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ERICOPOLY

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    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

     

    https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signature-5w-30-full-synthetic-motor-oil-1-quart%2c-12-pack.product.100691500.html

     

    $25 for 6 quarts 5w-30 synthetic, Kirkland brand has been proven in tests/comparison to be on par with Mobile 1…its good stuff. 

     

    I would strongly advise against using FRAM filters, google searches if you have questions. I tend to keep my vehicles for quite a while, if someone is trading up often it probably doesn’t matter then because you wont own it long enough for issues to show up. I run WIX filters, and they can be had for around $6 if you look online, I buy mine in packs of 5. Other good filers are Mobil and NAPA Gold. I probably still have some WIX 51042 for the GM 5.3 I took a 1999 Sierra to 240k miles before I passed the torch to another owner with no major issues. 

     

    Another tip…

     

    I run Fumoto valves on my truck/suv vehicles, I don’t off road with them, so I don’t worry about breaking any off, literally makes an oil change a 5 min, tool-less job. Throw the catch can under the burb, flip the switch, its draining, pull oil cap, swap filter, flip Fomoto to closed and start pouring fresh oil in, cant be simpler. 

     

    https://www.fumotousa.com

     

    Again if guys don’t plan on keeping vehicles past 100k miles probably doesn’t matter, but there IS a difference from a maintenance perspective running a quality synthetic oil for the long haul vs the bulk generic stuff from a Jiffy Lube etc and cheap filters. 

     

    For $30-$35 ($25 oil and $5-$10 for filter) its the cheapest insurance you will ever buy and takes 5 min every couple months depending on how much you drive, I go 5k mi changes. Verified by family friends who are professional racers and own machine shops building engines for the racing community. 

     

    Thank you for the info!!  

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ERICOPOLY

    That's $40 for 6 quarts full-synthetic Castrol Edge 5W-30 and $4 for the FRAM filter.  

     

    This is about $100 at the oil change shops and it takes no time at all.

     

    EDIT:  And I could have saved $11 today by getting the oil from Walmart:  they have a 3 pack of 5-quart Mobil 1 full synthetic 5w-30 going for $73.28 which is about $24 per 5 quarts.

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ERICOPOLY

    11 hours ago, Castanza said:

    LOL well at least you’re honest. No there is definitely some stuff I won’t mess with (mostly engine stuff). Vehicles have gotten really complicated and require a lot of special tools. Not worth the hassle anymore. My FIL still changes his oil…in his driveway…during the winter. Lol it’s what? $20 service fee at Jiffy Lube? 

     


    Haha yeah I’ve seen some of those failed boat launch vids. Understandable

     

    My wife was quoted $1,500 by the BMW dealership a month ago to change my stepson's BMW ignition coils and spark plugs.  This is the equivalent of changing light bulbs.  I ordered the Bosch parts for $190 and he did it in the garage himself last night in 3 hours.

     

    And today I changed the oil on my Suburban in my driveway.  I don't even need a jack, there's enough room under there and it takes less time than driving to Jiffy Lube and back.  $44 total.

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, thepupil said:

    I looked into buying a boat recently. For a center console that I could fish the bay with, whether i spent $20k or $200k on the boat, fuel maintainance, winter storage, slip fees, insurance m, etc would be $10-$20k/year in my area. Decided to forget about it and charter/rent from other owners for $500-600/day. Do it 20x / year, it’s still cheaper. 

     

    My driveway has room for a boat trailer and I'm living 1.5 miles from the boat launch at Folsom Lake.  So it got me thinking about whether a boat would be a decent way of generating cash.  

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ERICOPOLY

    6 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

     

    Aren't stocks, but bonds especially, merely paper that can be created out of thin air to increase supply to sell?

     

    I didn't understand his point to be one of higher interest rates enticing issuers to issue more paper.  But of course they would if they needed more funds to make the higher interest payments on newly issued bonds.  

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    “During the pandemic, a lot of people had reasons to retire and the way that markets evolved allowed them to retire,” says Miguel Faria-E-Castro, a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

     

     

    Faria-E-Castro: ...  The fact that they didn’t want to get sick and the fact that they had to care for loved ones, and on top of that, the way that markets evolved allowed them to retire because all of those very high asset returns lead to historically high increases in net worth, on average, for U.S. households.

    Hasenstab: If these asset valuations change, how could that affect those who have recently retired?

    Faria-E-Castro: In principle, these Wealth Effect it works both ways, so it works both when asset valuations go up and when they go down, but it’s hard to say at this point.

    Hasenstab: So some of these recent retirees could re-enter the workforce?

    Faria-E-Castro: Yes, they could.

     

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/timely-topics/retirements-increased-during-pandemic

    Have We Hit The Top?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

     

    I'll be doing this for the winter. Have two bedrooms of my three bedroom condo rented. 

     

    Will have a rooftop tent on the car and take it out west for 3-months while the renters clear most of my mortgage. 

     

    👌

    Awesome

    Have We Hit The Top?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ERICOPOLY

    Costco also has gift cards for sale at significantly less than face value -- like a pack of four $25 gift card for $69.99 to Coldstone Creamery.  Or two $25 See's Candy gift cards for $38.99 (with no expiration date).

    Have We Hit The Top?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ERICOPOLY

    On 6/23/2022 at 10:35 AM, Gregmal said:

    The same bs argument folks made about gas and grocery greatly effecting the lower folks

     

    Lunch:  $1.50 for hotdog and refillable 20oz soda at Costco food court.

    Dinner:  18" fresh-baked pepperoni pizza is $9.95 at Costco food court (easily 6 meals here at $1.66 each meal)

     

     

     

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, changegonnacome said:

     

    Yep agree - falls in 401k, IRA's, home values + rising prices driving negative wealth will make some retirees un-retire........another lever the FED has via financial instruments that can increase the labor force......SPY @ 3,000 will bring potentially bring a tonne of retirees back to the workforce as their withdrawal rate starts to tell them they DONT have enough to get to 85 or whatever 

     

    I think you are right.  An asset bubble encourages early retirement and popping it encourages a swift reversal.

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

     

    Agree - social security I think is politically impossible.....

     

    They would need to offer a bonus, perhaps an increased annual benefit, if workers voluntarily deferred retirement beyond age 67.  They already have such an incentive to work to 67 (full annual benefit) instead of 62 (reduced annual benefit).

     

     

    Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

     

    Does it, in practical terms, matter what caused it? If what caused it, boomers retiring, isn't changing anytime soon?

     

    The medicine required is the same either way, right?

     

     

    The dosage of the medicine will need to be heavier if the driver of the labor shortage is excess retirements.

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