ERICOPOLY

Ive seen this as a theory in plenty of articles that discuss the Saudi strategy. http://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2014/10/17/putin-erdogan-saudi-arabia-the-balance-of-power-is-shifting/ http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/25/3596403/russia-oil-prices-sanctions-140-billion/ http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-saudi-oil-prices-putin-iran-conspiracy-perspec-1121-jm-20141120-story.html Ah, thanks. I like more variety than just the version about trying to kill US high-cost production.

I read that Reagan conspired with the Saudis to push down the price of oil in the 1980s. This was motivated by the desire to inflict pain on the Soviet Union. So far I'm surprised that I haven't seen at least one conspiracy theorist suggest that this time Obama asked the Saudis to hold production in order to put the screws on Putin.

I know the snow is needed to keep from overfilling the reservoirs (and having the excess flow to the ocean). But they are so low that it's all going into the reservoirs (not over a spillway and out to sea). After these storms, those reservoirs will still be under their average levels for this time of year. And as mentioned in this article, these reservoirs are important for irrigating farmland. The past year farmers were hitting the groundwater harder because the surface water wasn't available to them: http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_27120528/california-drought-winter-storms-finally-starting-boost-storage The state's two largest reservoirs, Shasta Lake near Redding, and Lake Oroville in Butte County, are projected to take in 510,000 acre-feet of water in storm runoff by Tuesday, with 370,000 going to Shasta and 140,000 flowing into Oroville, according to the state Department of Water Resources. That's a staggering amount of water -- 166 billion gallons from a single storm, enough water for 2.5 million Californians for a year. It would fill half a million football fields one-foot deep -- all captured by the reservoirs that form the linchpin of the federal and state water systems that serve millions of California residents from San Jose to San Diego and irrigate vast expanses of Central Valley farmland.

My local water supply (Lake Cachuma) made the list at #2 most likely to dry up: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/world-lakes-drying-up/30646819

I read that a lot of drilling rigs from the Bakken were brought to California in this drought -- demand from farmers needing deeper wells after the groundwater levels dropped. Whoever owns these rigs doesn't want this rain, what with the oil bust and all. Should this pattern hold, reservoirs might be topped up by May.

don't they buy at the same time they are issued via dividend reinvestment? does that make a lot of sense? I don't know. Does a DRIP program ever make sense or does it only make sense under certain criteria? I'm thinking the same thought process could be applied to options. Another way to word the question is, should companies ever have a DRIP program. You should add a DRIP program if you are getting tight on cash and you think this might scare the market less than cutting the dividend. And of course if misleading people in this way doesn't bother your conscience.

With Taxes, probably. Are they borrowing against their foreign cash reserves to avoid getting hit by bringing foreign earnings onshore?

What was first, deflation or lower oil prices? Well in Japan they had deflation even with rising commodity prices. We're not seeing deflation here yet, but we are seeing lower commodities. Real purchasing power is rising as is employment. So far anyway :-X

lower commodity prices means you can make stuff cheaper. productivity gains mean you can make stuff cheaper. lower commodity prices mean consumers can buy more stuff with same paycheck, leading to higher factory utilization and employment gains, higher productivity means we make products with fewer people. lately I believe productivity has disappointed during an environment of cheaper commodities. Isn't this a bullish combination for capacity utilization and employment gains? Somehow I believe that is a headwind to deflation.

They don't seem to care about the client's tax bill either. They expect the index to plunge or go nowhere, so they stick a capital gains tax bill on the client to free up cash for pursuing their pennies in front of steamroller play. It's highly questionable. Also, the put option premiums are taxed at ordinary income rates. Further, the benefit of selling calls on an index (instead of writing puts) is that if the index goes up, you have deferral of taxes as the option can perhaps be rolled without taxes. Oh well.

You aren't including the effect of the calls that have been written.

Owning the stock and writing the call has the same profile as selling the downside volatility. That's a truth. Your point though sounds right that there may be a more liquid option market for the index vs individual names. They could own the index and sell calls, or hold cash and write puts -- whether or not they want to be business owners is irrelevant.

Actually there is look-through goodwill in their equities portfolio. They held JNJ before at market value, but market value was vastly in excess of JNJ's per-share tangible book. It was implicit goodwill that fluctuated with the market value of JNJ shares. So then JNJ is a huge bargain at today's prices which we can view as merely book value :-)

It says they are selling out of high quality equities like JNJ. But get this... they did so in order to write index puts, among other things. They might have just written calls on their stocks. I wonder why they prefer the downside of the hideously expensive index over the downside of their high quality names?

Historically Fairfax purchased things at discounts to book. The goodwill asset started to grow materially upon the Northbridge takeover... since then the premiums paid over book value have been piling up. It trades around 1.5x book I believe.

That's the multiple that sits ABOVE another multiple. Out of the $8.5b common equity, you've got nearly $1.5b goodwill. I could take Fairfax private at $1,000 per share and then sit here and argue that it was a mere bargain at $600 when it traded at 40% discount to the new book value.

A government program to pay starting bonuses to incentivize white kids to drop out of school and become armed street-level drug criminals should help to improve police relations with the black community. We don't have enough racial diversity in armed drug-related street crime.

Personally I think the war on drugs is responsible for the police behavior. It's why in their minds every black kid is about to reach for their gun. Imagine if we'd never had the concept of a criminal drug user or a criminal drug dealer. What are the police biases towards blacks today and where in the law might they be cultured? Who do they feel they are in mortal combat with as footsoldiers in this "war on drugs".

I have yet to meet anyone locally who is interested in discussing individual stocks. Except the local veterinarian who held TSLA but sold too soon (my car introduced the topic).

I figured he lives too far away.

Hey, as long as we're quoting song lyrics... I'm just a no class beat down fool and I will always be that way I might as well enjoy my life and watch the stars play

Maybe you could keep the current job and find outside happiness in a new hobby or social club. This takes pressure off of needing to find happiness from your career. I hesitate to recommend skateboarding.

A two hour commute each way was the biggest reason why I wanted to quit my job.

Fallout is being felt: ”Everyone in manufacturing is smiling at the moment,” said the ISM’s Mr. Holcomb, because manufacturers benefit twice from cheaper oil. “It costs less to run the plant and input materials cost less.” http://online.wsj.com/articles/ism-manufacturing-index-slows-slightly-in-november-1417446885?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Amazon has some xylitol sweetened bbq sauces. anyone tried any?