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SmallCap

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Everything posted by SmallCap

  1. there are many sites that do their best to track the holdings of BRK and then there is the list of major holdings that comes from his annual reports but is anyone aware of a good place to find the list of holdings for FFH? SmallCap
  2. I read that article and it was an interesting read. I live near Grand Rapids, MI which is 2 hours from Detroit, the house prices here are ridiculously low as well. One of my clients has a great business of working with investors setting up LLC's with the partners and he buys the properties rehabs them and manages the rental of the units and it is incredible how easy it is to cash flow with them at these low prices, plus he has been able to maintain over 95% occupancy. I think he has now rehabbed and rented out around 300 units. There is some great investment opportunities out there in cash flowing rental units. SmallCap
  3. is there a none subscription location where we can read it?
  4. I have become more interested in investing in Tips and am trying to figure out what the best way to get exposure to them. My basic theses: From my rather amateurish assessment of the macro economy it appears to me that we are heading towards either Deflation or significant inflation. What I do not see at this point is our resuming the nice smooth 0%-3% inflation on a steady basis that we have experienced over roughly the last 20 years(yes there are a few exceptions in there). I foresee (wow, does that ever sound pretentious) either Deflation or significant inflation in the next few years. I have read a lot of views on which of these we will experience in the next few years and while I lean towards the inflationary view I really don't feel that I can say so with any confidence. So here is the reason I like Tips: In an inflationary period: Well I think this is fairly obvious how this will do in an inflationary period, some asset classes will do better but many will do worse. In a deflationary period: Surprisingly this is where I like tips because most asset classes that do well in an inflationary time will get killed in a deflationary time while Tips will hold their dollar value which in a deflationary time that is exactly what I want and when I sell these tips for their face value after deflation I can reinvest that money in assets with deflated prices. In a period of little change: This is in my opinion where Tips don't shine at all. Lets say that inflation is in the range of -2% up to +3% such as we have had for the past 20 years. in this environment Tips will hold their value but there are so many other asset classes that would be better. Summary if I could predict that there would be inflation then I would direct my investments towards companies that have an advantage in that environment such as ones with lots of long term debt and pricing that will increase with inflation such as energy. If I could predict deflation then I would invest in Gov bonds. But I don't see a clear answer about which way it will go and so I wanted something that will do well in either environment. So that is the reason I am interested in Tips and if anyone can show me the error of my thinking I would appreciate it. but now on to my question. what is the best method of investing in Tips, should I open a treasury direct account and buy them at an auction or purchase them on the open market with my broker or should I go the simple easy route of buying into a Tips mutual fund and what are the downsides of owning them in a fund? Also can someone explain in what way or in what situations a I bond is a better option then a Tips bond?
  5. In addition to looking at this question from an economic point of view and what the market will cause to happen I have been trying to look at this question from a political perspective. In other words, what do politicians want and what will keep them elected. my conclusion is that politicians would drastically prefer inflation rather then deflation and so they will do whatever they can to produce that effect (I am not saying that they can truly control it). If we have a moderate amount of inflation (not Hyper) then theoretically our houses would increase in value and the debt load on those houses would be easier to pay off, meaning that fewer people would default. Also all of the debt both personal and governmental would be easier to pay off. now I realise that this is only part of the equastion and the market has a lot more to say about what direction we go in then the polotions do. I also know that this is a rather simplistic view that doesn't take into account some of the other consequenses that would come about. but we are talking about polotionions here and they like the quick fix. and from their perspective the worst thing that could happen is serious deflation. Can someone poke some holes in this thinking? SmallCap
  6. I am from Michigan but would love to join you if you do it in January when I will be in the SF area.
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