SmallCap

I just started looking into a micro cap regional bank holding company MCBC The bank exhibited all the problems of excess that many back had back in the 2000-2006 and they suffered greatly for it. They then changed out most of their management and I am wondering if they are a good value play at this point. Welcome any thoughts or feedback. This back operates in my back yard and many of my clients use/owe them money. SmallCap

I noticed that the price of FMMH is now down to $25.92. Is it now at a point where it becomes a good arbitrage situation based on the probability of the offer being accepted or renegotiated? SmallCap

Excellent question but what can we as outside passive minority investors do about it in the way things are currently setup? because the BOD is nominated by the management and not by shareholders what can shareholders do about it without a big proxy fight? Smallcap

Let me see if I have this straight: ShadowStats has "proven" that the CPI understates inflation. Google has stated that in the online world the CPI has overstated inflation Not exactly a apples to apples comparison because of Google's focus on the online world but still it add more impetus to question all three measures and not take any of them as gospel. Seth

Broxburnboy, this is a brilliant statement when you consider investments in a pure vacuum and it seems very much based on Robert Kiyosaki which I assume is where you have gotten this logic. The problem with this way of thinking is that it takes investing out of the real world, because in the real world I have a physical body and I need a place to live and function. If there was no such need and I didn't need to live any place then your argument might have more merit. Now looking this way at RE investments outside of the location that you need to live in also produces some problems. Using this logic, the way that assets and liabilities flip across the balance sheet based on whether or not they are rented is problematic. according to this definition if they are rented then they are an asset but as soon as that renter moves out then that RE is now a liability. So, when you buy some RE with the plan of renting it out you are actually buying a liability which goes against your definition of creating net worth. So by your argument you should only buy RE after someone else has gotten renters into it and if the renters ever leave then you should sell it immediately because you don't want to have any liabilities. This sounds like a recipe for poor returns. Remember that investing always happens in the real world where we need a place to live and we need a good night of rest to be able to function properly. Any investment strategy that doesn't take these basic things into account is a recipe for disaster. SmallCap the other problem with this thinking is how

A couple of questions to make sure that I understand what I am reading: What makes the fed balance sheet go up and down? does the fed have anything on the liabilities half of their balance sheet? Where do the assets that the fed used to buy these interest bearing securities come from originally? SmallCap

article on his studying up for the movie Wall st http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/wall-street's-celluloid-heroes-brolin's-%22evil%22-addiction-labeouf's-650k-payday-535447.html?tickers=^DJI,XLF,FAZ,GS,JPM,NWS,SCHW What do you think, do you believe that he turned 20K into 650K or did he add more to it?

I believe this is what he was referring to as the 1999 article. http://www.jeffreyluke.com/Financial/Mr_Buffett_on_the_Stock_Market.html SmallCap

another auction of tarp warrants coming up http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasury-announces-new-apf-288467893.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

I am in a significantly better position: at the start of 2008 I had no debt by the end of 2008 I had 90K of debt due to some very untimely expansion of my own company, a loan to another company that was squashed in the credit crisis and a bunch of medical expenses around the birth of my son. 2009 was the hardest environment I have been in with my business, couldn't get a new client in the first 6 months for any amount of work that I did (wow was that frustrating) but working like a dog for that year, cutting expenses and living on nothing allowed me to repay all my Debt by July of 2010. As of now I again have no debt, my business is generating what it was before 2008 and my investment accounts are nearly double what they were at the end of 2008. We have so much to be thankful for.

I don't have the comparable numbers for other metals like platinum but if you remove the historical aspect of Gold then wouldn't there be the same type of arguments behind platinum? Take away the historical aspect of gold and what is so different about it in comparison to any other rare metal?

you are talking about something that is valued by collectors not metal recyclers. Those coins were removed from circulation quicker and more aggressively because of their metal content and so those coins became rarer and therefor worth more.

Sanjeev I have great memories of shopping in the Vancouver Safeway for some reason that I just can't explain. I am not a big shopper ( I like to find my deals online) but I remember shopping in Vancouver with fondness, maybe it was just the general feeling I had about being in Vancouver.

Would real estate qualify as a hedge in the same way that these other areas would qualify and if not why?

Does this distinction make sense to anyone? and if so could you explain how this actually works? has there been historical situations where inflation has over time accelerated into hyper or when hyper has slowed down into none hyper?

These has always been my two arguments about why I have never even been interested in investing in gold. I see all the supposed benifits of gold being also available in other basic metals but they have more to offer in my opinion. I also much prefer the idea of investing in real estate (they're not making any more of it these days) over gold (they are always finding more of it) and RE has the advantage of producing something and an income stream while you wait. I have been amazed at how home values around me are so good that they cash flow positively so easily. I really like the idea of investing more in RE.

A friend sent me an article talking about the possibilities of Hyperinflation, the article was advocating the possibility of Hyperinflation and was from a rather alarmist perspective but laid out a potential scenario where we could jump from deflation straight to hyperinflation. but the thing that interested me was the distinction that it made between inflation and hyperinflation and I wondered if this was the case because I had always taken hyperinflation to be inflations that escalates rapidly. Here was the explanation in the article.

First my name is Seth and I live in Southwest Michigan along the shores of lake Michigan. My main occupation is as a facilitative business consultant or business coach. I enjoy investing but I enjoy working with small business owners to develop their businesses even more. My main area of investing has historically been nanocap companies. Ones where I can develop a relationship with the management and really keep my finger on the pulse of the business. Interests involve most anything outside, this includes Running (preferably along the beach) biking, walking and other activities. I have had a livelong love of reading ever since my dad read to me as a 5 year old. I read everything from business, novels, religious, economics, psychology, personal development and the list goes on and on. This last month I read all four of Malcom Gladwells books, Great reads and they really make you think. I happen to be married to the most Beautiful women I have ever seen and we have 2 young children ages 2 and 3 months. I decided to add some life to this thread by posting some pictures of my wife and kids.

Thought this would be an interesting counterpoint to the negative news thread. http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110470/the-case-for-economic-optimism;_ylt=AjpI.8e5TDbVfiuEoPqTJBG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhMGRmZmphBHBvcwMzBHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA3RoZWNhc2Vmb3JlYw--

what is the date?

I looked into them back at in the late 90s I believe. At that time they were also trading at a decent discount to the relitivly easily calculated assets that they held. they intrigued me then but never had a compelling reason to buy them and so I never did. I haven't kept up with them lately but they sound like I remember them being at that time. Marty Whitman held them for a while in his mutual fund and so he would have a writeup on them in his letters a number of years ago if you would like to find it. SmallCap

Buy as many companies as you can find and do sufficient research on that fit your level of value/potential/margin of safety requirements. Never buy or hold more companies then you can keep track of in the way that they should be kept track of. For me this usually means holding less then 10 positions because of how many I can find, research and keep track of. beyond that I don't think that there is any rules in my book. I would personally love to be more diversified but I will never diversify for diversity's sake if that means not understanding the businesses I am investing in. SmallCap

Didn't WEB have some interesting calculations about the housing supply and comparing it to population growth both organic and immigration. I seem to remember about 2 years ago him talking about the oversupply and how long it would take for there to become a demand for housing again. Does anyone else remember this? SmallCap

Just how much further can interest rates drop? I haven't done much looking into bonds but it seems to me that aside from going with specific bonds and picking winners when people are going with bond funds that they have an upside in the 5% range with a whole lot of downside possibility. That doesn't set well with me and my thinking. Maybe I am wrong about the upside maybe there is more potential upside then I am seeing. The way I am looking at it I would prefer a 1/2% yield in a MM that is safe from decline then a potential max of around 5% return with a significant downside possibility. For me to step out and take a risk there needs to be a more significant upside potential. SmallCap

I had forgotten it but Warren and I share the same birthday, Maybe out of courtesy I should invite him to my birthday party. SmallCap