merkhet

Political ads also depend on their ability to fundraise, and they hadn't seemed to have kicked into high gear yet prior to the COVID situation -- so I wouldn't be surprised if they are leaning more on their direct mail lists as people have less money to contribute. I have a friend who is a Congresswoman, and I'm seeing a heck of a lot more e-mails from her campaign lately.

I have always loved HEB. Us Texans are very proud of this grocery store. If it were public, I’d definitely own a chunk of it.

If there's enough political will, we should honestly put an infrastructure bill to work. We missed our chance in the last crisis and the state of our infrastructure is pretty pathetic.

The Churchill quote about how Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else comes to mind. I have no love lost for this President, but I thought this was a good presser and will likely change people’s attitudes towards this virus.

Actually, my quip wasn't direct at you. There was someone else who (seemingly seriously) was describing this as an extinction level event on a different thread (not this one or the joke thread). I thought your backtest joke was funny. :)

Though it is unfortunate, I think it is less odd considering the following factors related to how people process information: 1) A large number of contributors to the board are US based. Donald Trump was a bit distracted at the time this got started and at that time he felt it was in his interest to minimize and politicize what was then known as Wuhan Coronavirus. Once Trump tells a lie, he NEVER goes back on it. For example, all of his businesses have been great successes and none of them have ever failed, blah, blah, blah. He NEVER admits he was wrong. That's part of his schtick. He just keeps doubling down. It's more important to him to seem confident than to be right or truthful, so he's not going to change his tune. 2) Members of this board who started with the attitude of its just a cold and have been arguing that will have difficulty changing their opinion. Some already have but some may have a hard time ever changing their opinion no matter how this ultimately turns out. This is basic cognitive dissonance, anchoring and adjustment bias, etc. The ones who have argued the most strongly and confidently will have the most trouble updating their estimates. To paraphrase Munger they are "pounding in their own stupidity". 3) Some people spend a lot of time arguing in the politics section and that has probably changed the way their brains work with respect to issues like this. Do something enough and it rewires your brain. There are also issues related specifically to understanding this virus such as: 1) A lot of people are not well educated about how healthcare actually works. 2) The other big issue is that you really need to slow down and use the slow logical part of your brain and really look at how easily the medical system can be overwhelmed. 3) In many cases both sides are right. The true distribution of fatality rates around the world will probably end up being roughly bi-modal. Some countries like South Korea will likely end up clustered around 0.5% other countries are going to end up clustered around 4%. For each developed country there was a point at which they could chose which group they would join. Finally, I think there are issues around communication: 1) We are all making a living investing or doing something else. Time for posting is limited 2) Communicating complex thoughts and being well understood in writing is more time consuming for most than verbally in person. 3) This topic is new to many and that may make it harder to communicate effectively. 4) For members of this board this is a matter of personal health, public health and investing opportunities. In haste, it is probably being lost at times which element posters mean to emphasize when making their comments. Some people are also thinking about politics, but hopefully they will take that to the politics section. 5) This is the first time I can think of when there are investment decisions to be made and large geographically diverse portion of this board is facing a certain major change to their lives due to the disruptions and a high likelihood of local health emergencies. All of those things at once complicates things. Some people are emphasizing making a buck, others are emphasizing their own health. Merket, you've been a good friend in real life, as have many others on this board. I suspect the fact that many of us are friends in real life is causing some of us to be concerned for each others portfolios and health. As a result, some of us are probably pushing harder than we would otherwise. Thanks for taking the time to write the longer version of what I’ve been thinking myself! I think the bi-modal distribution is a really important thing to keep in mind. Policy decisions/actions are going to be the thing that determines the difference between a South Korea-like situation (likely the “natural”* CFR) or an Italy-like situation (overwhelmed healthcare system “exacerbated”* CFR) Hope you’re staying safe up there in Boston! *natural/exacerbated are not quite the right words here but the best I can come up with at the moment

Is it just me or is the polarization on this thread odd to other people too? It seems like a lot of people are either in the (1) it's just the flu and a nothingburger or (2) omfg this is going to overwhelm everything camps. (I'm throwing out the dude on the other thread who said this is an "extinction level event" because... I mean, come on.) Where are my "this is concerning, and we are watching developments with caution" folks?

Fairly good interview with Scott Gottlieb https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/03/09/coronavirus-past-containment-but-usa-can-limit-epidemic-scott-gottlieb/5007417002/

Schools are adjusting to this as we speak. Princeton just sent out a notice to students that they are encouraging their students to stay home after spring break and that the University will make sure they can meet their academic requirements remotely.

Gates-funded program will soon offer home-testing kits for new coronavirus https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/gates-funded-program-will-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-new-coronavirus/

Same in Japan https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-sees-silver-lining-to-coronavirus-as-flu-cases-drop-11583073526?emailToken=0d0cd86f7ca4e1bb39f1260bd954dab8BpTZVLkuH9nvT+tmO+ukgiKYOvG5o23e5siUX13gKGMmcECsfkljfb7+GMpn0PcVtL0e93gP9VHPfh+4hs/tt/xiKm/yFuBV3TpuiO/WusZQaGwq+31xLhTneq3Xu552&reflink=article_copyURL_share It will be interesting to see if this helps with the idea of additive capacity strain. My understanding is that the biggest bottleneck/pain point that people should be worried about is whether COVID-19 creates additional serious cases at the same time that we must deal with serious flu cases — both of which require hospital care, beds, ventilators, etc. However, public policy or awareness could help blunt the demands on the healthcare system. Whether it’s enough to keep us under the capacity threshold is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ though. Second order effects are always fascinating.

Dalal.Holdings, At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.] In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking. Allow me to bring a slightly different view here. Dalal, we’ve actually corresponded on this before, but it seems like most of your posts here include some form of ridicule or attempt to dig on the intelligence of other people on this forum. I’ll ask you the same thing as I did last time. Do you think this helps your goal of informing/persuading others? Or do you believe it hurts it? Are you being effective in your goal? The last time we spoke about this, you seemed to indicate that you thought you may have over-imitated Munger in your posts here, so I would ask you to invert. How would you make it so that people are significantly less likely to listen to you? And this isn’t necessarily limited to Dalal.Holdings, btw. He just happens to be the latest person to do it on this thread. merkhet, And by which line of communication - here on CoBF - have you been having this line of communication with Dalal.Holdings? https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/nintendo-ntdoy/msg303468/#msg303468

Dalal.Holdings, At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.] In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking. Allow me to bring a slightly different view here. Dalal, we’ve actually corresponded on this before, but it seems like most of your posts here include some form of ridicule or attempt to dig on the intelligence of other people on this forum. I’ll ask you the same thing as I did last time. Do you think this helps your goal of informing/persuading others? Or do you believe it hurts it? Are you being effective in your goal? The last time we spoke about this, you seemed to indicate that you thought you may have over-imitated Munger in your posts here, so I would ask you to invert. How would you make it so that people are significantly less likely to listen to you? And this isn’t necessarily limited to Dalal.Holdings, btw. He just happens to be the latest person to do it on this thread.

There are a number of benefits to block transactions.

Overcast here. It’s the best I’ve found.

Merry Christmas everybody!

During the time that Denny Meyer's operated in NYC, retail rent has gone through the roof. When you sign a restaurant lease from 10-20 years ago in NYC, it becomes a huge asset. That's why you see people simply closing up shop when their lease run out in NYC despite having booming sales. Union Square Cafe no longer being in Union Square is one of the best examples of this.

If I'm an employee, I'm pissed that he leaves a billionaire while the company is on the brink of bankruptcy and my options are worthless. I'm also pissed I didn't get an opportunity to cash out as well I'm surprised that's even legal. I worked for a company a good while ago that got bought out. The chief executives could cash out their stock and options right away because they had a provision for accelerated vesting, the common serfs didn’t . The wheels came off quite quickly after the merger. Some animals are more equal than others. Fantastic Animal Farm reference.

No idea. T-Mobile streams their calls (w/ video) on YouTube, and I sort of love them for it.

if the current business doesn't work, they can always diversify into weed to achieve their mission :D WeHigh?

That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO. God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House. Texas has an open primary, so I will be voting in the Democratic primary for the first time in my life to try and help that not happen.

From a twitter account I follow: "he's gonna make the Fed more hawkish and the SCOTUS more liberal than they otherwise would be because he is a complete moron" I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021.

I wish Overcast would find a way to integrate with Alexa or even Waze. Small improvement but would probably lower friction for more usage.

I believe SDNY has indicated that they will continue to go after the co-conspirators.