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much faster, well done.

Do we have any precedent for a world reserve currency or a currency that the rest of the world sets their currency in relation to like the USD ever having hyper inflation and what were the outcomes? the examples of Hyper that are always trotted out are Germany Chile Zimbabwe none of these were at the time significantly depended on currencies in the world and so their hyper inflation became an isolated event but if the US ever has Hyper Inflation then the ramifications will be felt worldwide in a massive scale and I am wondering if other currencies like China will inflate with us to keep pace with us.

How about the price of Seth Klarmans book. I think the same idea of the sports card could be applied to this where there is an artificial limiting of supply and if that ever ends the bubble will be burst.

Ragnar, Your point is interesting and I considered it before but didn't go down that path because I have never heard of anything like that before and don't know what it would that, if it is possible, and what the implications are of that happening. But you have poked a hole in my theory of the interest rates returning to normal withing the next 15 years. The other Hedges you mentioned are interesting plays of their own and could be successful but I am not sure they they accomplish the same thing as shorting the 30 year. those other options have both upside and downside possibilities. What I liked about shorting the 30 year is that in my mind there is limited and reasonably calculatable downside but significant upside potential. I remember the guy in the book the big short. He didn't know how the unfolding of the CDOs would play out in the market, he didn't know how it would affect the banks or he could have shorted them, he didn't know how it would affect the RE market or he could have shorted that, but he did know that those CDO's were full of a bunch of junk and that eventually that junk would come to light and he found a way to short it that had limited downside and massive upside.

Let me state up front that I have never shorted anything ever and have never been comfortable with the upside downside potential in doing so. but I was thinking this morning about people buying the 30 year bond and had read recently that the average holding period of a 30 year bond was 20 days (I can't substantiate that claim) Meaning that the "holders of 30 year bonds were pure speculators using the greater fool principle. I have a really hard time seeing anyone buying a 30 year gov bond who actually intends to hold it to maturity. Whenever you have that kind of a situation it is likely to end badly for the last set of holders of that security. This got me to thinking about the possibility of shorting the 30 year bond. Now, I should mention that I am not aware of how an investor goes about shorting something like the 30 year bond and if it is feasible to do so. I also know that I will most likely never actually invest in this idea but it is interesting to think about. The reason that I don't short is that the bubble can remain inflated longer then I can stay solvent and there is unlimited downside in a standard short position. Unless I am missing something there seems to be a limited potential downside to shorting the 30 year bond that includes the interest payments and the small potential increase in bond value based on interest going into ridiculously low territory. The upside is fairly obvious and potentially substantial as interest rates rise, which I assume in all reasonableness they would have to within the next 15 years. So my question is how would one go about shorting the 30 year bond and what are your thoughts on this type of a trade? SmallCap

I have been using the YF Quote function now for a little while and it has been very useful, thanks for pointing it out guys. but now I am trying to figure out how to put quotes from options into a spreadsheet and for some reason the YF Quote function doesn't seem to work with option quotes. Any ideas out there to get option quotes into a spreadsheet?

good article but I was disappointed with the quality of questions that the interviewer asked. He could have asked such better questions.

Uccmal, Your points are very well made, I hadn't considered the competition issues but it makes a lot of sense. On Swiss Re, there is a lot of difference between buying shares in an insurance company and buying the entire company for a man like WEB. Myth, I had completely forgotten the CNA run off.

Does it strike anyone as strange that: Prem and Fairfax have bought 4 or 5 insurance companies in the last few years The Buffet wannabe Biglair is trying to buy an insurance company Meanwhile the man who started the trend of buying insurance companies so that you could invest the float hasn't bought an insurance company in years and is instead buying railroads and financial stock. just strikes me as a little strange that if there are such bargains out there in the insurance field and companies that are ripe for taking over that buffet has been a none player in the field.

This is fun with all the merger related activity currently going on in Michigan, I can't remember this much interesting activity outside of the auto industry for a while now. I have an Aunt who works for Fremont and Fremont MI is my family's hometown. Kind of fun dealing with relatively local companies for a change.

Interesting article, I wonder how this fits into the balance sheet ressesion senario. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cash-Hoard-Shows-Borrowers-bloomberg-901282465.html;_ylt=Ai.V.sR.2dEx_oGDyc_skvG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1NnBoMWhvBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawMxdHJpbGxpb25jYXM-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode= On a micro level I am seeing serious deleveraging going on all around me. From the people that I talk about finances with to the small companies that I consult for, they all seem to be improving their balance sheets. SmallCap

broxburnboy, I am not using leverage at all with the 50% ownership of that company in Grand Rapids which has no debt. the reason it was setup without leverage is so that we have the potential of selling them on land contract. On the single home in Holland I am using my home equity line of credit which has variable interest at 2.25% which means my interest is $55 per month. I currently have that home on both the rental market and the for sale market and whichever happens first I am fine with it. it is for sale at 64K SmallCap

I live in West Michigan which is very different economical from the east side which has Detroit and Flint. I am amazed at the prices of RE and the way they cash flow. I picked up a house in Holland, MI 3 months ago for 24,000 and put 6,000 into it and it is now on the rental market with a rental management company for $650. Management company cost 8% of revenue and they do all the work and take care of all the issues and maintainance. taxes and insurance will run $2,900 per year. I am also right now buying a 50% interest in a company that holds 3 single family houses in Grand Rapids. all three of them are rented out with a 1 year lease agreement at $600 each per month totaling $21,600 per year revenue. Taxes and insurance should run right around $8100 per year on all of them together. the management company will again take 8% totaling $1760 per year. This leaves gross profit of $11,740 my half of which is $5,870. For this 50% interest I am paying $25,000 which seems like a great deal to me. Those numbers assume full rental with is the current situation and the rental agency is currently running 97% occupancy. We also have the possibility of selling these houses and my estimate of the sales price is between 75K and 90K. I am comfortable with that margin of safety.

I took a small position at 26.50. the risk reward seemed right. SmallCap

I live in Michigan and I can agree with that. Michigan has done little to help businesses here for the last many years. I have some hope that the new Gov who I expect to be Rick Snyder who was formerly head of Gateway computer and calls himself a business minded geek will do something to change that. SmallCap

Is it my imagination or are a lot of people expecting us to have problems with inflation? Thought this was an interesting short article. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pimcos-ElErian-Says-Fed-bloomberg-3604860149.html;_ylt=Ap5RBv7ZoWDl8c9vL.YsDiy7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2NnV0M2d0BHBvcwMxMARzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZmVkZWFzaW5ndG9z?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode= SmallCap

Thought people might be interested in this chart which give a look at what percentage of homes in forclosure each bank has at this time. SmallCap

Has anyone figured out a way to short the Vancouver RE market?

Does this boardmember feel like sharing it with the board?

Has anyone found the ticker symbols for these warrants in Google finance yet?

StubbleJumper, Thanks so much that was perfectly what I was looking for. I knew there was a simple solution buy my Google searches surprisingly turned up nothing of value. Another question is where do I find the list of the other parameters that I can use? SmallCap

Does anyone here have the know how to place live current market data such as quotes and balance sheet data into a cell of a spreadsheet? This can be either an offline spreadsheet such as Excel or an online one such as Google sheets. I just want a place where I can enter in a symbol and then have additional cells with live constantly updating information that I can calculate from. SmallCap

FMMH is now trading at 25.80 the market is really discounting the possibility that this offer goes through. What are your thoughts? is it so improbable that the BOD will accept/negotiate/get another offer and they will be able to go back to business as usual. I wasn't terribly surprised that the last offer failed to go through but at $29 this is a significant premium that will be difficult to pass up. SmallCap

Sanjeev, Thanks again for making this the best board I have read on investing. The quality of posters here on this board is incredible and it takes a quality person to attract quality people around them. So, the quality of this board says a lot about you and your character. twa, in reference to your question about being critical of Buffett... I think that he answered your question in his post.

Has anyone tried out the Nook and found out how it handles SEC filling type documents and PDF's? SmallCap