This2ShallPass

@nwoodman the last reliable update on Exco I saw was from Chou's annual report (http://choufunds.com/pdf/2021 AR English.pdf). He had some good things to say and his current PV-10 estimate is $1.2B! I'm also looking at Exco again. Bought originally around $1 (my lowest buy was $0.6 which was close to the 5-year low) after reading Chou's update a while back, but sold ~$5 as there were no public updates / financials and I had no good way of knowing the value. Looks like that was a mistake..

I would be disappointed with this, for the 5-yr period from 2022 it would just be a double. Fairfax seems to be in a position with almost everything going right and all the positives that has been discussed in the board. With all of this, 15% 5-yr cagr feels too low. Just curious on what should be the expectation for % BV growth over the next 4 years? If Fairfax consistently delivers BV/share improvement for the next 4 years, then it's reasonable to expect a much higher multiple (1.2-1.3x BV?)..

I have been lurking here for a long time. Thanks to all the posters and the great discussion, this is an amazing community. A shout out to Viking who regularly shares his analysis, mid-qtr equity updates etc. Fairfax is my largest holding (along with Fairfax India is ~30% of my pf). I have increased my position after the 2020 lows, but being a really long term holder Fairfax has definitely contributed to my underperformance (it's a position I was sitting tight on but maybe was not right). Currently, I share the optimism as many in the board and they seem to be doing all the right moves. Here are couple of things to add to the potential upside Digit IPO - the last post in Digit talked about 15% at Rs.5000 crore, which translates to ~$4.2B valuation. Fairfax with their 74% share would be worth $3B (24% of today's market cap!). IPO might be the catalyst for the $3B to be baked into Fairfax by most analysts / investors. Question: it has taken a long time for Fairfax ownership to get from 49% to 74%, is this just a formality or do we still have some regulatory risk here? Buying back shares - if they were serious about following Teledyne, then we should see significant buyback over the next few years. If prices remain ~$500-550, it feels like another SIB is coming post the pet insurance sale? -T2SP

This decision has to based on the relative prices, I think we're in that 10% here:) 20-30% discount to BV seems common, but when the discount is at 50+% it's better to buy the underlying. To me personally, it's a vehicle to invest in India and given the growth trajectory there I feel comfortable paying the discount (knowing very well I will not be able to get the deals Fairfax gets or have the expertise to invest in the Indian market). We know they bought back shares at $15 and will do that again, so that could be a reasonable floor. Buying today gives a minimum 35% upside (current market conditions make that return even better). ps: I have been a lurker for many years and this is my first post. I have benefited greatly from the wisdom of many posters here and thanks to everyone for generously sharing your thoughts.