motownsf

This may derail the topic. In a similar vein, any other small hedge funds in the sub $500m range that you would recommend?

WNMLA trades at huge discount to value of one of its holdings.

It would fit the profile, but I think it's too small of a company to make a difference.

Exactly...What what he does, not what he says.

What are realistic sales and EBITDA margins like for international Hooters restaurants compared to what the US concepts might be? I imagine EBITDA margins are lower than BWLD right now as Hooters was a struggling concept and HIG typically buys semi-turnarounds out of their buyout funds. BWLD has roughly 15% EBITDA margins. If Hooters has 10% EBITDA margins and does $2.3m per store roughly in the US, the average US store does $230k in EBITDA. I doubt the concept does the volume it does in the US because, while the emerging markets growth story is hot and sounds great, the average person in Africa and Brazil has much less disposable income to spend on wings and beer. They will need to grow the store count a lot going forward and one must believe in the growth story.

What are realistic sales and EBITDA margins like for international Hooters restaurants compared to what the US concepts might be? I imagine EBITDA margins are lower than BWLD right now as Hooters was a struggling concept and HIG typically buys semi-turnarounds out of their buyout funds. BWLD has roughly 15% EBITDA margins. If Hooters has 10% EBITDA margins and does $2.3m per store roughly in the US, the average US store does $230k in EBITDA. I doubt the concept does the volume it does in the US because, while the emerging markets growth story is hot and sounds great, the average person in Africa and Brazil has much less disposable income to spend on wings and beer. They will need to grow the store count a lot going forward and one must believe in the growth story.

I'd be willing to bet that 20-30% of Sears real estate makes up a great majority of the RE value.

The vast majority of people who have been involved with Herbalife have lost money. The company claims that anyone who loses money is really a customer (not a distributor), but the truth is there are millions of failed distributors. The majority of businesses fail in general. I agree that MLM isn't the most ethical industry, but MLM will exist. Do you really think the government would shut it down, forcing distributors to lose their livelihood and a lot of money in rapid fashion? I think Ackman is toast in this short position, partially because he brought it upon himself by creating a public circus around an investment position. Short sellers like to do this, but many of the best short sellers don't have to, and you never read about them or their positions in the news.

In a high unemployment environment, do you really think this administration will go hard against the MLM industry, which is made up of self-employed lower-middle class constituents for the most part, to benefit a hedge fund manager's short position?

I've invested a bit on Lending Club. My portfolio has an annualized return of ~13% and I haven't had any defaults thus far (I've only been doing it for about 4 months or so). I have a portfolio of a couple hundred loans. Obviously it's too early to draw any major conclusions, but the technology is really good and the product is very intuitive.

Nate, What did you use to screen for these? Interesting data.

First time I've seen Bollore mentioned...I own some.

I know of 4 people who got the S and are having electrical/software problems. The car is awesome to ride in though.

Anyone know how to get this letter in pdf?

You should buy from WarbyParker. It;s like Zappos for glasses. $100 for nice looking frames+lenses, and very convenient.

Raised a lot of money, didn't make money. End of story...

DaVita is a great business with obvious tailwinds (aging population with bulging waistlines=more diabetes). You have tremendous customer lock-in too, as customers come back regularly for treatments at the same facility.

Being a franchisor is all about marketing (to customers and potential franchisees). If you are good at that, you can grow, and then you are just a royalty collecting, cash-machine.

I don't understand how anyone can willingly say that they are casting a vote for Obama because they are so bullish about what he can do for the economy. He has had his chance, and the results are quite mediocre, despite the increases in equity market values. He is a lightweight who is now just resorting to gutter political ads and character attacks on a guy (Romney) who is one of the most squeaky clean people on the planet (despite the flip flopping on certain issues). In thinking about the long-term future of the country, I know that Romney/Ryan have a more compelling plan and more credibility beyond just having a big checkbook and a printing press.

Exactly right. Retail stores have to be very close to manufacturing centers in the chocolate business an inventory turns so quickly and quality/freshness ultimately determines the level of customer satisfaction. This doesn't hold as much truth in the bulk candy business (gummies), but is true with chocolate. Will be interesting to see how many new manufacturing facilities they open.

Interesting he is trimming consumer staples. Perhaps he is more worried about margin compression from input costs going up and diminished pricing power.

Any thoughts on the most exposed mortgage insurers?

Hoping Berkshire will buy Amcon at some point as well through McLane.

Whomever said IKEA, I agree with that...

He is allowed to do what he wants and it's allowed under the rules. Yes, he became fabulously wealthy as a result of some skill, foresight and a lot of luck. A lot of that is a result of the system in place here in the US. However, this is his decision. It always amazes me how angry people get about how much everyone pays in taxes, how much money they make, etc. If you are a shareholder in that person's company, it's a legitimate concern. Otherwise, people do not work hard, take risk, etc for the sole purpose of giving their money to the government, particularly a government that is chronically irresponsible. I am sure Saverin is not going to sit back and not give back. He will probably donate a lot to charity, etc, which is a heck of a lot more impactful than sending it to Washington.