captkerosene
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Everything posted by captkerosene
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<i>The single best example which destroys the idea that the IQ of a population predicts success is the Russian Jews (Rose Blumpkin was a Russian Jew) who migrated to the US from 1880-1910. When they first came to the US their IQs were tested during WWI and found to be among the lowest. Their rise from extreme poverty to parity with American levels is unprecedented in American immigrant history. No group has achieved greater success in less time. Russian Jews are now thought to have higher IQs than the rest of Americans and a disproportionate number of Nobel prize winners are Russian Jews. For example Feynman, Glashow and Weinberg are all Russian Jews from NY. </i> Jewish is a religion, not a race. Ashkenazi Jews score the highest in the world in IQ. Sadly, the rest of the Jews are not so lucky. The average IQ in Isreal is only 90. Your example suggests to me a conclusion exactly opposite your hypothesis. IQ can be measured and it predicts success.
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But, the best predictor of success in life is IQ. Multiply a 20 point IQ deficit across a billion people and you end up with a lot of needy people. They drain the resources that would otherwise go towards funding infrastructure and investment. Taxes go up and wealth gets redistributed. <i>Again, that's rubbish! Buffett and Munger have high IQ's, but Buffett has said numerous times that he would not be successful if he had been born to parents in Bangladesh and would have probably ended up as a Lion's meal if born in parts of Africa.</i> I think you, and WEB, made my point better than I did.
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The Mongolians seem to have done pretty well given their lack of resources and difficult neighbors. I suppose I would consider investing there if the right circumstances arose. (The Khan boys took over much of the world.) Prem is brilliant and I'm a huge fan. I suspect that Prem will do very well in India - I'm much less certain that india will do well. I'm sure that there are thousands, no, millions, no, tens of millions of people from India that are much smarter than me (or is it I?). I wonder why so many of them chose to leave? But, the best predictor of success in life is IQ. Multiply a 20 point IQ deficit across a billion people and you end up with a lot of needy people. They drain the resources that would otherwise go towards funding infrastructure and investment. Taxes go up and wealth gets redistributed. It's never in good taste to insult someone's countrymen or relatives. That isn't my intention. My intention is simply to bring attention to something that most people are unaware of. I think I'll pass on investing in Jamaica and probably Haiti too. Although I'm happy to contribute to charities that alleviate human suffering anywhere.
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The average IQ in India is 82. While at the same time the average IQ in China is 100. Prem may find some real gems there but I don't like investing in places with low IQs.
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
captkerosene replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Nothing in that article bothered me. Let the guy be himself - he's earned it. -
Memo from Ajit Jain to GenRe Employees
captkerosene replied to Poor Charlie's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Not a surprise that Agit is given control of GenRe. More evidence that he will run all of the insurance units post WEB. -
2016 Berkshire Shareholder Passes on eBay
captkerosene replied to merkhet's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I'm not sure if that question was for me or not. I was detained for several hours last time I flew into Canada. Never again. -
2016 Berkshire Shareholder Passes on eBay
captkerosene replied to merkhet's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I get my reports electronically. If you print out the form on the proxy and send it in is that OK or do you need to have the original. -
Remember Munger sitting on all that cash at DJCO? This is the same thing. When things get cheap PW will be sitting on a huge pile of cash with opportunities galore. Patience will be rewarded. P.S. Love the underwriting results while we're waiting.
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<<How many 50% crash's have happened in the last 100 years?>> The better question is: What percentage of the time have equity prices gone down 50% after reaching today's high valuations? Answer: 100%
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There is a new standard now: What would KO look like if 3G was running it? Maybe current management is doing great in a difficult environment. Or, maybe not. I suspect they're making too many one sided color copies. :) I appreciate it when a shareholder stands up and says "Does this management really deserve what we're paying 'em?" ..... even if his math was way off.
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<i>I trust Mr. Watsa will act in the shareholders best interests.</i> This proposal is not in the shareholders best interests. I voted no.
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Could lower oil prices spur deflation?
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Buffet believes stock market is still reasonably valued
captkerosene replied to opihiman2's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I took his answer to mean that stocks were mostly very expensive but that he wasn't willing to make a market call on it. I think he said he's only made 5 market calls in his life. Saying that stock prices are "reasonable" implies prices much closer to fair value. -
Buffet believes stock market is still reasonably valued
captkerosene replied to opihiman2's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
To me "reasonably valued" and "within a zone of reasonableness" are a little different. -
BH Energy among bidders for Oncor
captkerosene replied to rogermunibond's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
WEB paid a high price for AltaLink according to the Brookfield guys during their 2014 investor day. So maybe we'll get it. -
Berkshire Hathaway 2013 Annual Letter
captkerosene replied to Borgesian's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I think there is a note stating that pension assets are not included in the stock totals. So maybe DaVita is held in pension accounts. -
I have some concern that BRK has been successful because of WEB - not the culture or business model that WEB has implemented. If the stock price languishes, shareholders may be wishing for - not fearing - a tender offer for controlling interest. Why not pay the extra 1% to reap the potential 10 or 20% premium in the future? Note: this only applies if you are buying with the intention of holding shares for the long term.
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After WEB is gone there is nothing to stop an Icahn-type character from putting BRK in play. Sadly, many of the "Helpers" Warren has been denigrating over the years would love to rip BRK to pieces. I prefer the A's because the voting rights may be worth something some day.
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WEB is putting over 12 Billion into this deal for 50 % of the equity. That isn't using OPM or leverage.
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I don't think that WEB means that float will never grow again. I just think that he has been doing one-of deals that have inflated the current numbers. Since he was trying to lay out some guidance for valuing BRK, he wanted to let us know that float growth was artificially high.
