Ross812

First off, I'm sorry it's not working. It is working on my laptop with Excel 2003. I tried to install it using the instructions in the zip on my desktop using Excel 2010 and I can't get the darn add in to work. I'll get it fixed and let you know how I got the add in to work. Zarley, I set up the spreadsheet so every cell only pulls one data point, meaning it doesn't just insert the financial data using a csv format to import the table at once. Each cell grabbing it's own data takes a little longer (less than 10 seconds) but avoids the problem of varying table formats. The only problem I have had with SMF is data sources changing which takes a little bit of work to update, but its usually just one source.

Parsad, I'll take a look at it tonight. It was working on my computer, but I had to include a new version of the SMF plugin because I couldn't find the version I had. I'll let you know what I find.

Hi all, I saw a few members were using Google docs to keep track of positions and run some basic quantitative analysis. Here is a spreadsheet I created a while ago to help quantitatively evaluate companies. *NOTE: Be sure to install the included Stock Market Functions (SMF) Plugin before using the spreadsheet. Instructions are in the zip file. In order use the first two tabs (Main and List), you need to cut and paste a list of ticker symbols to column A on the ‘List’ Tab. Once this has been accomplished you can go to the first tab ‘Main’ and press ‘Scan List’. This will pull data and update the data in columns B-O on the ‘List’ Tab. I have used these two tabs a lot to help find companies to research more deeply. The third tab ‘Summary and Rating’ pulls the most recent rating information from various sources. The fourth tab is ‘Balance Sheet’. This imports all the most recent financial information for an entered ticker symbol. I added a few indicators to the right of the financial information: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Steve Szirom’s Red Flag Indicators, and some basic fundamental ratios all calculated from the financials. The last tab is a graphing tab which automatically graphs up to 10 years of data and 2 years of estimates for an entered ticker symbol. The graphs are: Actual vs. Estimated Earnings, P/E ratio, EPS, P/S Ratio, Revenue, P/BV, P/TBV, Gross Profit, Equity, Operating Margin, and FCF. This is pretty useful when checking for trends. I haven’t updated or enhanced the spreadsheet in a couple years. I know there are other graphs, ratios, etc that would be helpful. I am planning on getting it to run with some Morningstar premium data in the near future. All I ask is if you further develop the spreadsheet, share it with the group. Regards, -Ross Company_Evaluator-v0.5All_Working.xlsx SMF_Add-In.zip

Will the 5.5 billion redemption of preferred shares come from reserve releases or will they issue debt further out at a lower interest rate than the preferreds are paying?

I think his deal works out to better than 6% for him, based on the structure, no? No, I remember from a Reuters Buffett paid for the majority of the company and Heinz management would be replaced by 3G, a private equity firm with ties to Inbev. I don't follow Berkshire that closely because I only have a small position in the company. I read that Buffett was replacing the management from Heinz which is typically out of character for him. What rate would you expect Heinz to grow at under new management? I really like what I have read about Inbev management when I was looking into BUD awhile ago.

MSCI, ADSK, ADBE

I don't know how you compare Berkshire to Fairfax. Fairfax is an insurance company with a stock portfolio. At the helm is a smart value investor who loosely follows the Graham school of thought as it pertains to investing. Prem is currently running a hedge to preserve the value of the stock portfolio (aka book value) should deflation occur and the market tank. Berkshire is completely different. Berkshire is a diversified conglomerate which owns everything from insurance to ketchup and trains. At the helm of Berkshire is a smart value investor who does not follow the Graham school of thought but buys cash flows at a discount to their intrinsic value. Attempting to compare an 8 billion dollar insurance company to a 253 billion dollar conglomerate cannot be done. That is like trying to compare Coke to Jones Soda. The question is which company has a higher probability of compounding money at the market cap YOU purchased the company for over the next 10 years. This means assuming in 10 years you sold both companies at 1x BV and Fairfax grows at 10% Berkshire must grow BV at a rate of 13% to overcome the more expensive price paid. The expression is: (1.3*Frfhf.GR^10=Brk.GR^10) Brk.GR >= 1.0265*Frfhf.GR to consider Brk over Frfhf. What did buffet just do? Heinz Ketchup has a 6% essentially guaranteed Growth Rate. He bought HNZ at a P/E of 24. Lets say a fair P/E is 15, so he essentially bought HNZ at 24/15 or 1.6x current value (comparable to 1.6x BV). At a 6% growth rate, Heinz will get back to intrinsic 15x p/e after 8 years of growth (1.06^8=1.6). This implies that Buffet anticipates a 3.3% GR for Brk over the same time period all things being equal. (1.3*Hnz.GR^8=BRK.GR^8)

From The Q4 2012 Wedgewood Client Letter:

aegn. formerly insituform. I'm on my phone so i can't get into it to much but they are the only company today with the size and ability to repair failing water and sewage pipes on the scale that will be required in the next few decades. their technology is 5x cheaper than the next alternative. research slip lining and you will understand ;-)

I am 17.5% cash right now. If I count the leverage in BAC I am 110% long though. In the past month I sold UPS, RLI, and Power Corp. I bought UPS and RLI in September and sold them after the end of the year run up. There are still some deals to be had right now in the market. I recently added some Chesapeake preferred and Bidvest shares. Fairfax and Intel are still cheap and I've been looking into Fiat and GKK (Thanks Plan!). You can make yourself sick worrying about whatever metric you want, but even after 2008, the huge pullback in financials in 2011, and whatever comes next, I am pretty sure everyone on this board has made it through alright.

A Berkshire operation twist?!

Olympus Scandal was documented really well on this board! http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ocpnf-pk-olympus-corp/

The cash will be spent trying to monitize thai which they have been unable to do for three years. I still own some pbn but I will sell it on any sort of a pop. I remember calculating about $2-3 in heavy oil assets and $1 on cash. Value this one on the liquidation value of the oil assets, about $1...

I would recommend Yacktman funds. Donald Yacktman has a value philosophy and has been at the game for a long time. His son is equally good and I would expect the outperformance to continue over the long term.

This topic sounds a lot like this one: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-business-would-you-buy-if-price-didn't-matter-(a-thought-challenge)/msg77368/#msg77368 Just in case you wanted to look at a big thread of ideas :)

Most of my portfolio is in my signature below, roughly 30% in my first holding. 10-15 positions is plenty to keep up with and I would spend the same amount of time on 5 if I was really concentrated. I read once (maybe Klareman?, probably misquoted) that 80% of what you learn about a company comes from the first 20% of the time you spend researching it. Holding 10-15 positions keeps me interested and I can always increase a position as I learn more about it over the time I hold it. You don't need to be super concentrated to do well over time. Peter Lynch was teased that he never met a stock he didn't like. In my experience concentration cuts both ways. I think diversification across geography, currencies, industries, long/short, and asset classes is more important than owning different common stocks. I've seen that many have a pension for owning stocks with a high TBV which are usually O&G, banks, insurance, holding companies, shipping etcetera. These companies (just look at our investment ideas section) make us value investors 'feel' like we are getting a deal when we look at that TBV and its higher than what we paid. I think we need to be careful that we are not getting over concentrated in certain sectors. I know I am guilty, I have four insurance positions, three banking, and two O&G! Look at Buffett and Yacktman's portfolios. They have a nice mix of traditional high TBV industries mixed with consumer staples, healthcare, and IT.

Intouchables was a very "feel" good movie, even if I had to read the subtitles! ;-) I'll check out Ruby Sparks, thanks. I'm always looking for date night type movies. I've heard many complaints that the movies I pick up are too violent for a nice night on the sofa.

I thought 'Looper' was the best film I've seen so far. Batman was pretty good but kind of drawn out. I haven't seen Argo, or Les Miserables yet. Also if you are looking for something to watch with your significant other I thought 'Safety Not Guaranteed' was a really good light hearted film.

I choose to buy individual companies. Bidvest has operations in South Africa, Chile, Europe, and China. Look for good foreign operators who can grow they're business in rapidly expanding economies.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intercontinentalexchange-buy-nyse-8-2b-134719377.html Lets see if regulators let it happen this time.

I believe this is the same fund aggregated by mffais: http://mffais.com/stock-owner/harris-associates-investment-trust---oakmark-select.html

I'm at about 10% right now. I usually buy in steps and dollar cost average in every time it goes down 10%. I start with 2.5% -> 5% -> 10% -> 20% (I hope not with Intel, at $18.30 its going to get really nerve wrecking!)

I bought three times as much Fairfax as I wanted at $346 and then $340 becoming a first time Fairfax shareholder. I have since sold the extra 2/3 of my position because I'm not ready to leave that much money in Fairfax when Intel and Chesapeake preferred are going back on sale! My experience with FFH has been phenomenal thus far; no wonder this board is named for them ;).

Compared to 30 June 2012: BAC - Bank of America Corp. 7,502,000 7,502,000 0% C - Citigroup Inc. 1,807,510 1,807,000 ~0% GS - Goldman Sachs Group 506,130 198,863 -61% GM - General Motors 2,237,000 2,283,650 +2% CHK - Chesapeake Energy 1,005,000 2,983,817 +196% ZINC - Horsehead Holding Corp. 1,840,100 1,840,100 0%

Precious metals is a game of the greater fool. You buy a pretty piece of metal and hope someone else will give you more fiat currency for it later... Rather than buying a pretty piece of metal and hoping to convince someone later that it is even prettier and worth far more than you paid, you could own assets that are essential for day to day life. Railroads, real estate, high tech commodities, water, and land are going to be much more valuable than silver if the fiat currency unravels. If it makes you sleep better at night to have a truckload of silver bars in the basement, have at it. If the fiat currency goes up in smoke, what is silver worth? If I am the bank that owns your house I think your mortgage is now... 16 ounces of silver a month... The whole premise of precious metals is flawed. Any future money supply will have to have an electronic form. Banks are not going to send trucks of silver back and forth to pay debts. The prospect of a commodity currency is further from reality now than anytime in human history. If controlled inflation comes about in the next 10 years, silver will be worth whatever someone who thinks the inflation will continue for another 10 years is willing to pay for it. If precious metals revert to the mean, like they always have, you lose your entire investment. If the fiat currency implodes you have no idea what your silver is worth. I would expect gasoline, natural gas, and water will be far more valuable than a bar of shiny metal…