.jpg.e99b8ee1bba15f1fdb768412a015dd09.jpg)
ERICOPOLY
-
Posts
9,589 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by ERICOPOLY
-
-
1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:
I think we could get a recession while the Labour Market remaining relatively strong. A recession is just 2 quarters of negative GDP. It doesn’t take much to get to that point. Could be just a consumer strike due to eroding buying power for example.
We had a recession in 2020 didn't we? Stocks went up I think?
-
And then you have the domestic and global travel industries already decimated today... will a recession more decimate it? Is that even possible?
-
Homebuilders? We're undersupplied nationally.
-
Layoffs? Where? Who will need to layoff staff?
Apple? Good luck.
Microsoft? Good luck.
Facebook? Good luck.
Tesla? Good luck.
Amazon? Good luck.
Netflix? Good luck.
-
Let's say TSLA market cap gets destroyed. So f'ing what guys. Who cares. They are selling the cars like hotcakes and making profits. They won't lay off their workers just because the stock goes down. This isn't like the Dot Com bust where the companies themselves evaporated overnight and all jobs were lost along with it.
-
19 hours ago, muscleman said:
This is a repeat of the 2000 dot com bubble top. First we get a rotation of tech stocks down value stocks up. Then all stocks go down together. The bottom will be in 2 years later.
There was a recession tied into that, not just a stock market revaluation. Recessions drop stock markets overvalued or not.
The businesses in my community cannot afford to layoff any workers -- they need at least some warm bodies in the room until robots can replace everyone. I think the layoff cycles deepen recessions (people losing jobs stop spending).
-
5 minutes ago, Sullivcd said:
Is there a federal program that ends or something? I saw walmart said they will cut paid leave in half starting Monday. I've wondered why so many people are lining up for covid testing.
I asked her to clarify: OSHA ETS. Her company extended it through today (but it expired in December). I don't know how many other companies extended it.
-
-
Personally I think people will just keep working despite knowing they're sick. Just hide their sniffles to avoid the loss in pay.
-
My wife was telling me yesterday that Monday should be interesting because those people who are out 'sick' will no longer be paid during their absence from work. That program of paying people to be out with covid ends today.
-
25 minutes ago, LC said:
That said I took a look at the CDC's excess deaths in Colorado for 2021 and it's definitely outside the average band. NYC however it is barely a blip for 2021. But then again CO has more never-vaxx than I think NYC would.
I'm not sure if we're there yet, but at some point excess deaths won't be a reliable indicator because covid has pushed many people into the grave early, and most of them were going to die anyhow within a few years. In other words, we should be expecting excess deaths in 2022 to be lower than normal (because they already died in 2020-2021). I'm talking about those people with existing severe health problems who keeled over after contracting covid.
-
49 minutes ago, KFS said:
Is this the real reason Musk has been selling his TSLA shares?? lol.
One theory is that SpaceX needs money to fund his satellite network.
-
1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:
Anyone here also thinks that 2023 may be the year of recession? I think even Elon Musk tweeted a similar take. By 2023, the stimulus money hoard that is saved up will be burned and the inflation will start to eat seriously into the buying power.
I'm confused as to what is going on at present. Local businesses haven't been able to find bodies to fill positions... how do they cut staff in a recession?
-
A bunch of local coffee houses and restaurants are closing at the moment for in-house dining (takeout only) because the staff is out sick. My daughter's cheerleading practice and competition shut down this week because both coaches out sick with covid.
Should all be back to normal in a few weeks, but it's no wonder the jobs report is bad.
-
30 minutes ago, wabuffo said:
I was looking at a company that had total borrowings of $2.5B at the end of 1999 -- but those borrowings had ballooned astronomically to $116.9b by the end of 2020!
That's 47x !!!
What's even worse, it that this company has other contractual commitments that are even larger than its long-term debt! And those have been growing exponentially as well.
When will the music stop for this highly leveraged company? Gotta be soon, right? Should be an easy short!
The name of this company?
Berkshire Hathaway!
An example of the unintended irony of this thread's title.
Bill
Apple's debt ballooned from $300m in 1999 to $136B today.
-
-
PDD today.
-
Roberts was responding, in part, to an investigation by The Wall Street Journal which found that between 2010 and 2018, 131 federal judges ruled in cases involving companies in which they or their families owned shares of stock.
https://www.npr.org/2021/12/31/1069525986/chief-justice-john-roberts-ethics
-
19 hours ago, KFS said:
Very good (IMO) interview with Jim Chanos... Discussion of parallels with dot-com bubble, discusson of crypto, inflation, etc.
Is he being interviewed by Stiffler's mom?
-
Didn't we do that last year?
-
On 7/9/2021 at 3:29 PM, Parsad said:
Doesn't matter which party, they all trade while knowing important inside information revealed in government votes, committees, reviews, etc. Cheers!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-husband-122625921.html
I can not make sense of the article. It says Paul Pelosi exercised call options and that the difference between market price and strike price is all profit.
WFT? How does that make any sense?
Is the author simply misunderstanding and/or spinning a yarn? Did Paul Pelosi tell him what his cost basis was? Probably a bunch of BS assumptions being made to make the story appear more exciting.
In Pelosi's case, the call options he'd previously bought for Alphabet (which were due to expire the day of his purchase) allowed him to buy it at $1,200 a share while the shares closed that day just over $2,500, a difference that accounted for his profit.
And what's this talk about exercising an option being a 'profit'?
-
4 hours ago, Viking said:
- Atlas at US$14. As new-build deliveries happen we should see EPS growth of 15-20% every quarter for the next couple of years.The $15 strike 2023 puts offer a 27% return to whomever writes them and $15 isn't far from here. I'm not sure why, the stock has not been volatile.
-
1 hour ago, NotSoWise said:
So even Adobe at -10% today, is still way too expensive, even for the quality. Think about how crazy the valuations are when they have small miss and the price goes down 10%.
And when the opinion of a single sell-side analyst drives T up 7%.
-
15 minutes ago, muscleman said:
Some are defensive stocks that trade like T-bills. Overall, it looks just like 2000. When dot com stocks crashed, BRK went up, but in the next two years of bear markets, these value stocks decline slowly until the bear market is over. I think we are right at that inflection point.
The correlation of these stocks are high these days. A lot of funds will be facing massive redemptions and they just have to sell everything in the end.
I watched BUD rise throughout 2001 and 2002, it was incredible. And today, it's at 1/2 of the level of 5 years ago and rising today as the market falls. It was cheaper back then though.
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted
Yes, and TSLA skyrocketed. It had to be the most "oh shit!" moment for the insurance company shorting them as a hedge against market decline.