matjone

Did he ever say anything about "Elementary Worldly Wisdom"? I don't know if there's anything to get people interested. It seems like they are either interested or they are not. When I got interested in value investing I was so excited I started sending stuff to other members of my family. No one said a word about any of it. PullTheTrigger may be on to something, show him the returns achieved by those investors and maybe give him some examples of what his net worth would look like if he can compound at close to those rates. Perhaps mentioning some stories of good investors you know would help as well. If you find a way that works I'd like to hear what it is.

I got curious and decided to calculate his ROI. Looks like he still underperformed some of the investors on this board.

It's true that there are few net nets now in the U.S. but I wouldn't take that to mean they'll never appear again or that you can't invest this way at certain times. Like you said there are still some in Japan. Also, not every one is a terrible business. BSHI was one I looked at recently in the U.S. I admit that's not a great business but they were holding steady if I remember right. I didn't buy it but if I had I would have made money so far.

well with you they are doing a 100% tax on gains as well as a confiscation of a small % your principal, but this sounds like it will be a straight up confiscation of a good chunk of your wealth. I was pretty surprised at what they did it in Cyprus. I consider myself pretty damn far from wealthy. I still have to worry about money, and most of the money I've made has come from long hours doing jobs no one else wants to do. But I would have been subject to this "tax" on the "wealthy". At some point this kind of stuff starts to kill your motivation to go to work I envision them to set low interest rates and high tax rates. So that if you are earning 3% interest rate and paying 40% tax, you only have 1.8% left which doesn't even give you a positive return after inflation. So they are effectively seizing 100% of your real return. I expect them to bring this tax in... immediately. Oh wait, they've exceeded my expectations! The 100% tax is already here.

I've observed that sometimes these supposed money savings aren't worth it. In the house I grew up in we had the old mercury switch thermostat and it lasted decades. It was easy to troubleshoot and when we had problems with the furnace my dad fixed it himself. When I bought a house the furnace had a circuit board and it failed, and it took a trained HVAC contractor with decades of experience several visits to fix it. I can't remember the total cost but it was a few hundred dollars. I was out of town so I had to call in neighbors and family to go over there and pour anti-freeze in the toilet and turn on the faucets to keep the pipes from freezing. Ended up paying the neighbor 50 bucks for his trouble in all of it. I would have been happier with the less efficient and more reliable old school technology.

Did the "tax" in Cyprus affect stock holdings? Or just savings and CDs and the like? How do people envision it going down in the U.S.?

I know people in their late 40's with SL debt they've been living with for close to 30 years, that they'll probably live with till they die. To lock someone into that for a decision they made when they were 18 just doesn't make any sense to me. Let these people declare bankruptcy and start over.

Bankruptcy is still a pretty harsh consequence IMO. I think we should let those that are in too deep to get out start over with a clean slate. As far as the lenders not having collateral - they loaned an amount that was out of line with their prospective income. They aren't going to be able to pay it back.

Yeah I have no idea on governent bonds. That's why I don't read the blog anymore - his stuff just isn't up my alley. I'd rather read simple writeups on straight up cheap stocks like PDRX. But I figured I might as well pass it along in case it meant something to you.

Yeah I think the whole problem is that it's hard to get it off in a bankruptcy. People do stupid things when they are young and pay for them later, but if you get in a hole that's too deep to dig out of, why not let them start over?

I've got no idea but there was a blog I used to read called stableboy selections that did a few posts on puerto rican bonds. If I remember right he was of the opinion that the gov wouldn't be able to pay.

Didn't his sleigh have some magical properties that enabled him to move super fast? Also, Bezos may know the kids preferences, but he doesn't know if they've been naughty or nice, so they'll have to keep Santa on as a consultant.

Comparing those numbers with the ones you've put up investing I don't understand why you'd mess with it. That's like 7% less than the bottom range of the returns you've said you've achieved and also less than the average return on stocks over time.

I think it's like the stock market. People see other people buying stuff and think they missed out, so they try to find something to buy. What do they care, it's not their money anyway.

Just sent you a reply via PM

Thanks, Liberty. Have you been diagnosed with asperger's? I took the facial recognition quiz and did alright. I think I can read people, but I don't naturally communicate my own. Maybe I should have been a poker player.

I've never read anything on this stuff. Why does it focus so much on hunting? 143 aspie and 62 neurotypical. Maybe this means I can be declared disabled and quit working.

When did Graham talk about cash flow? I thought he just talked about earnings. Maybe I need to re-read some stuff

Unfortunately I have a very un-Buffettesque memory and I am not sure where I saw those quotes. Google "Walter Schloss archives" I think the site was called something like that. I remember that Schloss' point was that he felt safer holding stocks than holding cash, and Buffett's point was that he'd have an easier time finding ideas if he was running a smaller portfolio. On the other hand, Schloss shut down his fund in 2001 because he couldn't find any bargains, and Buffett advises us to be fearful when others are greedy. FWIW, a lot of value guys are starting to get a little worried about valuations. I believe Chou said he's worried, Klarman said the same and returned cash to investors, Oceanstone is sitting on like 80% cash right now or something. It seems like most of the OTC stocks I look at have doubled and are above book value now. There are still bargains around but they require more ability to spot. If you can understand banking or analyze the competitive landscape of the telecom industry in Alaska then you can still find things, but if you are just looking for net nets and super low pe and that kind of thing, there is less to pick from than recent years. The other option is to go somewhere outside the states where quantitative bargains still abound, such as Japan.

This is the first time I've heard of Barbosa and I really liked him. He asks good questions and it seems like he knows when the audience is going to want more explanation. I am with you on market valuations, tombgrt. I also have a couple quotes rolling around in my head. One is from Buffett in '99 when the market was at 40x earnings and he said that if he was running a small portfolio he'd be fully invested. The other is from Walter Schloss who said he had been fully invested his entire career.

I've been saying this about a few board members. There are a lot of good investors here. What this board really needs is a salesman.

Looks like there's a fair amount of margin debt http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8 I'm skeptical whether anyone can call these things, but for whatever it's worth it seems a lot of respected value guys with good records are on the record as being worried about the level of the market.

This is the email I got back when I emailed etrade korea. Sorry the table didn't come through but it looks like for most of us we'd be paying about a half percent fee for each buy or sell transaction. Q1. About Opening Account A1. It is very complicated that foreigner not living in Korea registers “Certificate of Investment Registration” and opens account for investing Korean Stocks. And the process costs about a month (or over). The documents should also be delivered by international courier service. Thus, it is important that you are sure you have a strong passion and enough money to invest. Q2. About Fee A2. To serve you to resister “CIR” and to open account as your Standing Proxy, we requests that you pay us $100 as fee. When the process is going, you should transfer money into our company’s account. Q3. About Trading A3. For foreigner not living in Korea, we don’t offer on-line trading service.(We don't have HTS for Retail in English now.) Thus, your account is only made of off-line trading service. Because Etrade Korea, as standing proxy, guarantees your fair trading, and reports your trading records to ‘Financial Supervisory Service’ regularly. (Contract for Standing Proxy is a kind of RISK of US) Here comes ‘Fee’ Table for Trading. Position Volume Fee Buy Under 50M Won 0.48% 50M ~ 0.3B Won 0.45% Above 0.3B Won 0.38% Sell Under 50M Won 0.48%+0.3% Tax 50M ~ 0.3B Won 0.45%+0.3% Tax Above 0.3B Won 0.38%+0.3% Tax Tax (except 0.3% Trading Tax, for Gaining Interest and Dividends etc.) is following Your Asked Country. Q4. About Transferring and Trading MONEY A4. After opening account, we suggest you to transfer over 20~30 thousands in one time at least because of Efficiency and Productivity. To assist you for converting US dollar as Korean Won, I have to go to bank in Yeouido (when we open cash account in Etrade Korea, we also open bank account.) on Business Time. Then, I ask you considering my position. Based yesterday, I manage about 20 million Dollars which is my client’s money. As your money is important, my client’s money is also important. I serve you with a part of time for my honored customers. Please know about it.

I mainly use book value, probably because I'm not smart enough for anything else. For these kinds of markets I think it pays to be able to see bargains that aren't as obvious, and also to have the conviction to be able to concentrate, since there aren't as many ideas. If all you can see is the obvious bargains then you are sort of like a one pitch pitcher getting bumped up to the majors. The one area I'd really like to become competent in is turnarounds and cyclical companies. There are some ridiculous opportunities in these, especially in smaller companies, but you have to have the vision and judgment. Mexican Restaurants was a good example of this.

How about this, globalfinancepartners? If it gets down to 105k you buy it and I'll put up 5k and I get 1% of sales. :)