This2ShallPass

Don't forget to enjoy life along the way! If you have a long investing time ahead of you, just avoiding big mistakes will guarantee sufficient wealth. My suggestion is don't sacrifice things today to have more money later in life.

Yes those pesky financing costs:) I don't know if this is even right, how do you swing from a $782M unrealized gain to $350M loss in Q1? If the $350M is just loss for Q1 ($200/sh), what happened to the the unrealized gain at end of 2025. The realized gains in Q1 was only $12M.

This makes sense but the numbers don't add up. $782M in unrealized gains in 2025 and only $57M in realized gains. In 2026 Q1, $12M in realized gains and unrealized loss of $354M. What settlement data differences would allow for the skewed unrealized vs. realized? The TRS was ~1.7M shares, 2026 Q1 share price down US$206 equates to $350M loss (matches above). For 2025, share price up US$530 and total gains should have been $900M but we only got +$839m ($782+$57M)....difference of $61M. These seem to line with glider's theory of part unrealized m2m and part realized cash settled.

Yes, it's clear TRS is an investment. I was also thinking of TRS vs. buybacks, but since they pay tax on TRS it's clear they don't view it as buyback equivalent (or they would unwound it when cash started flowing in). As long as they keep it on we can say they view Fairfax shares as materially undervalued. That said, it most certainly can create the negative feedback loop if someone with big enough pockets want to create the selling pressure. One of the few times I'm glad it's not listed in US and no options trading..

Thank you for this analysis. Fairfax has dropped 10% YTD. I decided to open a trading position today that's 30% of my core FF position. You can't telegraph earnings any better, but Fairfax stock will do what it does

It's interesting they are keeping the TRS w the tax. It made sense when they put it on since they didn't have the cash. Now should be a no brainer to close it and buyback shares. The only other thing that makes sense is they will keep the TRS and buyback shares. If that's the case, TRS closure will be a good sign we're closer to intrinsic value.

Not a bad idea, wealth management industry will be growing faster in India.

What do we need to show we are registered shareholders?

I hope you're right. Fairfax in 2015 was not as strong as they're now and FF India didn't have the crown jewel then. The fees might be our blessing in disguise:)

This is a good approach, I might start following it. Nibbling here and there is ideal for this stock which moves sideways for long stretches. I was also thinking about my exit strategy today. If there's no IPO and stock doesn't move up by at least 20% in a year, I will start reducing by position by 20% every year in January. I don't envision this happening as BIAL value continues to grow, but if it does end up being the case I need a plan. The biggest risk / worst case I see is a take under by Fairfax. If you look at Atlas or Kennedy Wilson the pattern is there and we would be foolish to ignore it. And it will happen at the worst possible time! If Fairfax India drops to $10-12 or discount continues to get larger, we will be taken out at some point for a 20% premium. Especially as cash in parent FF continues to grow. I would be really upset if BIAL is taken away from us right when it's starting to explode, but I'm mentally prepared for it. If you're a poor shmuck who decided to buy Kennedy Wilson (partly because of the trust you had in Fairfax) and decided to hold through thick and thin, your 5 and 10 year return is a 50-60% permanent loss (permanent being the keyword). Sure they gave a 40% premium from the absolute lows Same with Atlas but just worse because you were the minority shareholder who helped fund the business during the early stages.

Maybe. If they think the drop in IDBI stock price will reduce the reserve price they might be willing to wait 6-12 months.

I think the setup is getting better as BIAL markups will continue at the pace of the last 2 quarters. In terms of the stock, without an IPO it'll continue to trade at a discount or the discount could get bigger as the potential buyer pool is small(fees turnoff many investors). I have got this to a position size where I can live with it being sideways for a while. I also don't mind reducing the position a bit when I need to buy something that's more compelling in the short term (sold some last week to buy Constellation).

@gfp clearly you have done much better than most of us here. If I look at the chart, it has been pretty range bound since 2018-24. Have you been trading within the $10-15 range. If yes, what has been your markers to buy / sell (other than using our complaining to buy) and why are you holding now at higher prices.

I agree if you starve the investment management team they'll leave. But they have only made 1 investment in the last 18 months. Your second point on IV being much higher means they should be proactive in finding ways to buyback stock. Get creative (which we know they can do well) or sell some existing investments. If IV is $35-40 and your stock is selling for $15, then buying back becomes your hurdle rate with which you evaluate new and existing public investments. Irrespective, don't you guys think $150M in fees ex performance is excessive?

Surely they do. If your shares are deeply undervalued then buying them should be reasonable (basic) capital allocation. I guess if you charge fees in BV then maybe you don't care enough to close it, especially when you also get paid in discounted shares. Is investment performance determined by returns? Or how many new investments one makes over time? Not making investments is fine, but charging $150M (to a $2.2B company) for sitting on your behinds is ridiculous! I love the potential of BIAL like everyone else. But this is FF not doing right by minority investors as has so often been the case with many other investments.

Yeah not worried about it all. It's one of those things when you first spot a pattern your brain looks for it every time and this one has never failed me:)

Nothing to do with the airport news but I have long been fascinated on how western news reports India related stuff. Especially the images and headlines used. They could be reporting on the greatest thing happening but the subtext reinforced from images is India is a poor country with poor people Some day when I have time, it'll be one of my pet projects (with no real use), use large amounts of images to show the trend. I asked Gemini to create the attached image - "Can you create an image of Noida international airport (looking at the entrance from the outside) with a bunch of typical passengers standing outside". Now compare it to the headline image CNN uses in the article. This is just for fun, doesn't affect my investment rationale.

Moving your reserves to volatile precious metals is extremely risky, no? What is the objective to move away from USD? I thought long term India's currency depreciation has more to do with the difference in inflation between the two countries..

I'll do this as well. Getting 5x on pfds is much more of a surer bet. Currently I don't see any >2x.

Yes definitely, I have sized it in a way where I lose a little if commons get wiped out. I'll end up with a gain overall as I had a 5-6 bagger on my original commons. But that was only a 1% position that I bought in 2022. It was always meant as a lottery bet, but my mistake was I sold too soon.

My thought process is simpler. I have 2/3rd common and 1/3rd preferred. Preferreds are getting paid at par in most scenarios. They will cover part of my common cost if they are wiped out. Keeping position size small ~3%. Commons upside is higher. We all know Trump / team don't play by the rules and SC has given the past administrations enough leeway. All it takes is Trump to be convinced by the last person he talks to that the senior preferred should be deemed paid:) You're talking big payday. If the scenarios Ackman talks about play out even partially, then I can get in cheap and own these companies for a long time.

The events thread is not very active. Hopefully we can use this one as it's more frequented. This is my first year attending the event and looking forward to it. Couple of questions, on Tuesday which event are folks attending - Value investing conference or yyx? Fairfax shareholder dinner - does Prem and/or others in Fairfax management attend? I mainly look forward to connecting with people from this board. It would be great to have some informal small group discussions. Please respond here or DM if that's of interest.

I have long given up trying to figure out this stocks movement. The high fee structure keeps a lot of investors out. I right sized the position to 5% cost basis last year and bought more earlier this year as I had some cash inflows (to maintain the 5%). From here on out, I'll let them do all the heavy lifting. I won't trim unless something meaningfully bad happens w BIAL. IPO is now what 3-4 years running, so weird. Extending OMERS agreement to Sep'26 is a positive, my guess is they must see some light at the end or they would have just let that agreement expire.

BIAL net unrealized gains in 2025 Q1 - $3.5M Q2 - $6M Q3 - $160M Q4 - $229M $399M total gain in 2025, it's happening! Even without an IPO, BIAL value will continue to go up (significantly) in the coming years and we should see BV increase accordingly. With no IDBI, the big benefit of an IPO is they might be able to sell Anchorage and buyback FFI (which counterintuitively increases % ownership of Anchorage for Fairfax India).

Market value of IDBI being much higher than when the process started seems to be the issue, good Fairfax maintained their discipline.