jjsto

http://www.businessinsider.com/niall-ferguson-paul-krugman-was-right-2012-1#ixzz1l0LZM8l5

If the US, UK, and EU all experienced a Japan-like lost decade at the same time, I have no idea what would happen to the price of gold.

http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue58/Koo58.pdf

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eichengreen37/English

I have no idea how recommended his book is by other people, but I think it is better than 90% of the stuff out there on value investing. I would put it on par with Value Investing by Bruce Greenwald, but below Intelligent Investor and Margin of Safety. Specifically, he does mini-case studies of Sears, GEICO, and Gen RE. In certain instances, he will walk through the balance sheet/income statement line-by-line showing what items he would adjust and why. He also shows how to apply basic margin of safety concepts to pricing catastrophe insurance without using a lot of math. Overall, I would definitely recommend reading it.

Good interview. Only 17 mins long: http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11984

The only thing he seems to be doing "buffett-like" is running around quoting buffett, and using value oriented vocabulary/phrases in his writing. Nothing about what he is actually doing seems "buffett-like" at all.

Richard Koo repeats this over and over in his book. And I think the commercial real estate in Japan fell by as much as 85%. Isnt there a saying about how using some valuations, the land under the imperial palace in tokyo was worth more than all the real estate in california? "Some people look at Japan and say the government spent huge sums on public projects and there was no real growth, so spending didn't really cure the economy. Koo: The early '90s recession in Japan was far worse than people realize. Commercial real estate prices nationwide in Japan fell 87% from the peak. Imagine U.S. housing prices down 87%. The fact that the Japanese government halted what could have been an enormous drop in GDP in the early '90s speaks to the success of its economic policies." http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/27/news/international/US_Japan_recession.moneymag/index.htm

The transcripts are good too: http://www.confidencegame.net/read-transcripts-from-investigation.html

Yeah, thanks a lot moore. Very informative.

Yeah, I did assume you were talking about large corporations. I do agree the US has a better system for the small/entrepreneurial companies. And, according to Mauldin, that is where a lot of job creation comes from. I was thinking about the bankruptcy process only in terms of households. It is easier in the US for corporate bankruptcy, but it is also a different starting point since most Japanese companies were more heavily levered at the beginning of the crisis and had a lot more inter-company share holdings. US corporations are already in far better financial shape than their japanese counterparts at the same t+3yr into the collapse. I agree that the Japanese "lost decade" was in some ways a victory if you just look at unemployment figures and probably also household net worth. However, it has yet to be seen if Japan will be able to find a non-painful way out of their debt....Nevertheless, had the US experienced the same severity of crisis that Japan experienced I dont think the US would have done as well as the Japanese did...

I tend to believe the most significant difference between the US and Japan (as it relates to our ability to get out of a balance sheet recession) is demographics. Our immigration policy/higher birth rate allows us to create households faster which should help reduce inventory and stabilize the housing price collapse at some point. This, in turn, should both alleviate individual's balance sheets, and help bring back employment in construction. Since it is, for the most part, the US consumer (and not US corporations) that have impaired balance sheets, at least there is some light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is a long tunnel...I am skeptical that US business are "inherently" more "adaptable" (than japanese counterparts) or that our "sophisticated" bankruptcy system will significantly aid the recovery process. At the same time, my portfolio isnt hedged at all and looks nothing like FFH's. I likewise have a very concentrated portfolio and don't mind running with unrealized losses when I believe the intrinsic value is unchanged. I dont even calculate YTD returns (possibly because it is probably not too pretty this year.) I do have about 10% in FFH right now, because I like how they are positioned for a double-dip and/or lost decade...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/koo-says-sandp-missing-the-point-on-us-fiscal-policy/2011/08/08/gIQABqgs1I_video.html

and here's rogoff with krugman: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec11/economy2_08-08.html

1) I am starting to think warren buffett is placing more emphasis on the data collected from his companies as a general economic leading indicator. The problem is, almost by definition, his companies should be outperforming the "average" company during downturns. I am pretty sure he was talking about 7% unemployment approaching the elections in 2012. And, that almost seems like wishful thinking at this point. But, what do I know? 2) Regardless, I havent been this excited about a market opening in a while. I rarely even care about the market opening. But, today I've got my coffee, a couple of croissants, and I am sitting here staring at my spreadsheet trying to figure out which of the juicy bargains I will be buying. Like a kid waiting for christmas morning....

Yeah, if it wasnt for people who "think" that way, it would be a lot more difficult to find bargains. Then, I would be forced to go back to my real job of selling t-shirts in a deli...

I hadnt looked at your blog in a while and I randomly came across the list earlier today while sorting my bookmarks. It convinced me to buy the Roubini book (which I had been on the fence about) and the Physics for Future Presidents books. I just started the Physics book, and so far so good...Where did you get this list from?

For the last week or so I feel like this has been a slow-motion crisis accompanied by a slow motion market decline. Ironically, I kind of like the fact that my "networth" has been going down lately, since stuff is getting cheaper. Should be only a few more days of "uncertainty." I like the probability breakdown in this post: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/07/28/637266/buiter-on-the-1-chance-the-us-gets-it-right/ And I like the AAA chart in this post. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/07/15/623881/the-aaa-bubble/

"How is Cut, Cap, and Balance such a radical idea?? " In my opinion, cut cap and balance is a radical idea because 1) maintaining spending at 18% of "last year's" GDP is simply not possible, and 2) the way the balance budget amendment was written does not take into account recessions. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-futility-of-cut-cap-and-balance-in-one-graphic/2011/07/11/gIQAgWHuLI_blog.html?wprss=ezra-klein http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-futility-of-cut-cap-and-balance-contd/2011/07/11/gIQAej3PQI_blog.html http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/2194/dopiest-constitutional-amendment-all-time "Or for that matter, Paul Ryan's budget plan?" Paul Ryan's plan is radical because it would essentially replace medicare with vouchers worth significantly less than the cost of care, and some of the assumptions underlying it are not realistic: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/paul-ryans-multiple-unicorns/ Neither of those plans raise revenue in any significant way. What is radical in my opinion is to oppose all forms of tax increases at a time when revenue as a percentage of GDP is 14.9%, the lowest point in at least 40 years.

And here is another take on the same interview: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/07/20/the-smart-and-charming-larry-summers/

Thanks for posting that. Good stuff. Summers if nothing else, is a very smart individual. I wish the last question had asked what he would have done differently in the Clinton administration given what he has learned since then...

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11777

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/07/14/the-damage-already-done-by-the-debt-ceiling-debate/

Not sure if this has been posted cause I didnt want to go back and read all the posts about TRE, but I like this guys take on Paulson's position: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/paulson-sino-forest-loss.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+BronteCapital+%28Bronte+Capital%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

You guys have a link?