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alpha231616967560

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Everything posted by alpha231616967560

  1. The Fed chief is nominated by the sitting president - in this case, Bernanke's term ends in Jan 2014. He was actually initially nominated by GW Bush, and Obama re-nominated him. Alan Greenspan actually served for 18 years prior to Bernanke, but the punditry speculates that Bernanke would be replaced with a R/R administration.
  2. Ryan is an avowed Ayn Rand disciple, and by that measure I guess so was Greenspan, so who knows what could happen, but the economist that they interview (Nicholas Wapshott) describes an interesting "Hayekian" alternative to Keynesian econometrics in which each state is basically its own little participant in the free economy. Something like Milton Friedman meets Ayn Rand. Obviously it wouldn't be this drastic, but I wonder what Mitt Romney has in mind when he repeatedly refers to the market response to the various QEs as a "sugar high". Nobody really knows what a new administration would bring, but it's a fair bet that a Romney / Ryan administration would want to make some sort of a statement with a new fed chief with all the chatter about the need for economic austerity in the Republican camp.
  3. This podcast offers an interesting perspective on the alternative to QE3. After all, Bernanke and the Fed are really just conforming to our culture's Keynesian roots with so-called QE, so it is thought-provoking to consider a Hayekian alternative: http://m.npr.org/story/160195703?url=/blogs/money/2012/08/28/160195703/episode-398-obama-ryan-and-two-dead-economists If Romney / Ryan were to be elected, it would likely be a whole different ball game.
  4. Good points all. I read daily, usually for several hours, and while it certainly informs my investing habits, I view it as the lesser of the dual competencies of being well informed and having a suitable temperament for investing. Having a suitable temperament is more of an emotional strength than an intellectual one. Even though both are necessary, I view the latter as being Buffett's greater triumph.
  5. The shrinking business is their PC business -- so you must be talking about the PC business. These past few years since Michael Dell came back... have they been spending the money on: a) their PC business b) growing a new non-PC business model c) returning cash to shareholders d) b and c My answer is "d". Do you disagree with my answer? My worry is how quickly their [commodity] pc business (80% of revenue) is declining and how slowly the new non-PC business model is growing. Services have comprised ~1% more of their revenue for each of the last three years. So I think that they are headed in the right direction, but I have little confidence that the battleship will turn quickly enough, and in the meantime SG & A is increasing (something like $1.2B increase last year) to accommodate the new strategy. How do you get comfortable with the numbers?
  6. Looks interesting, but I am not seeing any moat without some significant growth in their data center business. For me, this is a classic "I can't see where the business will be in 10 years" sort of situation. Appears cheap, but is it a value trap? Hard (for me, anyhow) to tell...
  7. Banks like Sallie Mae and Everbank usually have MMA rates that are competitive with the market (and much better than what you get from Wells Fargo or other national banks). Sallie Mae is at .9% presently and Cit is at 1.1%. For me, the headaches of minimum transactions, maximum deposit, etc. etc. for the local banks (not to mention Kraven's concerns above) and the yearly deposit limit ($10k) and requirement for 1 yr deposit for i-bonds - makes Sallie Mae (or equivalent) attractive for this type of thing. The yield isn't amazing, but then a rainy day fund (which is what I use cash for) is supposed to be convenient to get to, and as a 2nd priority, have a decent yield for the more likely event that it is going to sit in the account for a long while... Anyhow, here is a list of similar deals, but national and with (usually) no maximum or other requirements: http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/savings/savings-results.aspx?local=false&IRA=false&tab=MMA&prods=33&ic_id=CR_SearchCDMMAByLocation_default_CD_V1
  8. This is a good example of Google being where the puck is going and Verizon being where the puck is (or used to be). Movies / video, HDTV, Skype, certain telephony applications, cloud storage, etc. all are painful to use at 150 Mbps...a whole lot of buffering going on. Everything works better at higher speeds, and Google is offering this at a price that is hard to argue with. They're offering 3x Comcast speeds at a lower price than Comcast. It is a no-lose proposition for consumers.
  9. I don't think that the two are really comparable. Verizon FiOS is 150 Mbps (300 Mbps max for the "premium" service) for $100/ mo. Google Fiber's initial roll-out is 1 Gbps for $70/ mo. As with many of their products, Google has a very good value proposition for consumers with this offering.
  10. The first thing that I thought when I read about this the other day is that Google wants to take control of their own destiny regarding net neutrality. Right now there are only a handful of choices for fiber, and if the house bill had passed in 2010 (in some form or another), Google would have been in a very uncomfortable position (to say the least).
  11. Wordpress.com (as opposed to .org) is the sponsored platform that Wordpress hosts for you, and you can download Wordpress for a domain that you pay to host from http://wordpress.org/download/ - there are many free themes out there: http://wordpress.org/extend/themes/ In my opinion (which is fairly well informed since I've been developing websites for more than ten years now), it is the best blogging platform around. It is by far the platform that we use most for new projects these days. Keeps getting better. 16% of the web now uses Wordpress. Cheers, Paul
  12. They've refinanced my loan twice (at their expense). Didn't cost me a dime and it was all through the mail. Struck me as a bit odd, but I couldn't see any reason to say no. Is what you were offered specifically HARP, or maybe just a customer retention strategy in the faces of dropping mortgage rates?
  13. For those in the US, Valueline and Morningstar are also available for free through the library system.
  14. Freakonomics podcast on this topic: http://www.freakonomics.com/2010/12/16/freakonomics-radio-do-more-expensive-wines-taste-better/ There is a good reason that coca cola is one of the most valuable brands in the world: it pays to differentiate one sugary carbonated beverage from another almost identical one...
  15. I can't claim to imagine clearly what the total liabilities could be, but when you consider that LIBOR is the most widely used reference rate for short term loans, and that there is about $1T in student loans alone out there, even one fudged basis point is going to have a significant impact and invite class action suits. The possibilities are...well, hard to fathom.
  16. I think that the author is understating the potential here. If JPM (or any of the other banks such as C) is proven to have manipulated LIBOR, it will likely mean at least some significant legal expenses for them. Proving civil liability is another beast altogether, but as a shareholder, I certainly don't feel comfortable with the wave of the hand treatment that this author seems to give this matter.
  17. Roth 401K is not taxed later either (provided that it is withdrawn after age 65). Contribution limit is $16,500/ yr., so that can add up to a big tax advantage over a few decades.
  18. I believe that the 75% investment must be referring to Geico.
  19. When I refinanced, I went with a 30 year fixed at 4.25%, but I add about 20% to the payment every month to reduce the principal. This gives the flexibility of a 30 year but the option to pay off early if it works out. I also pay 2x month instead of once / month, which in itself reduces the length of the loan by just under a year.
  20. I have admired this company and its CEO for a long time. I wonder if it will ever get below a p/e ratio of 100 again!
  21. This is true with most financial issues though. Berkowitz has been thrown to the pigs by many because he has the stones to invest in what is truly hated and feared in the markets. Since he is so heavily concentrated in financials (his professed circle of competence), this is bound to happen in such a volatile market. This is why the very long term is the great equalizer in measuring investment returns. I'd not be surprised to see him back on top with the punditry in another year or two. This is to take nothing away from Chou. Their investment styles are very different...
  22. "I personally haven't figured out why one revolution around the sun is the appropriate time period...[to measure equity performance results]" Classic.
  23. Yes - it retains the same number regardless of where you're calling from. But talking on the computer is not so fun (at least for me) after a while. I like to walk around and do things while I'm on the phone, so having a cordless with Google Voice is a great combination.
  24. I use Google Voice, but it is hooked up to my normal cordless headset when I am at home. It just requires this adapter: http://www.amazon.com/OBi110-Service-Bridge-Telephone-Adapter/dp/B0045RMEPI - it works amazingly well (business quality) and Google Voice is free, so it's hard to beat. Also if I am on the road, I can still call / receive calls from the same line by using my headphones and laptop.
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