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ERICOPOLY
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Posts posted by ERICOPOLY
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On 8/17/2022 at 10:40 PM, Parsad said:
After reading this, I have to wonder if a complete reset is necessary to get fundamentals back to the front of the line and scare the bejeezus out of the speculators and smart money:
Cheers!
Nah, I'm speculating with SPY puts so that's not going to work.
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My grandmother did well buying shares after tips from her broker.
How is getting advice from a broker, and following that advice, any different than shameless cloning?
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On 8/11/2022 at 7:36 AM, rkbabang said:
I do. I'm an engineer, so I've worked with quite a few people from India over the years. One guy I worked with for about 10 years before he moved back to India. He had talked about it for some time, but after his kids spent a couple of years in school, he moved back. He said he didn't like how his children were being "Americanized". That was about 7-8 years ago, I still talk to him from time to time and he says he's happy he made the move back. I also worked with a guy from Pakistan who moved back to Pakistan because he didn't like living in America. I don't understand it, but everyone is different.
Getting to be a while back now, but about 20 years ago I met some Indian engineers at Microsoft who were complaining they could not afford servants on the US incomes and wanted to go back to India where they could have household servants despite their lower incomes.
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11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
He is a guy you want to pay attention to but my sense is that he has become more consumed with getting attention and being “the guy who called it” versus just making money.
When you manage money, you make money off of other people's money.
Trumpeting a past success is possibly just marketing in this business.
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Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) often have co-morbid anxiety and depression. Alexithymia and emotion regulation difficulties are commonly seen in individuals with ASD and in mood disorders.
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He is self-diagnosed, which leaves open the possibility that he doesn't have it.
And his diagnosis today would be Autism Spectrum Disorder, not Asperger's. Asperger's is not a diagnosis.
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4 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:
I see that if you withdraw funds from margin you risk a margin call while waiting for your investments to 'mature'.
Not if you hedge your margin with puts in a portfolio margin account.
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1 hour ago, tnathan said:
SPY puts (Sep 19 expiration). We are approaching the 200 day MA which has historically been a spot where the market has taken another leg downards in previous recessions / downturns after a bear market rally. I don't think anyone really knows how bad the economy will look in 12 months but with vix levels down to 20 this is a very cheap and potentially asymmetric bet after the strong rally.
I bought SPY puts too after your post reminded me to do so.
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The difficult landowners are the ones who aren't aware of the public right of way between the high water marks. There was even a guy on Bainbridge Island who built a fence extending well across the beach out into the public right of way which made it impassable on foot.
Imagine building a fence across the sidewalk in front of your own house just because it is your private property.
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23 hours ago, LC said:
I've sometimes worked a stream down into private property - usually missed a posted note.
And it is often the case that you are within your right to do so provided you walk within the stream or the high water marks. It's his land, he can be told to fuck off, but doing so may not be advisable.
https://www.in-fisherman.com/editorial/understanding-riverine-rights-today/385605
Montana: Western states are known to be fussy about riverine rights. Montana is perhaps the most friendly to anglers and boaters. Rafters can float and anglers can wade in rivers that flow through private land in Montana so long as they enter from public property or with permission from landowners. They can even leave the water and walk between the normal high-water marks.
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Also, the dealership wanted to replace the "coolant hose w/plastic flange" part that runs from the thermostat to the cylinder head. The hose and the flange are one single part and are "Genuine BMW". The plastic flange is a common point of failure because they literally disintegrate. Then when it completely fails the coolant leaks everywhere and you get stranded somewhere on the highway and maybe the electric water pump is damaged too.
The dealership noticed that coolant was beginning to drip out slowly around my plastic flange and so they were recommending to replace the entire part before things get worse as they are known to do.
So I found that Rein makes an aluminum "mickey mouse" flange for only $20 and it comes with a hose clamp. So you just take a hacksaw and cut off your plastic flange and install this one instead. Much easier job because the other end of that coolant hose is in a tiny cramped space and the DIY forums say it's a nightmare to remove.
But the dealership is only allowed to replace the deteriorating plastic piece with another plastic piece that will also fail in time.
The dealership service guy said he had no idea the aluminum piece even was an option and agreed it would be much better. But he won't install it because it is not "Genuine BMW".
So we're doing that as well. Super easy DIY job for $20 in parts. They quoted $338 at the BMW dealership.
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I did pay the dealership $225 to tell me everything that was wrong with it. They found a couple of engine issues that they fixed under warranty. Warranty??? There is a 15 yr and 150,000 mile warranty on the SULEV engine (BMW's Super Ultra Low Emissions Vehicle). They said it was a $2,200 repair.
The alternator: they said they found "overcharging faults". So they recommended replacing the alternator for $1,600. I took it to another shop and they quoted $1,050. The difference I figured out by researching cost of parts. The "Genuine BMW" refurbished alternator is $800, and I believe is manufactured by Bosch. But you can also purchase a newly refurbished Bosch alternator for $330 that is not "Genuine BMW". That is likely the one that the other mechanic shop was going to install. The dealership is only allowed to install the "Genuine BMW" part.
But there are many OE parts out there (not "Genuine", but literally exactly the same). And for a fraction of the cost.
I'm quoting one of the websites that sells OE parts:
What are OE BMW Parts?
OE BMW parts are exactly the same as Genuine BMW parts, but they have the logo or brand scratched off of them.
An OE manufacturer might make 10,000 control arms, all with “BMW” branded on them, but then BMW says “oh, well we only need 7,000 of them”. So 3,000 control arms sit in the manufacturers inventory that dealerships aren’t going to buy. What do they do with them?
The manufacturer isn’t allowed to sell these to anyone other than BMW, because it has the brand on the part and doing so would be a licensing violation. So, they physically scratch the BMW brand off of the product, so that they are not violating licensing agreements, and then sell these to parts stores like ourselves to sell to end consumers.
These parts are usually more difficult to come by as there is always a limited quality of leftover, unsold parts that BMW didn’t buy direct from the manufacturer.
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My father is a funny guy. He was an HP engineer for 30 years. He built the extension on the house I grew up in.
He always did all of his auto repairs... including the welding... One day I was 16 and driving a girl around Mountain View on Castro St and I took a right turn slowly and the entire vehicle body collapsed down and was sitting on the right tire. I'm not sure anymore what broke. But it was a great memory and I liked this girl and enjoyed the extra time with her. She's a professor now in North Carolina.
He used to keep his 1960s Rover TC 2000 running by filling up on aviation fuel at the Palo Alto Municipal Airport where you can buy 100 octane fuel (it is fully leaded fuel). That's the only way the old engines will perform. Last week I told this anecdote to the service technician at the BMW dealership and he said "that's the most American thing I've heard all day".
And now he has a Tesla. haha.
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I haven't been able to work on my house in Dunsmuir since April because my daughter is refusing to live with her mother. So now I have full custody of her and she doesn't have her driver's license yet.
But she is now getting her permit and I bought her a 2008 BMW 328i for $6,000. 120k miles on it.
It needs new motor mounts and a new alternator and normally those two fixes would cost $2,000+ but I have a NEW HOBBY!!!
I bought a $75 refurbished alternator taken from a wrecked 328i and I bought a pair of new Genuine BMW engine mounts for $220 and I'm going to get my son off of video games and take the car down to my father's house who is the experienced DIY mechanic with all the tools. Three generations of Eric's fixing my daughter's car for a day.
Between the directions on PelicanParts and the videos on YouTube, we have it covered.
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On 6/23/2022 at 11:57 AM, Gregmal said:
Philip Morris once said cigarettes were good for you.
But Juul is being pulled from shelves. Go figure.
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On 4/5/2022 at 5:44 AM, tytthus said:
First order fun is instant gratification stuff...
Second order fun is stuff that maybe didn’t seem fun at the time, but looking back afterward was... (Nailing an equity analysis thesis and having your stuff go up?)
First order fun is having your stuff go up an nailing and equity analyst.
Second order fun is nailing an equity analysis and having your stuff go up.
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10 hours ago, Castanza said:
PEX can still burst but it's not as likely to do so. Make sure you're using the crimp ring style if you're putting it in an area you can't access (behind a wall etc.). SharkBite push to connect fittings are great and simple for areas you can access. Big benefit is you can go copper to pex without a problem. Saves so much time. I haven't had any problem with mine. I even have a 1 inch push to connect line which is copper to pex and my PSI is definitely a bit high at 85PSI.
Get the ball valves and use a lot of them. I recommend the ones with the bleeder/drain port. This is incredibly useful for future projects or changes that you might not think of now. Easily allows you to drain a line without having to turn all the water off and you can isolate sections even more.
Cost wise it's a no brainer. 3ft piece of 1/2 copper is what $20 right now? No soldering, no cutting, no mess.
the bathtub and shower head connections are made inside a wall — the other type out there is the expanding sleeve type PEX fitting which I thought may be more secure than a crimp, but maybe too awkward to implement inside a wall.
as for the ball valves, that is why I want to do end runs to every fixture back to a PEX manifold. I see now that SharkBite sells a PEX manifold with 24 ball valves that are all push to connect. The valves will all be in a central location at this manifold. Ball valves in the hot & cold input lines feeding into the manifold would be a good addtion.
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3 hours ago, gfp said:
Supply lines are easy with pex. The trickier part with diy plumbing is knowing all the rules for venting the drains. I have also inadvertently run pvc drain pipes too tight up against framing to where it is loud when hot water travels through the drains and they try to slightly expand against the framing.
Is any of this work going to be inspected?
I think it will be inspected if I want to get a legal apartment designation for the basement conversion.
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Plumbing looks very simple with PEX. Does anyone have a word of caution?
Explanation:
https://www.bobvila.com/articles/pex-pipe/
Shopping cart:
1x A PEX Manifold with 24 ports is $224 at Home Depot. https://www.homedepot.com/p/Apollo-24-Port-PEX-Manifold-with-1-2-in-Brass-Ball-Valves-6907924CP/202709904
2x 300 feet of PEX-A 1/2 inch tubing is $109 at Home Depot. https://www.homedepot.com/p/Apollo-1-2-in-x-300-ft-White-PEX-A-Expansion-Pipe-EPPW30012/302740664
I'm looking at a total cost of around $442 for all the tubing and the manifold which will replace 100% of the hot & cold water pipes through the entire house using a dedicated tube running from each of the manifold ports directly to the endpoint (at the kitchen sink for example) with no connections in between.
And the tubing is flexible so it doesn't matter if the water freezes.
You don't need to shut off the house water when you want to work on a sink: you just turn the valve for the sink's hot/cold tubing at the PEX Manifold. Similar to shutting off a branch circuit breaker when you want to work on the wiring in a room instead of turning off the main breaker for a house.
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This video shows how easy it is to add outlets through the baseboard:
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29 minutes ago, Castanza said:
@ERICOPOLY Whatever you finish the wood tops with, make sure it's food safe. I believe Waterlox is but some Poly may not be.
https://www.cuttingboard.com/blog/what-type-of-oils-are-safe-to-use-on-your-cutting-board/
We were wondering about that -- polyurethane is supposedly okay when it's all set, according to the FDA. At the cafeteria at Microsoft the food service was provided by Marriott and the black plastic knives melted when you used them to cut into an orange peel. We notified the staff and a cafeteria manager came out and said they were FDA approved knives. Love the FDA.
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35 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
I had to re-wire a good portion of my lake house only because it was old 2 wire (no ground) electric with a fabric like insulation that crumbled when you touched it. I didn't have any extension cords going outside and back in through a window though.
Yes we have that crumbling stuff too. It is a mixture of original two prong outlets with original knob & tube wiring and the new stuff illegally installed. There are a few modern 3 prong outlets that look legit. But I'm running all new wires. I want to reposition a lot of those wires anyway for the finished basement apartment.
The only heat in the house is a kerosene monitor in the living room. The original giant kerosene monitor from 1920 is still in the basement -- the handyman neighbor and his wife bought their home as a fixer 10 years ago and she unbolted their monitor heater with her sisters and removed it themselves. It belongs in a museum -- the entire house.
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1 hour ago, gfp said:
I think you will find that modern electrical work is one of the easiest skills to master. I actually kind of enjoy electrical work because it is so easy to do yourself. I got started by wiring a few complete houses (open wall) alongside my electrician so I learned his methods and pet peeves, etc. Fishing wires in closed walls isn't nearly as fun but it sounds like you have access from below.
Yes the access from below is the key. There is a bunch of wiring that was done illegally. Like you'll see a splice from a ceiling fixture instead of inside a junction box. Or an extension cord going around the outside of the house then in through a bedroom window and connected to an outlet that was just screwed to the exterior of the closet door trim. It's so bad.
Because plaster/lathe is a pain to deal with, we're just going to install new outlets in the baseboards and easily accessed from the basement/crawlspace.
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5 hours ago, meiroy said:
Amazing! So, what's the youtube channel?
"This Old House" is good.
For the lath and plaster repair these are good: https://plastermagic.com/video/
Electrical is the more complicated part. My father did it all for himself so he is a resource and he will help with replacing the main electrical panel -- it helps that the house already has 225Amp service. Otherwise it's learning the codes which takes some time.
Zelman on housing
in General Discussion
Posted
Well, the whole notion of "bearish" is predicated only on a pullback from peak prices. Like, if the S&P500 trades at PE of 50x and pulls back 20% in price to trade for a PE of 40x that is regarded as "entering a bear market". But that's still people agreeing to pay 40x earnings, which in itself isn't all that bearish.