PlanMaestro

Fat pitch. Now you want to ask what role SHOS plays with SHLD at large.

The Global Car, or when an Audi A4 will be just a Passat with nice accessories. The sense from competitors and auto analysts is that VW's rollout of MQB is likely to be as influential as such earlier innovations as Ford's adaptation of standardized parts, GM's "ladder" of brands and Toyota's streamlined production system. Insight: Has Volkswagen discovered the Holy Grail of carmakers? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/11/us-autos-volkswagen-future-idUSBRE91A04D20130211?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=56943 After a six-year gestation, VW has just begun to implement its sophisticated and highly flexible platform with the deceptively simple label MQB, a German acronym for "modular transverse matrix." Virtually all of the group's small and medium front-wheel-drive family models, including the latest generations of the VW Golf and Audi A3, are being designed around MQB as their base. The new platform features a far greater degree of plug-and-play modularity, flexibility and parts commonality than at Toyota, General Motors Co, Ford and other competitors. MQB "could be the single most important automotive initiative of the past 25 years," says Michael Robinet, managing director of IHS Consulting in Northville, Michigan. "It really changes the game."

Banking: Wilmers (MTB), then Dimon (JPM).

Not sure about that one considering Solar's equivalent of Moore's law. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8246/8461238107_ed2bda7f10.jpg[/url]

Auto execs turn away from EV, focus r&d on downsizing, hybrids. http://www.autonews.com/article/20130208/ANE/302089999#ixzz2KHnvsKYL Nissan has Europe’s top-selling electric car, the Leaf, but the volume in 2012 was just 5,341 units, according to the company. As late as June last year, Nissan executives told Automotive News Europe they aimed to sell 9,000 units of the EV compact in 2012. As of October last year, just 15,272 electric cars were sold in the EU, according to data from the European Association for Battery, Hybrid & Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (Avere). Despite thousands of euros in government incentives, electric cars are still much more expensive than comparably sized gasoline- or diesel-powered cars. In the UK, which Avere ranks as the fourth-largest market for electric cars in Europe, the Leaf costs 23,490 pounds (27,960 euros) after a 5,000-pound government-funded discount. By comparison, a similar-sized Nissan Qashqai starts at 16,595 pounds. Some automakers are cutting or scaling back EV model programs. Opel said last year it had axed the electric version of its Adam minicar, citing high costs. At the other end of the price scale, Audi has pulled back from offering customers an all-electric, E-tron version of its R8 supercar. “Ten vehicles have been assembled, and these are primarily intended for internal purposes,” a spokesman said. The company had promised production versions for sale at the end of last year. The first E-tron Audi will now be a plug-in hybrid version of its A3 compact, due 2014. Another hindrance to the uptake of EVs is the lack of recharging facilities across Europe. “It will be nearly impossible to persuade consumers of the merits of the actual e-vehicles if there is nowhere to plug them in,” Ivan Hodac, secretary general of European auto industry group ACEA, said in a statement last month. Carmakers argue that if you have the right infrastructure and the right incentives, demand for electric cars will take off. One country that has proved this is Norway. According to Avere, Norway has Europe’s second-largest EV market after France. Nissan’s figures show that the Scandinavian country accounted for more than half of all Leaf sales in Europe last year.

Evoq Puts Seven South Park Parcels on the Market http://www.ladowntownnews.com/news/evoq-puts-seven-south-park-parcels-on-the-market/article_2dbe3464-708b-11e2-b72f-0019bb2963f4.html

No, no, no, I didn't want to start another religious thread :P. It was just a reference for the quote … a good quote from a good list of values (religious or not) from the new book of Alain de Botton (that I have not read). What was the point? Just a reminder that you don't want to end like Sewell Avery waiting for the next depression and completely sure that the New Deal was the worst thing ever … while Sears Roebuck passes you by. https://twitter.com/PlanMaestro/status/296822619347488768/photo/1 Macro threads are distracting enough! PS: this is the book. http://www.amazon.com/Religion-Atheists-Non-believers-Guide-Vintage/dp/0307476820/ref=tmm_pap_title_0

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8492/8448191415_ceb863dc5a.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8469/8448190957_549c28b069.jpg

Pessimism isn’t necessarily deep, nor optimism shallow. 10 virtues for the modern age. http://www.theschooloflife.com/assets/Uploads/Ten-Virtues-For-The-Modern-Age.pdf

Highly recommended. (Capital ratios, Volcker, Libor, RWA, …) Bill Winters, former co-CEO of Investment Banking, at the UK Banking Commission. http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=12518&wfs=true

Light Commercial market in Europe. http://europe.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130205/ANE/302059999/psa-fiat-opel-others-at-risk-from-shake-up-of-lcv-sector#axzz2JxdnLBv8 Europe's light commercial vehicle sector is headed toward a major shake-up that is likely to put added financial pressure on struggling brands such as Peugeot, Citroen, Renault, Opel and Fiat. Longtime partners are considering new alliances while Asian competitors are getting ready to take a larger piece of the market, which had a double-digit sales decline last year. There is a lot at stake because the LCV sector has proved to be a gold mine. The profit margin on a van is estimated to be as high as 9 percent, which is comparable to a premium vehicle. … European brands and Ford also have had limited competition in the LCV sector from Asian rivals. Hyundai and Toyota, however, plan to put more emphasis on the market, which includes car derived vans, panel vans and pickups with a total gross weight of less than 3.5 metric tons. Last year, the European sales decline for light commercial vehicles (13 percent to 1.44 million) was worse than that for passenger cars (8 percent to 12.6 million). Put another way, 2012 European LCV sales were 36 percent below a peak of 2.23 million in 2007 while passenger car sales were down 22 percent last year compared with a 16-million peak, also in 2007. … PSA and Fiat cooperate on large vans. Their 35-year-old joint venture in Italy, which is called Sevel Sud, is set to continue operating until 2019. Fiat, however, last year pulled out of its other van joint venture with PSA, which is called Sevel Nord and based in France. Fiat withdrew because it started importing U.S.-made large minivans from Chrysler. To fill the gap left by Fiat, PSA will supply vans to Toyota from Sevel Nord. For years, Opel/Vauxhall has gotten large vans from Renault and medium-sized vans from Fiat, but these deals expire in mid-decade, leaving PSA as a likely replacement partner for the work.Renault is already working together with Daimler. The French automaker began supplying a rebadge of its Kangoo to Mercedes-Benz, which sells it as the Citan. Press reports suggest that VW plans to stop purchasing the Crafter large van from Daimler by 2016. This would provide another opportunity for Renault and Daimler to work together. "There are certainly opportunities out there for a large shift in the alliances within the LCV sector, especially with the gradual reduction of the Sevel ventures. Key amongst this is the potential to expand the PSA and GM alliance into the LCV sector," said Michael Gartside, senior manager in charge of the Autofacts research team at PricewaterhouseCoopers. … Even after the Asians build up their LCV presence in Europe, it will be difficult to gain ground against the current leaders. PSA, Renault-Nissan, VW Group, Ford, Fiat and Daimler control 85 percent of the market today. National brands such as VW, Fiat, Peugeot and Renault also are very strong in their home markets. For example, the domestic players dominate in France, which is Europe's largest LCV market (see box, below). Two out of every three LCVs sold in the country are made by either Peugeot, Citroen or Renault. Fiat controls more than half of the Italian LCV market while Ford is the largest player in the Great Britain. VW Group and Daimler are the leaders in Germany, which ranks third overall in European LCV sales. EUROPE'S TOP LCV MARKETS A dip in French van demand added to Renault's and PSA's troubles last year (2012 sales and % change from 2011) 1. France 384,045 -11 2. Great Britain 239,641 -8 3. Germany 215,909 -6 4. Italy 106,152 -34 5. Spain 76,999 -26 Other markets 303,209 -13 Total 1,437,192 -13 Source: JATO Dynamics

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-hartford-reports-fourth-quarter-2012-financial-results-announces-2013-outlook-and-capital-management-plan-2013-02-04 The company also announced that it has reviewed with the Connecticut Insurance Department its capital management plans and that it has received approval from the Department for a $1.2 billion extraordinary dividend from its Connecticut domiciled life insurance companies. In addition, it expects to dissolve the company's Vermont life reinsurance captive and return approximately $300 million of surplus to the holding company. These actions are expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2013. The company also announced that it expects to reduce debt by approximately $1 billion, including the repayment of the 2013 and 2014 debt maturities totaling $520 million. In addition, The Hartford's Board of Directors has authorized a $500 million share repurchase program, expiring at Dec. 31, 2014. 2012 2011 Book value per diluted share $46.59 $44.31 Book value per diluted share (ex. AOCI) $40.79 $41.73

Hey guys, in case you only read it, you may want to go back to the video for these priceless moments: (1) Berkowitz cheeky smile when explaining how investors leaving increased the BAC position to 10% despite the 5% mutual fund restriction.. (2) Interviewer rolling his eyes saying that of course there was no another AIG (and cheeky smile again) ... while trying to push him on other possible great ideas. (3) The forced laugh when it was pointed out to him that there was not much more SHLD that he could own.

Some are factoring it and they are ways around it … if it happens. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/zions-bancorp/msg102061/#msg102061 http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/zions-bancorp/msg101681/#msg101681

Before we start with the conspiracy theories. GDP (Capital, Labor, Productivity) http://mruniversity.com/courses/development-economics/solow-model-brief-no-math Potential GDP gap http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_GDP What I'm going to say here is completely non-ideological. So much so that it was used by John Taylor, economic advisor to Romney, to attack Obama. Here is his interview with Russ Roberts (austrian) for the Hoover Institution (right wing and what a name) in October. So when you say that GDP it's the same than 2007 (that I have not checked) it means that 6 years of labor, capital, and productivity growth have passed and it means that current GDP is 6 years behind potential GDP. Let's say that the potential GDP for Spain increases 3% per year. GDP gap against potential GDP: (1+3%)^6-1 =20% That means that Spain can produce/earn/consume a 20% higher GDP without accelerating inflationary pressures. Instead what Spain is facing is excess capacity (ie: in Italy, facing similar issues, Fiat is operating at 40% capacity) and excess labor (your 25% for Spain) and that means … deflationary pressures. That is a 20% of REAL opportunities wasted PER YEAR and INCREASING. That production/ consumption/ income was LOST FOREVER. And it has nothing to do with inflation. Why markets are not clearing? Well, that's where the ideological discussion takes place. And it's a very long discussion that tends to get biased and stupid so let's leave it at that.

EVOQ Properties Announces Sale of Three Properties in Los Angeles. http://www.fool.com/investing/businesswire/2013/01/30/evoq-properties-announces-sale-of-three-properties.aspx

Boeing article with a deceptive title. But it gives good context on Mulally. How Boeing’s Dreamliner Was Grounded http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2013/01/28/how-boeing-s-dreamliner-was-grounded.html How Boeing prepared Alan Mulally for Ford http://www.autonews.com/article/20130130/BLOG06/130139981/how-boeing-prepared-alan-mulally-for-ford#axzz2JTs9yZX7

Max, thanks for the links. I see you made no comments on Baupost's performance. Why not?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-q4-profit-beats-street-120528336.html Ford Motor Co forecast a $2 billion loss in Europe this year, hurt by a punishing recession that could drive down industry sales in the region beyond 2012's nearly 20-year low. Ford said on Tuesday its sales outlook was deteriorating in Europe and the 2013 loss would be worse than the $1.75 billion deficit in 2012. The automaker is closing plants and slashing costs.

Bank of America. ;)

Larry Summers. I guess he's not running for anything … and that deserved better questions. http://new.livestream.com/accounts/1909571/events/1790721 Regarding macro musings, and specifically the UK vs Japan macro test: I try to apply a discipline to myself … what you could you see in the next several years that would lead you to think that you were importantly wrong and would cause you to think you should change your mind.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323375204578268083108322300.html Companies that sell power tools, air conditioners, carpet fibers, furniture and cement mixers are reporting stronger sales for the fourth quarter, providing further evidence that a turnaround in the housing market is taking hold. The results add to data on home construction and pricing that indicate a bottom may have been reached after the sector's long slide. While the incoming data continue to be mixed, evidence that Americans are spending more to build and refurbish homes is raising executives' confidence that the housing market will continue to improve and help fuel the broader economy.

Bakken formation flaring seen from space. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8084/8423039746_9943648872.jpg

Dalio. Part I : http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000142389 Part II : http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000143315

Home-Equity Loans Heat Up http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578262020944266466.html?mod=googlenews_wsj After years of declines, home-equity lending is starting to make a comeback. That is presenting new opportunities for homeowners seeking to finance a major purchase, consolidate debt or refinance a mortgage with a small balance. J.P. Morgan Chase originated $373 million in home-equity lines of credit in the fourth quarter, up 35% from the same period a year earlier. At Buffalo-based M&T Bank Corp. the dollar volume of home-equity originations increased 27% last year, while TD Bank, a unit of Canada's Toronto-Dominion Bank, saw a 27% increase in the number of home-equity originations. McGraw-Hill Federal Credit Union, which serves employees of about 120 companies in the New York area, says its home-equity balances were up 53% in 2012. Overall, the number of home-equity loans originated increased by 19% in the fourth quarter versus the same period a year earlier, according to Equifax's National Credit Trends Report, while home-equity-line-of-credit originations jumped by 13%. […] One big driver of home-equity lending is the improving housing market, which gives borrowers more equity to tap and lenders more confidence their loans will be repaid. "Home prices are starting to stabilize and even increase," says Caleb Cook, vice president for lending at Seattle Metropolitan Credit Union, which has seen a pickup in home-equity loan demand. "It's restoring some of the equity people lost." Another piece of good news for borrowers: interest rates are at or near historical lows. Rates on home-equity loans averaged 6.32% in December, the most recent data available, according to mortgage tracker HSH.com, down from an average of 8% in January 2010. Rates for home-equity lines averaged 5.17% versus an average of 5.54% two years ago. […] Home-equity lending was hot during the housing boom, but lenders pulled back sharply as home prices tumbled. Despite the recent uptick, the total amount of home-equity loans and lines outstanding is 35% below its 2007 peak, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.