plan is a combo of first to market w/FDA approval, anticipated patent on a specific formulation, and patents on specific indications for use.

I’ll add healthcare, in the vein of what Hemant Taneja is working on at General Catalyst. Then a subset of that is mental health. And a part of that is psychedelics for therapeutic use. I’m on the West coast and innovators in the therapeutic scene are pivoting towards integrating psychedelic therapeutics. Anyone own CMPS?

Ha. The fanboys think she’s going to make it a fintech, by moving into payments. But she threw cold water on that in a Tweet response and said it was an e-commerce company not a fintech. There was a time when everyone hated SNAP’s business prospects. So I’m wondering if WISH can pull off a transformation. Plenty of cash and they’re pulling way back on ad spend. Which is probably Reses’ counsel. New CFO is next move. If GME can moon from just ex Amazon hires. Maybe WISH can do a similar but less dramatic org shift.

WISH. Everyone seems to dislike this company except for some of the WSB herd. I still can’t understand why Jackie Reses, who was brilliant at Square, would join full time. She could have had any job she wanted. Any job. And she took a comp package that has $20-$30+ on the shares for payout. Is the goal to shape up the business and sell? Revamp strategy? You know she has a plan.

Nice, I started a little high at $4. Benefit I see compared to many other SPACS is that Ackman will more likely be buying an already profitable company. So there’ll be a reasonable growth compounding over five years to support equity/warrant appreciation.

At $16/share, if underwriters exercise their option for additional shares, CRBU has market cap of approx. $916m with cash of approx. $398m. Seems like a relative value compared to other CRISPR companies.

Thanks, that's great color on both Caribou and other CRISPR names! Appreciate it. And really interesting to hear that you've been tracking it for so long — and rate the IP as quality.

What’s your thesis on CRBU in relation to other CRISPR companies? Thanks!

PSTH as a money market proxy.

What points did you find interesting? Less his logic and more that he was encouraging them to HODL even after the big price drop today. Which will give them the motivation to continue to try to pump it.

GME. ;) Just a few shares in the 70s as an option on volatility. Mark Cuban made some interesting points on the WSB AMA this morning.

DBX

nspo, what's your take on INMD and their devices? I saw Ibex has it as a top holding, and I respect their research. However, management looks a bit sketchy, as elaborated on in this short piece: http://www.mavalue.org/research/inmd-dont-get-your-face-burned-off/

PYCO, thanks Gregmal. GBTC, as a hedge against not having GBTC. Premium dropped as low as 7-8% this morning. TSLA Jan 2022 puts, as a hedge against my disappointment if TSLA collapses and I don’t participate.

If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end. I’m finally getting my thick skull to realize that. Have wasted way too much time trying to make money off O&G in the last 15 years.

Curious what date/strike? Had some Dec 11 $25s in my cross hairs today but held off as $2 for 2 weeks seemed a tad steep. I did the Jan 15 30-strike puts. I’m not an expert with options. I read today that 160m shares come out of lockup on Dec. 1, so I put on a small trade. Yes, premium so steep it’s hard to put on a bigger position.

Bought NKLA puts. Agreed, has some parallels to ‘99.

AT, WBA

HZNP

Yes, VSAT is interesting as Baupost has that board observer role. And with their recent investment in high 30s a 24% stake. So they’re not short on inside knowledge. Just wonder what they see of value given LEO threat.

A few I’m bookmarking: SATS, VSAT (Klarman still buying), Discovery, INTC.

Anyone planning a tax-loss selling buy list? Ideas? Given this strange year in the markets I’ve not given it much thought. But in past years year-end has often been a source of great trades. With energy starting to get a bid, for example, I don’t know if it will see a further sell-off from tax selling. But if it did that’s one area I’d be looking for buys.

Selling my trading position in DMRC, after the 80% move in three weeks, keeping the core.