This2ShallPass

This would be massive for the JPS and common. But wouldn't it attract a lot of attention in congress and the narrative that rich people are being unduly rewarded at the expense of American taxpayer. Not saying right or wrong, just thinking of possible backlash. Seems like a political hot potato that the administration would not want..

That's a nice return w 45% in FI! I'm up 20.5% YTD (as of June 30). Fairfax at 30% of pf was the big driver. Eurobank did great but is only 9% weighted. Others were Fairfax India, Prosus, and TSMC (started buying in March / April and has quickly grown to 8%). These 4 are 30% of my pf. This is something I have to think about, are my non FF top positions weighted appropriately. Cash is lowest at 6% now but ranged from 6-20% during the 1st 6 months.

Yes, this is the part HIMS got right. Their CEO was asked in the last call if he'll work with insurance and he said never. By not using insurance, they've taken a ton of complexity out of the business and have a leg up on the competition. If you ask guys to pay a few hundred dollars or talk to another human about something like ED, 90% are paying the money

Thanks for the recs. CRISP was one I’d glanced at before but it felt outside my circle of competence. One of the guys who worked for me did his PhD on cancer research and had good things to say about Crispr—that’s about the extent of what I knew. Will take another look now.

@investmd Hims was part of growth basket of stocks I have (~7.5% of my pf). I look at these stocks as potential to 10x so don't need huge allocation as downside risk is high as well. Hims, my original thesis, was it can change healthcare delivery for "non-criticial" areas and if successful they would be an easy 10x. They bypassed insurance which was disruptive in the US and the logic was sound - most people don’t meet their deductible, so they’re used to paying out of pocket anyway. GLP1 news cycle turbocharged their volatility which I didn't mind. But this latest fallout w Novo was not good. It's clear Hims is trying to use a loophole to bypass drug IP and though compounding has been around, these guys are doing it at scale. I expect the pharma industry to fight hard as subverting patent protection will essentially make that industry unviable. I also agree with Novo's claims that Hims was not acting in good faith. I signed up to their service to check them out. I got a feeling they were more about profits than delivering quality healthcare. I can basically get a prescription that I want! They have been careful in choosing areas like hair growth, ED etc. where this might not be a big issue. Considering everything, I sold HIMS (at a decent profit).

What are your thoughts on HIMS vs. TDOC..both as an investor and doctor?

Really good interview w Brad Jacobs. He probably said making money for shareholders a 100-200 times, wish all CEOs were that laser focused on returns.

Yes, it's amazing how few actually follow these. Most CEOs buyback stock irrespective of price like they're braindead. Before we say a management team is great (hello JOE), we should probably look at how they allocate capital. Today, CEOs get good grades if they run their core business well (which is important but not sufficient imo).

Delayed response as I was on vacation the last couple of weeks. Discount is primary. Barry Diller is another factor and they're buying back shares while MGM buybacks will start slowing down.

It's awesome you're getting to the first 100k! The early milestones are much harder. I wouldn't worry too much over things like going to cash, you'll invariably make mistakes along the way. As long as you don't repeat them you'll do well over the long run. You can't go wrong on Fairfax and Berkshire, but my suggestion would be to at least have 5-10 stocks. It's still concentrated enough and you surely can find more good businesses. Unexpected things can happen to any business, so having only one or two is riskier imo.

Added to TSMC. Switched my MGM stock to IAC, still have MGM ITM calls.

Bessent has been consistent on this topic. If you read his latest interview to what he said few months back, he says it's a priority but they're doing lot of studies. Reading between the lines, it doesn't seem he's as enthusiastic and his bigger focus is no impact on mortgage rates.

August. I'm hoping these things playout by then one way or another..

Ok, I swore off on not doing any bear market hedging. But, old habits die hard and I caved in I read Kuppy's Q1 letter which scared me enough and couple of days back Jamie Dimon talking about the credit issue. So decided to protect myself aka light some money on fire on those premiums. ~70% of my pf is hedged against a >10% drawdown. I bought SPY and QQQ puts. For Fairfax which is 30% of my pf, I decided to buy Markel puts to cover 2/3rd of my FF position.

I added more to the Pabrai Wagons fund, mainly because I get exposure to ideas that I won't be able to buy and I feel the pf as constructed currently will do well. Liked his recent update—he trimmed exposure to coal and car dealerships, and bought VAL, NE, and TDW. I had already started building positions in these three earlier this year, so I was familiar with them. Edelweiss also looks interesting. They're currently valued around $1B, and they'll be spinning off 4 units, each potentially valued around $1B according to Pabrai. The first IPO/spinoff is coming soon, expected valuation around $900M–$1.6B, so we'll soon find out if his thesis holds up. Also, TAV Airports had 95M passengers last year and expects to hit 110M this year. Edelweiss and TAV together are about 35% of his portfolio. He also bought Reysas in the fund (5% position).

Added more to the Pabrai Wagons fund. My plan has been to allocate small amounts to other managers, with a simple rule: if they outperform me in any given year, I'll add more, but if they underperform my portfolio for 3 consecutive years, I'll cut bait. I started with Pabrai in Jan'24 and added Ackman this year. So far, both have underperformed:)—Pabrai by quite a bit. But I decided to ignore my rule and add anyway, mostly because of the reasons below. I liked his recent update—he trimmed exposure to coal and car dealerships, and bought VAL, NE, and TDW. I had already started building positions in these three earlier this year, so I was familiar with them. Edelweiss also looks interesting. They're currently valued around $1B, and they'll be spinning off 4 units, each potentially valued around $1B according to Pabrai. The first IPO/spinoff is coming soon, expected valuation around $900M–$1.6B, so we'll soon find out if his thesis holds up. Also, TAV Airports had 95M passengers last year and expects to hit 110M this year. Edelweiss and TAV together are about 35% of his portfolio.

YTD +15%. Large positions FFH, FIH, Prosus, Eurobank and my growth basket have been doing well. MGM is hopefully next. TSMC was the one medium position I built from scratch during the lows.

I was wondering the same. There were a couple 10k+ volumes so doesn't look like a mistake / erroneous trade..maybe good news on IPO next week (we can hope)??

Sold remaining of my Fannie/Freddie common. In this environment, I don't see them really looking at bringing them out of conservatorship..

This might have already been recommended..Adolescence is a must watch. That kid is one hell of an actor!

Added to Pershing Square, PDD and TSMC the last couple of weeks..

This was a really good podcast, didn't know the guy but took a chance since it was China centric and he didn't disappoint.

The level of distrust India has for China is so deep I think the best you can expect is a status quo. India is way better of continuing to build on the strength of US relations..these issues like tariffs are just a blip in the really long term. Any country that thinks China will be a better partner than US, they are asking for the trouble they will be getting into.

Built position in TSMC over past 2 weeks. Incremental buys of Fairfax India and Prosus. Doubled position in NE, still small. Small add to Eurobank. Some of my positions I also have calls. During this volatility, I was able to reduce strike price for most for an incremental 20-25% premium.

Only thing I sold was Fannie / Freddie pfds earlier in the week. It was a small position.