gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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Now there's someone who will survive a little inflation!
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13 minutes ago, jks327 said:
Research started in April 2023, not much interested in keeping cash in an investment account!
Seem like your track record will be influenced to a great degree by whether or not January 2024 was a good time to go from zero to fully invested in US stocks. Sounds like this isn't a fund? Good luck, I do hope it works out well for you and I like to see the meaningful position sizes.
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13 minutes ago, jks327 said:
As of this morning:
STLA 11.83%
MLI 10.36%
WIRE 10.28%
STM 9.87%
TOL 9.86%
DHI 9.45%
VSH 9.38%
TEX 9.15%
CCRN 4.28%
BRK/B 4%
GS 3.78%
OSK 2.99%
FLEX 1.17%
EGRX 1.08%
RELL .9%
SCSC .83%
WY .65%
NKLA .01%
Read about it here:
So is this a new fund you started and fully invested all of it in January 2024? Didn't waste much time getting fully invested.
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14 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:
Why do you want to? FRFHF is generally more liquid although for both I would convert the FFH.to bid/ask before putting in an order.I usually prefer to own the actual underlying over a non-marginable OTC ticker. I am fine with FFH in Canadian dollars (30% margin requirement for the most part, sometimes 50% since MW report). But in US tax deferred accounts I buy FRFHF because I don't want to buy the CAD before each trade and can't borrow it.
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Hmmm. Why is it a good idea to sell a crown jewel just because you can?
"
Truist Agrees to Sell Rest of Insurance Arm to Stone Point, CD&R
- Deal ‘will further strengthen our balance sheet,’ CEO says
- Truist Insurance Holdings valued at about $15 billion in deal"
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Thanks for the clarification. I primarily use Interactive Brokers in the USA and I can never seem to find FFH.U (the US dollar traded Toronto shares) - does anybody else with IB have access to FFH.U ? Fairfax India shows up no problem.
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Well not that it matters much but the newswires are showing that both RBC and BMO have increased their "price targets" for FFH.
RBC from $1085 -> 1200 (
I assume this is CAD and they aren't very bullish) USD, good for themBMO from C$1550 -> C$1650
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12 minutes ago, ArminvanBuyout said:
What happened to it since 2021? Seems like share price has completely collapsed and is barely above pre-COVID levels
Russia invaded Ukraine?
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9 hours ago, Haryana said:
Next Hint: Prem Watsa of Fairfax mentioned it somewhere in the last few years.
Well now you are just handing out the answer. This is one remnant of the company Prem and Buffett reference periodically
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The hint made me think of RLI (replacement lens insurance for contact lenses originally !!) but despite having a similar return profile since 1999 it isn't the chart you posted. Plus RLI has a data series going back to 1972.
Oh well keep guessing
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1 hour ago, Hektor said:
I guess Berkshire mostly writes short tail insurance, while Fairfax tends to write more long tail insurance. Is this assumption true? If true, how, if at all, does this impact the quality of the float at either companies?
Berkshire writes some very large, very long tail policies. They are a specialist in messy long tail stuff like the Lloyd's deal and the more recent AIG deal. They also write some shorter stuff like 1 season Cat and a lot of what GEICO writes - but I wouldn't say that Berkshire's business is shorter duration than Fairfax's on average.
An example:
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1541TN/
$10 Billion premium paid to Berkshire up front (float). First claims payments by Berkshire didn't start to go out for many years later.
A description from the WSJ at the time:
"The agreement with Berkshire’s National Indemnity Co. requires AIG to pay the first $25 billion of claims as they come due. It is expected to be at least several years before Berkshire would begin tapping the roughly $10 billion for its portion of responsibility. The Berkshire unit will pay 80% of net losses and related loss-adjustment expenses if more than the $25 billion is needed for policyholders. Berkshire’s exposure is capped at $20 billion."
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9 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:
dumb question - whats the difference between FFH.TO vs. FRFHF - which is OTC. Honestly, I dont even really know how OTC works.
There is not a ton of difference really. FFH.TO trades in Canadian dollars and is marginable. FRFHF trades in US dollars and is usually not marginable.
Sometimes in a US-domiciled IRA it is easier to buy FRFHF since you can't borrow Canadian dollars and it adds an extra step to first purchase the exact amount of Canadian currency you need to make the trade and then buy the FFH.TO. In taxable accounts I just buy the Toronto listed shares.
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18 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Float is just a more useful version of debt. There is no net tangible increase or decrease in value from float.
I'll agree to disagree on that one!
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5 minutes ago, Viking said:
If Eurobank initiates a dividend this would provide a big tailwind to dividend income. I think Eurobank reports results in early March.
While a dividend is a dividend, I don't think it will have much of an effect here since Eurobank is receiving equity method accounting. We are already recognizing our full share of Eurobank's profits as profit so a Eurobank dividend won't likely show up in the official 'interest and dividend income.'
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Thanks, I couldn't find it in my own downloads. Didn't think to download it again and check the pdf meta data.
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Does anybody remember the date that the Annual Report / shareholders letter was released last year? I couldn't find a press release. I suppose I could check my 'downloads' folder..
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1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Going to be honest - the share price reaction to an a amazing earnings report is a bit disappointing
Makes me wonder if 1) the market had it "right" and the earnings rally was what we saw in January or 2) if we're back to the days of the getting the earnings look for free and the stock responds 2-3 days later
Either way - I am somewhat shocked we didn't get a pop of 5-10% from market participants who haven't been following this as closely as we have.
Were there any surprises in the Q4 earnings? Seems like we knew all of that ahead of time: TRS profit, Micron profit, October bond moves, interest rates move for the quarter, lack of big Cats, etc
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I assume Mr. Block will be long gone by the AGM. I think Fairfax does have a more "accurate" or "up-to-date" book value than, say, Berkshire and should trade at a lower price to book ratio than Berkshire all else being equal (they are not equal, Fairfax has higher growth, more float leverage and generally lower quality earnings vs. BRK). Berkshire's carrying values rarely get re-marked higher by transactions. Marmon and Pilot are two recent examples of required Fairfax-style write-ups but we will probably never see BNSF or GEICO marked up on Berkshire's balance sheet.
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With age, Mr. Thebeau, you will gain some humility and realize that you are not all knowing in all things and that everybody else around you are not entirely clueless idiots. In most of your posts on this message board, you have an absolutist, I told you so attitude that suggests youth and inexperience. The combative, unpleasant tone of your posts does nothing to help the collegial atmosphere we have developed here over decades. Take it easy and enjoy the ride.
(and no, as you are about to suggest, I am not long a bunch of bonds at 4% and getting blown up. nor do I own paramount or xyz losing investment you so wisely called)
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2 minutes ago, MMM20 said:
wait, did I imagine him saying “goddammit” before they cut off his mic?I think that was Prem hollering something on a hot mic - not sure what he said but it might have just been a greeting to the next analyst.
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Call over
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Long history of reserve redundancies. Question was about reserve releases. Over time our reserve releases could well be significant.
4th quarter gets more "full" reviews for reserve releases / adjustments.
2016 and 2018 years at Allied and Crum & Forstner have had some unfavorable development similar to the industry experience at large. That effect is overwhelmed by positive adjustments elsewhere and for other years.
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Interest & Dividend income "locked" at approx. $2 Billion annually for approx. 4 years.
If soft landing, we can renew at these rates.
If hard landing, interest rates can go down, but the spread on corporate bonds can increase.
Atlas forecast - $300 million going to $600 million by 2025 and Fairfax still sees that forecast as appropriate.
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Disclosure regarding associates that have been on the balance sheet since Jan. 1 2020. Cash in / cash out / profits booked / contingent liabilities question.
Will you be disclosing these transactions?
Jen Allen taking the question.
"disclosed under IFRS in our annual report"
Block, "Rather than going for the bare minimum that IFRS requires, why not go for enhanced disclosure. Why leave it there?"
Next question please
Fairfax 2024
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
Weren't those the approximate results that we all expected? Which may have been a major factor in the bull run preceding the earnings announcement?
Did you expect a worse Q4 than what was reported?