gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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Well that was fun!
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The IFRS discussion completely ignores the mismatch between the company's short duration bond portfolio and the liabilities at the time the new rules were adopted. This was the reason FFH had an outsized impact vs. other Canadian insurers at the time. This was required and audited - its not like they are pulling shit out of thin air.
The Digit stuff pretty weak. FFH only wrote up the preferred shares on the Sequoia deal. The 49% equity is equity-accounted (only P & L) and held on the books for $130m. I don't have a clue if an eventual IPO will be a "down round" less than $3.5 Billion. Digit combined ratios and profitability/losses are fully disclosed in FFH's filings. There is a mismatch between FFH's calendar year reports and Digit's fiscal year reports apparently.
The muddy waters report seems to conflate "fair value" and carrying value on Digit in a few places. Fairfax sometimes mentions "fair value," $2.278 Billion at 12/31/2022 - but that isn't what Digit is on FFH's books for.
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18 minutes ago, glider3834 said:
in the interview Jamie L mentions a book he gave to Prem W on Teledyne - A Distant Force - ~$521 at Amazon - too expensive for me but I would like to read it
https://www.amazon.com.au/Distant-Force-Teledyne-Corporation-Created/dp/097913630X
Oh wow, I had no idea that book had gone all "margin of safety" - maybe I should list my copy. It used to be quite easy to buy. I'm sure a bunch of libraries still have it.
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8 minutes ago, dealraker said:
Interesting...my always underperforming Willis stock is going up. Gotta find out why!
That would be earnings Charlie!
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26 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
when your cities, schools, hospitals, parks are overrun, overburdened and crime filled - the country has turned it's back on her Citizens.
It must be very different in American cities other than the one I live in. I don't see parks full of immigrants or immigrants committing crimes at rates even close to the rates of poor native-born Americans. I see homeless people that are almost 100% native born Americans, a mix of older military vetrans and mentally ill and young people that made bad choices or had awful luck or both. The folks living on the park bench and in tent cities where I am are not recent immigrants, they are native born Americans. The immigrants are at work making $200 per day, remitting $100 of it back to family and showing up at 7am the next morning to do it again.
Armed robberies, auto theft, shootings, homicides - all committed by native born poor people in my city.
It's like parallel realities. I see immigrants afraid they will be robbed by poor violent locals and you guys are acting like these are cartel members coming across with their children by the thousands. Cartel members can come into the united states whenever they want. Closing the border will not restrict the movement of cartel members. Crossing borders is literally their specialty.
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1 hour ago, mattee2264 said:
American Dream was that you could come to America, work hard, and have a better life. And the country was vast and underpopulated and industrializing so lots of opportunities.
Now the only industry making any money is technology and they are laying off staff left right and centre and trying to replace with their own AI technologies.
And most of the new jobs being created are in government as they've embraced deficit spending and are very motivated to keep unemployment low to get Biden re-elected. And most jobs these days are part-time.
You can understand the motivation to create a welfare state with a huge population of people dependent on government benefits who will vote for governments who keep the benefits flowing to them. But hardly good for the long run future of America.
Apologies in advance for continuing this thread another day. I do think the "American Dream" is still alive and well for the $20-$30 per hour cash construction worker, painter, etc... There is plenty of full time work available at those wages as a minimum and they often work on Saturday and Sunday as well (not as often on Sundays, there are still church services, quinceaneras and futbol games after all). $25 an hour full time for 6 days a week is $1200 per week for what many mistakenly term "unskilled." (This is a nit pick of mine because I'm tired of carpenters being described as unskilled labor by useless idiots - "okay philosophy professor, build me a staircase"). If the husband earns $1200/week and the wife cleans houses & paints on the side it is change-your-life and your family back home's life type of money.
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21 minutes ago, Santayana said:
It's amazing we can all have such different experiences re: inflation. At least where I am, there is absolutely no sign of it slowing down, whether talking about personal expenditures or things I purchase for my business.
Interesting. So what specifically is up in price? And is this recent price increases or just "it never went back to pre-covid" type stuff? Because inflation in the United States in the last 6 months is at or below the target. They don't want it to be zero.
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15 minutes ago, Sweet said:
What’s this got to do with the top though?
It's my fault. I was foolish enough to point out that in-migration is a positive for the national economy when we were discussing inflation. Didn't think it was up for debate. Think again!
THESE IMMIGRANTS ARE DIFFERENT! WE ONLY WANT THE GOOD ONES!
Back to fretting about a wage spiral I guess
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Homeservices would really like the Supreme Court to help with their little issue -
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3 minutes ago, Dinar said:
What is exactly the property tax that the illegal is paying and what is the cost of the kids attending public school?
The exact same mechanism for every single native born renter in the country. Jesus man.
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Wow, yeah that is a horrible answer.
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The thing about economies is that more is more and less is less. If you have a larger economy with more people producing, consuming, creating, moving, eating, sheltering, and, yes, even convalescing, you have more.
Decisions to hand out money or services or bus immigrants to a high cost city they would not have gone to themselves based on market forces are completely separate policy decisions. They can be stupid or wrong and probably are. They are separate decisions.
An illegal Honduran immigrant just knocked on my door because they needed a key to my neighbors house. They have children attending public school for free. They also pay rent that directly funds the property taxes that fund the school their kids go to. Some of their pay goes back to Honduras as remittances and leaves our country (bad for us). They also pay sales tax on the rest of their income because 100% of what is not remitted to Honduras is spent in the local economy. So they are directly funding city government through property taxes and sales tax. They receive no free money or services, they are here illegally. No hand-outs unless you think the fire department and school that they are funding are hand-outs. I would prefer if they also paid income tax but that is a policy I do not control.
One of the best "features" of immigrants is that they will move around in response to market forces to meet the needs of the economy much more than native born workers. They are not going to sit in the rust belt doing nothing waiting for some long-gone economic paradigm to return because that is what and where they used to do it.
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1 minute ago, Dinar said:
You clearly have not been to immigrant neighborhoods. When 70 year olds come over, and immediately get Medicaid, subsidized housing, food stamps, supplemental security income and home attendants, that's a drain on the economy. (And yes, I personally know a few examples.) Work for everyone? When unskilled wages are less than government benefits, why would people work? Fifteen years ago Economist magazine published a study that stated that a woman with two kids in NYC would need to make over $100K per annum before she was better of financially working than being on the dole in NYC. Today, the figure would be over $200K. How many single mothers with kids can make over $200K?
Right. So everything you are saying is causing a problem is about policy and the social safety net, giving free stuff and services to immigrants and locals. Not what I am talking about, which is immigration being positive for the economy. I'm not debating you on the policies above, those sound problematic. Immigration isn't the issue - those policies are.
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4 minutes ago, Dinar said:
Actually, that is not true. It is if you import Phds in STEM and doctors & nurses. Not true if you import people without a high school education and no skills. Also, immigration drastically reduces wages for workers in the US and leads to social problems as people cannot find work or welfare pays more. Why hire an American comp sci major for $100K when an Indian or Russian or Chinese immigrant will do the job for $50K? Why hire an American high school drop out for $20 dollars an hour when an African immigrant will work harder for $5 or $10 per hour? Then watch the unskilled Americans go on welfare, and engage in alcoholism and drugs.
There is work for everyone, including immigrants. Not working is a choice. The price of labor is not suggesting we are near a problem like you describe. I'll take more hard working immigrants over the unskilled American currently choosing not to work.
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Well you wouldn't get thrown out of my class
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So... not a fan of truflation got it!
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Immigration might be a drag on certain state and local economies but it is a positive for the national economy. Especially when you have labor shortages, low birth rates, undesirable demographic issues.
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41 minutes ago, gfp said:
Bro, it's mission accomplished
My biggest forward looking concern about inflation is a Trump presidency. Trade wars, tariffs, deglobalization, tighter immigration. I would add replacing Jay Powell if I thought the Federal Reserve had anything to do with inflation.
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7 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
But in all seriousness - he does have a problem - people are extrapolating the progress on inflation to date out to the 2% target......the reality is that we are hitting this stubborn underbelly of 3.x% inflation that isn't budging from what I can see
Bro, it's mission accomplished
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2 minutes ago, Eldad said:
Good call Spek. Down 15% today. Digging in.
(re: APD) - my friend works for their division that makes huge heat exchangers for LNG facilities down in Florida and that division is just killing it. Unfortunately it is a small part of the overall company. That division will build a lot of hydrogen infrastructure as well, but today it is primarily LNG.
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8 hours ago, wondering said:
I went to Bangalore for two weeks for work. I was there 10 years ago.
- Terminal 2 is absolutely spectacular. Not good, not good for by Indian standards. Burt good by world class standards!!! A tourist destination in of itself.
- Also used Terminal 1. They have streamlined the enter process since when I was visited 10 years ago. Not perfect, but certainly better than it was before.
- My Indian colleagues said the Modi "rigged" the system ensuring that the BJP party will rule for the next +20 years.
- Previous Indian political parties were not really align in the typical left/right model. My Indian colleagues said now that has changed and BJP is the party of the right
- Please if anyone disagrees, please speak up. I just reporting what my Indian friends told me.
- Nothing really more insightful to add - Bangalore is growing by leaps and bounds, traffic is worse, and it crazy that FIH is selling at 60% of book when there is such growth and growth potential. The Airport will continue grow nicely.
Thanks for the post wondering. I am just a basic American know-nothing but I shared your post with my much smarter friend from Kerala and this was his reply:
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I agree 100% about the standard of the airport. I had a chance to see it while I was there a year ago, and I was mindblown that this is an Indian airport. The new airports in Mumbai and Delhi are also apparently world-class, but I didn't see them, so i have to take the word of a 100mn people for it
BJP will rule for the next +20 years for sure. They have a lot going for them. They are nowhere as corrupt, they have an understanding of the majority of the population, especially the Hindi-speaking, north Indian belt. They have a cadre system tied to the Hindu society that trains them young, and they are very active in rural India, college unions, temples, etc. The only other party that has anything similar is the Communist Party which is only relevant in 2 states. They have proper organization and structure for absorbing anyone, including from your opponents, with clarity about their future, and a way up. They are very intentional about avoiding bureaucracy and nepotism, which is hard to avoid in a developing country like India.
Indian political system has always been rigged, but that does not mean the elections. For the first 60 years after Independence, it was rigged in the favour of the Indian National Congress, and now BJP has "unrigged" the system through several acts like demonetization - which hampered the black money funding that INC used to benefit from. In the absence of an official lobbying system like in the US, all funding is under the table. In addition, political power used to be exerted by goondas or criminals. Even religious minority groups used to be funded in the name of secularism but were criminal organizations for INC's benefit. Those groups have been dismantled by several goonda acts. The Kashmir/ Pakistan border was a contentious issue with such groups standing in the way of any development/ changes. BJP enabled the police/ army to dismantle such groups, flirting with human rights issues.
Previous Indian political parties used to play politics with religion, favoring one over another to create divisions and also use them for votes. BJP is the party of the right, and transparent about what they are. They maintain that India is a country of Hindus as the name suggests (Hindustan) and the others are welcome. Previously, we used to call the country secular, as in the constitution. But, I also think most of the population were never of this belief, nor will be. This was only an idea among socialist elites who ran the country till India opened up the economy in the 1990s.
None of this is surprising including what his Indian colleagues said. BJP has a much smaller presence in South India where Bangalore is situated as well. We have 6 different states speaking 6 different languages, who think their cultures are way different than northern Indians'. As I said very different from the Hindi-speaking belt. But they don't form a majority. All these states have different parties ruling them, who can't get along with each other, and hence a fractured opposition.
The main reason why the BJP will rule for another 20 years is the absence of leadership, strong opposition, or a semblance of a nationwide structure/ organization that can build something to beat them. Modi and the leadership of the BJP are quite selfless in prioritizing the party, Hinduism, and the country in that order. People respect that and the lack of corruption and nepotism which the INC was notorious for. INC leader - leader of the opposition is the grand grandson of the first Prime Minister. Every generation in that family has gone on to become the Prime Minister. Most people have had enough.-------------------
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12 hours ago, yesman182 said:
@gfp how do you think Peter Liegl of Forest river gets the cash for that purchase. Obviously forest river makes a lot of money, but I doubt they keep 300M around for a potential purchase. It seems like Greg has implement more of a sweep account system. Do you think Peter calls Warren and ask for the money or does he call Greg?
These days he would call Greg not Warren. In the zirp years they might have just used a bank line but I think Omaha has been clear that they would prefer the subs come to BRK for cash instead of using high rate bank financing. Greg is the guy all of these CEOs are dealing with (except Ajit). I think he's doing a good job but not everyone is sold on the Greg Abel show.
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1 hour ago, ValueMaven said:
Forest River made a $300M acquisition ...
https://stnonline.com/news/starcraft-parent-company-forest-river-acquires-collins-bus/
Thanks for posting the article. Strange that they would say this out loud (I'm sure not uncommon but probably illegal) - "Forest River and Starcraft agreed to stop making school buses in 2020, when it acquired REV Group’s competing shuttle bus business."
Fairfax 2024
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
Well he would be smart to exit before the annual report comes out, that's for sure. I suspect his best exit opportunity in the shares was to exit on this morning's open but I assume he expressed this "short" in the credit default swap market so who knows how those spreads look (not me).
Fairfax has no options and trades in in Canada and OTC - this isn't a very good "short and distort" candidate to get others on the bandwagon.