libor.plus1

Also, major banks have a break up of 80% buys, 15% holds, and 5% sells. Are these the type of numbers you want to rely on? Can you imagine an economy where 85% of the public companies grow at 15%+ percent a year?

first pharagraph: That valuation report by Credit Suisse is garbage. "I'm just gonna slap on a random percent to my NAV calculation to get it a ballpark figure that Sino could trade around." What is 20% of a number that has a huge probability of being made up? Also, it seems like they already had a neutral rating on the stock when it was trading around $20+. Now they are still neutral when its a fraction of that? This is the exact reason people SHOULDN'T have faith in RBC, Dundee, or any other major bank. Their numbers are garbage. Can you honestly tell me that any of these guys sitting in their Toronto office have spent any credible time on the ground in China to the same extent someone like Block who lives there has? And yeah, Block released his report for free. He made money off his position rather than through subscription. He got paid one way or another for his work. How is that any different from the BB analysts who get paid relative to how well their Ibanking arm can market shares of Sino Forest?

"Our corporate structure is so simple: Sino distributes timber to offshore units, who sell that timber to AIs. But our offshore units aren't paid in cash, they are paid in more timber!" "We don't know if our AI's pay taxes or not... we have no way of knowing, so we just have 4 year contingencies just in case they don't pay taxes" "We are accused of a 5B fraud, but I don't know why you would want a letter from E&Y that we provided them with the name of our AIs.. that's a strange request.. but I'll try" really? REALLLLYYYY???

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/facebook-to-file-for-public-offering-cnbc/article2058613/ Well, looks like I was right at least on one thing.

I don't know much about how this company operates, but couldn't it just shift it analytics to online and mobile instead? Also, just because traditional TV viewership is decreasing, I don't see their market research being affected much. Will their sample size be smaller? Sure, but enough to make the sample not reflected of the population? Not so sure...

Glenn Beck, is that you? (addressed to more than one person) At this point, any intelligent argument and point-counterpoint has run its course. This is becoming Yahoo. Let's just chill out and see what happens next and how this unfolds.

Just on a side note.. Dundee is the investment bank for Sino... And that RBC guy has apparently spent a grand total of 5 weeks over the span of 5+ years physically visiting Sino (he said this as if it were a great thing)... Yippy Ka Yay!

You're that guy who when asked what he would do for a million dollars would answer "as little as I had to" =) Wow, a million bucks seems so trivial since the days of Breakfast Club.

So, here's a little game. State your idea of what the economy/world will look like 12 months from now, and in a year, we'll see how accurate we all were. I'll start: In 12 months, we will likely be where we are now, but the trajectory will be much different. I expect the economy to bounce back slightly from the lull we are in now. In a few months I think commodity prices will recover, as will the general economy. Problems with europe will be pushed back and temporarily leave the headlines. The stock market will do well in the winter months. Facebook will go public. However, underneath the quiet calm, interest rates will still be 0, employment will be less than inspiring, and house prices will continue a downward trend. Growth in China will encounter larger problems related to reduced ROI from capital investments and higher inflation. These strains will start to turn the economy south in about a year. New stimulus will have very limited impact, particularly on main street. The problems in Europe will become more pronounced as Germany and France admit that the only way out of the problem is through restructuring, and Greece is forced to default.

I do think Sino has responded relatively well given the time they had to prepare. More points remain to be countered. As for mgmt not being able to buy back... that doesnt mean the corporation cant buy back... does it?

I've thought this for a long time, but now would be a good time to just say it: I respect a great many people on this board. But I also feel that way too many people here like to fellate Buffett and hold FFH as gods. Buffett is a great investor, and FFH is a great company. But not everything is JUST LIKE THAT ONE TIME BUFFET INVESTED IN THIS or THAT ONE TIME EVERYONE TRIED TO SCREW FFH. Also, how many people here really gave a shit about Paulson before the little headline grabber with GS? I dont recall anyone here quoting him and how awesome an investor he is. All of a sudden he's become the guy that can do no wrong? Give me a break. It's true, not a lot of people know MW. But is that really what the crux of your defense is? "MW could be lying because they are the new guys on the block". As if the established guys (big bank analysts) were doing such a great job in the first place. I'm just really surprised how hard some people on the board, who I've known to otherwise be rational are trying to ignore the report that MW put out. I almost feel like someone else hacked your accounts and is posting on your behalf.

ValueBuff, I understand you have a position in the stock... But I would ask you to consider that there is a chance you may be wrong on this. I would also recommend you ask yourself if it's worth it. Speaking strictly from your posts, you seem to be fighting a very uphill battle with regards to this one stock. In a month, it may be possible that you will look back on this thread and think "Maybe I should've just let it go"

I think he is talking about me. I just signed on the MW board because I wanted to keep up to date with their new releases. But, I've also been on this board since the first FFH dinner, so I don't know what to tell you. I mean, its your money, so do what you want. But I think in hindsight you might regret being long. Also, everyone should keep in mind that the whole purpose of an RTO is to bypass security standards and procedures. The very essence of an RTO is based on the premise of avoidance.

"reported cash value" And yes, they take stakes in their short position. That's how they get paid. BB analysts get paid through investment banking. What's your point?

I read the release. This is pretty much the same type of response that ONP put out after MW released their report, specifically with statements like "MW never contacted us to confirm their figures", "Who is Muddy Waters anyways?", "we are hiring third party legal and accounting firms to review and confirm our numbers" etc etc.

Muddy Waters does great, great work. Much better than pretty much any research out there. I should also note that no company to my knowledge has been able to remain intact after an attack by Muddy Waters. They do their research, and they do it very well.

I don't think anyone seriously expects Greece to survive through this. There's a lot of noise about Greece being forced to leave the EU. But that would be like kicking a drunk underager out of a high school party. There are many more indebted countries in the EU than just Greece. Perhaps a better response might be for Germany to leave the EU. That would erode the value of the euro and perhaps stabilize some of the poorer countries who really had no business adopting such a strong currency in the first place. Anyone want to venture a guess as to the ramifications when Greece is forced to default?

All we need is a little Dyson Sphere to solve all our energy problems.

As someone who has lived in China and done DD on chinese companies, this thread gives me a giant boner. It was more entertaining reading this thread from beginning to end than it was watching the last episode of Lost.

Heh. I find the 'gold is fiat money' argument almost amusing since inherently it derives from the idea that within a current investors lifetime or investment horizon, people will suddenly wake up from a 20,000 year old norm and decide 'yaa, gold is really not money.'

Questions like this about lvlt have been asked over the last three to four years. I'm surprised there's been so much talk about a stock with such piss poor performance. Surely there are much better stocks out there, and you wouldn't even have to look that hard.

WB has a pretty penny invested in GS. Wonder what his thoughts are.

"Under a 8% growth (discounted cash flow 5%), 5 year outlook scenario and a change of PE from 7 to 15 this stock is worth about 35$. (18% CAGR Return) Under a more optimistic 12% scenario, 5 year outlook, and a change from PE of 7 to 20 this stock is worth about 60$. (31% CAGR return) 12% growth is still conservative considering China's economy... So what am I not seeing here?" Those are some rather rich assumptions.. especially for a microcap. There are a ton of Chinese based micros out there that are trading for a fraction of 'fair value'. But given the huge risks associated with Chinese companies, a trade far below fair value is the norm.

That's the thing. Now any time something goes wrong with a Toyota, its gonna make frontpage news because it makes for a good story, and american mentality the way it is, everyone is looking to make a quick buck off a lawsuit. Whether its actually Toyota's fault or not is a moot point, the shares will keep getting pounded.

I think value investors like most on this board have a tendency to jump into a stock way too fast. Toyota may have lost more market cap than it will ever be liable for... but that doesnt mean the stock isnt gonna keep getting pounded over the next year or two as this drags on.