SharperDingaan

You're not following the right people and/or muting the right keywords, then. Twitter is whatever you make of it, very maleable. A few tidbits, courtesy of some friends who were very good at this - and in the pre 'social media' world. They were both women, and they both died peacefully in their beds, surrounded by grandchildren - at a very old age. The intent of high volume communication, is to make you auto-filter ... make you create an echo-chamber, consistent with your own view. All I need then do to change your view -- is change the frequency of messages containing your filtered words. You will think you have more support than you actually have, and your opposition is bigger than it actually is ... 'cause I tampered with your feed ;) The intent of noise, colours, motion, etc. is to overwhelm. Just as your eyes do not 'show' your brain everything they see (they show 'bits'; your brain fills in the rest), your cognitive processing is selective. Hence, all I need do to change your view, is to make those things I want you to process - addictive. If I then control the frequency of this input, I can essentially 'control' you. :) The intent of the manipulation is to either 1) make you do something ('do nothing' is the enemy), or 2) make you accept change (the 'current' is not sustainable). The think nothing of it, and don't think to question. Obviously, the tool has many potential applications - some good, some not so much. There are of course a number of very effective 'counter-measures', but they will remain anonymous. SD

Politics is unavoidable in the investment decision process, but we don't need to see it every time we log in. For most people; just keeping it on ignore, and 'sampling' once every 2 weeks, is more than enough. SD

We get tequila shots too :D https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-layoffs-firing-tequila-shots-run-dmc-2019-9 According to The Journal, during an all-hands meeting at WeWork's New York City headquarters, Neumann described those layoffs as necessary to cut costs. Moments later, employees at the meeting were served shots of tequila — there were toasts and more drinks, and the evening ended with a performance by Darryl McDaniels of Run-DMC. Don Julio 1942 tequila costing more than $100 per bottle? SD

We f##ked! SD

All of this really drives home the point. Few are of a doubt that it’s a good long-term business, but net of discounted future cashflow; it’s very volatile in todays environment. In the short-term you are trading volatility, in the long-term you effectively own an essential business. This example is wind turbines. It could just as easily be electric cars, or the space industry. You are planting saplings in waste land; your kids benefit, not you. There are many easier ways of doing the same thing – simply buy a ‘widows and orphans’ stock, and never sell. The continuously growing dividend will serve you well, and leave your capital for the kids. Different strokes for different folks. SD

Producing Wind turbines is a mediocre business at best. I looked at Vestas a while ago and didn’t see a reason to get exited. Agreed - but everything in the wind farm business is mediocre. Per public markets, the choices are either the utilities using them - or the turbine makers themselves. Different types of business. Turbines pollute (noise, aesthetics, etc). Viable locations are limited, and damage suits are working through the system. Hence utilities have a long tail risk, that must be included. Turbine makers not so much. Turbines are two businesses. Once/done construction, and erection/decommission + repair/maintenance. When the industry is growing the money's in construction, when its mature it's in servicing. Break everything down into flat-packs, and ship by the thousands to extract economies of scale. Asia (& therefore Asian manufacturers) has a material advantage. Easier to override public objections, cleaner air/water quicker - by leapfrogging o/g and coal as a fuel source, and lots of sparsely populated windblown desert/plains to put them in. For every 1 'western' turbine, maybe 2-3 Asian turbines are being installed. And not just in Asia. The problem is time to market development. These are FUTURE cash flows - that must be discounted at a high rate to reflect the uncertainties. Current NPV is negative to marginal - at best. Hence the industry subsidization. You don't get rich, your kids do. SD

Look at Vespas, the leading maker of wind turbines ;) Copenhagen Stock Exchange SD

There has to be a sizeable part of the market that is being frozen out of the market, and word is leaking out. The repeated and growing daily intervention; would seem to suggest that the Feds initial 50B injection is having to be rolled, AND that they are having to roll additional maturities as well. Creditors are taking their money out. The last time we saw something like this was when the major I-banks collapsed. Big numbers, and big impacts that further magnified based on degree of market connectedness. This smells like DSIB/GSIBs. Brexit is coming up in 41 days, and a hard crash is looking more and more certain. Are global overnight funding flows getting distorted as the Oct-31 date gets closer? SD

Yield curves have inverted, and suddenly the overnight rate goes to 10% on material volume? To 5.5x the long-term rate (or more, if the Fed were not intervening!) It wasn't a glitch, and nobody knows (not guess) the cause? At the basic level ... 50B+ of debt couldn't roll, because borrowers continually saw no-bid, even as they were continuosly raising their offers. That doesn't happen, unless you're in an extremely toxic environment. Maybe because those whose notes were maturing, deliberately chose not to buy new notes? and if so, why? SD

if the current business doesn't work, they can always diversify into weed to achieve their mission :D WeHigh? Dial A Bud - coming to a location near you! https://weedmaps.com/deliveries/dial-a-bud With soon to be added weed infused Vape Juice - as the healthy lungs alternative!! https://vapesinthehood.com/make-thc-vape-juice/ SD

This is the NORM, not the exception; and it exists to be used - not shut down. The vast majority of stock market participants are not 'investing' - they are gambling. Buy high, sell higher, and do whatever you can to keep the bubble going. The industry makes far more money via 'churn' (commissions, fees, underwriting, credit rating, analysts/social media, etc) - than could ever be made through 'buy and hold'. For the most part, HFT and proprietal trading is just zero-sum gaming. In any given quarter a firm could be up/down quite a bit, but over MANY, MANY quarters? it tends to wash out. The sales benefit is higher market volatilty, and conditional liquidity, promoting higher 'churn'. And all sales people will make a lot more money in a 'hot' market. Play the 'game', the way 'industry' does (gorilla in the room); and you will lose. But play the game differently, and it is industry that loses (Gladwell, 'David and Goliath'). Lots of opportunities. Bubble investors only 'look' wealthy. The reality of course is that if they can't reliably dump their sh1t onto a patsy at a higher price, they're bankrupt. To ensure that they can; they engage the industry to sell the bubble, and its handmaidens to sell the individual deals. Add enough 'Benjamins', and you can obscure most anything. Smart approach. However, all bubbles eventually burst .... Industry's loss becomes your gain, everybody is fire selling everything, and you've the one with the cash. 50c on the offer, for a quick all cash sale; take it or leave it. You only need 1-2 of these in a lifetime, and you're essentially set for life. SD

It would seem that if your name appears on the list ... you've failed. You've been leaving too many breadcrumbs on your trail, and become traceable! SD

Not to put ideas in peoples heads :) ...... The short-term money in WeWork/Uber/SoftBank can only be made if the WeWork IPO goes through. To short any of these you need a material event to sell into, and IDEALLY - option/share-lend/repo markets to offset the risks against. Give up a 1B+ on the WeWork IPO, and make back double+ on the risk offsets ..... SD

How do they cancel the shares? Telling the SEC stating that they won't be selling it to anyone? Share count is reduced, and there a note disclosure in the next financial statement Where do the outside get the info on the buyback (number of shares and the purchase price)? Is it in the audited quarterly report? You don't. The note disclosure in the next financial statement will just speak to the total quantity bought, the total $ paid, and the price range of the purchases. See the above in italics SD

The company does the buyback because it currently has no internal opportunities that could earn more. The buyback is to avoid paying a dividend. Avoid having to come up with the same amount every quarter, and creating expectations. The bought shares could be cancellled. Increases EPS by reducing the share count, and makes debt numbers worse by reducing equity. The shares could be held as treasury. Reduces/eliminates share dilution from share based compensation. Does not affect equity. Short-term investors prefer large buybacks and share cancellation. Puts a floor under prices (may even elevate them), raises EPS (higher prices) and ensures bids in size. Investors sell into the bids, and walk-away. Longer-term investors prefer smaller buybacks that are combined with debt repayment, and only net share cancellation (buyback shares-compensation shares) - ratio's remain undisturbed, BS strength improves, and EPS improves. Short and long-term interests are not the same. They are just another tool. SD.

Discouraging predatory lending is like trying to banish clap. We might suppress it for a while, but it is not going away - and over the long term, it adapts to whatever drug is being used. Ultimately it is how much is tolerable. Assume the views on this thread are representative of the population. Simply writing off the debt, or discharging it through a bankruptcy, is clearly not a socially or politically practical approach. There's little objection to a write-off; but it has to be earned in some way. Society paid for it, society should get something for it, and there is a lot of societal need. Hard to argue against. The US has been trying to reconcile civil rights ever since the 60's, and is still trying 60 years later. Students loans are not a lot different. Ultimately, change is limited to the pace at which the oldest generation dies out. Write-offs will eventually occur, but it is going to be a very long 'negotiation'. SD

A good part of this is the FX difference, and otherwise US bound talent staying in Canada instead. The same thing routinely happens in the film and media production house industries. A software engineer in Canada will often only get paid 2/3 to 3/4 of thier US eqjuivalent, and in CAD versus USD. Hence a US engineer costing 100K USD/year, will cost the equivalent of roughly 56K USD/year if he's sourced in Canada (100x.75x1/1.3300). Even if you throw in telecom and 3 face/face visits/year, it's still a lot cheaper. To some extent Canada is also a lot more immigrant friendly. If you're likely to have your kids while working in Canada, they will automatically be dual-national. SD

Anecdotally, we shut down our business office in June, we’re 21 years old and were in that office for about 14 years. Nobody was using the space, more and more of the staff have moved out of Toronto to places like Cambridge, Kitchener, even New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, etc. We’re an internet company, and we do everything online. We were already doing everything virtually, phones, email, video conferencing, project tracking. The savings were substantial and go directly to the bottom line. It was a no-brainer. It turns out we’re not alone and this is becoming more the norm within the industry. I’d be wary of commercial real estate (office rentals), even the temp/space on-demand unicorns like WeWork are fighting an uphill battle I think. In a few years we may buy our own building, but it’ll be a mixed use: office downstairs, with multi-tenant rentals on top. We’ll see. I have had a similar experience with a GTA start-up ... The traditional reason for partners buying the real-estate the office is in, is because it's the partners pension plan. The business continues to pay rent every month, but after 20 years the partners real-estate is owned outright. We also found that we were primarily an internet company that was essentially outsourcing everything. Generally, partners/staff were having a face/face meeting once/week at best, the rest of the time it was mostly Skype/Phone. When we did the numbers; continuing with the combined cost of telecom+temp space-on-demand+lunches - came in at well under the costs of a permanent 'office'. Lower break-evens, and tax deductability, were also material 'additional' considerations. Amongst our takeaways; was the realization that to rent space (DT Toronto/GTA hubs) efficiently - all the renters in that location, had to have a similar need (place to bring clients) - and be actually using the space for that purpose. As rent is a fixed cost, and 'usage' doesn't show up as a variance each month, there was no incentive to manage it. Make usage semi-variable, and the dynamics change quite a bit. If you're a large company, a permanent office space is pretty much expected; but if you're a small/medium company, space-on-demand is becoming increasingly the norm. A 'common-use' lounge, a room of your own, and a 'conference' room bookable as needed. It's also the office set-up 'of choice' for a growing number of junior staff. SD

Do not argue with a fool because he will drag you down to his level and then beat you with experience. Be careful of the man who stays calm and smiles in a crisis for he has already found someone to put the fault on ;) SD

Per the UK's 'Time Team' program; after having dug to a depth of 10 feet in the UK last year.... "British scientists found traces of copper wire dating back 200 years and came to the conclusion that their ancestors already had a telephone network more than 150 years ago." Not to be outdone by the Brits, in the weeks that followed, a team of American archaeologists dug to a depth of 20 feet in the US, and shortly after, a story was published in the New York bulletin: "American archaeologists, finding traces of 250-year-old copper wire, have concluded that their ancestors already had an advanced high-tech communications network 50 years earlier than the British". One week later, the Herald newspaper in Harare, Zimbabwe; reported the following ... "After digging as deep as 30 feet in his backyard, Manius Dube a self-taught archaeologist, reported that he found absolutely nothing. Manius has therefore concluded that more than 250 years ago - Africa had already gone wireless!" Reality is all in the eyes of the believer. SD

The reality is that the US is not an island, it has to deal with the rest of the world - whether it wants to or not. Every time China/US make something for trade, they use in part - the resources of other countries; components, oil, labour, etc. Reducing the volume of trade (via tariffs) between these two countries, also reduces the volumes for everyone else - tipping the globe into recession. Today we have SDR's, which are quite capable of settling capital flows between nations, and have long been touted as a solution. We now also have the technology to make these transactions both visible to all (within the private network), and tamper proof. Joint develpment, as a face saving escape for all warring parties, has to be on the table at some point. Agreed this is market disruption, it will outlive Trump, and it is going to be bruising. A very good thing in the long-run .... just not so much in the short, or medium term ('cause we could all end up dead!). In the meantime, all we can do is flow with the river .. and position ourselves accordingly. SD

"As for whether limiting capital inflows will drive up interest rates, that is easy to test. Just look at the relationship between US interest rates and the US current account deficit. If you believe reduced capital inflows should raise interest rates, then you would expect that higher current account deficits are always associated with lower interest rates." .... If you need to roll a 1B treasury issue at maturity, and you only have bids on the table for 600M - you have to raise the yield enough to attract another 400M; that's just the way auctions work. If you have net capital outflow, you just have to raise the yield even further; 'cause you're the 'ugly' at this ball (as per your net capital outflow) - and I need a lot more 'benjamins' to 'hide' your imperfections! Hence, its hard to see how rates do NOT go up. ... Every country also believes that reserve currency status (regional or global) lasts 'forever', until they find out it doesn't. More recent examples have been the UK pound, and the gold standard. Additionally, the penalty for reserve status is the 'Triffen Dilemma' which seems to have been conveniently forgotten. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency We live in interesting times. SD

All credit to the Carnegie Institute, but where's the piece on the capital outflow? If I'm a foreign (China) capital contributor and getting taxed on new US investments, why can't I .... 1) Simply route my US investment through a 3rd country? (invest the capital in a UK/German company; that in turn, makes the US investment). A very old smugglers trick, that apparently wasn't considered by the Carnegie Institute. 2) Just let my US treasuries mature and move the capital to some 'Other' country (not China)? US rates rise, as the US now has to 'crowd ' the market to raise enough to roll my maturing bills, and the US/Other 'FX' rate distorts as I sell US and buy Other. 3) But if the 3rd country, and 'Other', are the same country .... there will be minimally affect on the US/Other FX rate (ie: not a trade manipulator), but US rates WILL increase. I can plausibly claim, and prove, that I'm not a currency manipulator - the US is ;D Of course I may very well be a currency manipulator, but I'm just better at it than the US is ! In todays age of crypto currency, there are a number of far better ways of handling capital transfers between nations. If the US is going to impose a tax on US capital inflows, there is little reason for a non-US oil exporter to price oil in USD, and pay tax on petrodollar recycling. The exporter simply prices in SDR's, Euro, or Yuan/Renminbi instead; and devalues USD by reducing demand for it. It would appear that the end-game is devaluation of USD .... Nothing wrong in that - but there are a lot smarter ways of doing it. SD

The reality of course is that the 2 largest economies need each other. China needs the US to buy their goods, and the US needs China to finance its deficit. However, just as in a bar fight, there comes a point when the smartest thing is to just let them slug it out - until only one is left standing. Most would think that per the pending election, if this continues, it will be the Republicans/Trump leaving the ring. In the meantime ... let the trading gifts continue. Per those 100 year bonds, we need the market YTM driven to zero. Cut that fed rate baby, cut! SD

You might find Gladwell's: "David and Goliath" an interesting short read; as about a quarter of the book covers the fact that the money versus effectiveness of education plots out as an inverted U-Curve. If you start with nothing (the illiterate) - throwing money at education (more schools, teachers, etc) will improve effectiveness. But it's a diminishing return ... continue to throw money at education, and the net benefit sinks to zero, and then becomes seriously toxic. https://www.amazon.com/David-Goliath-Underdogs-Misfits-Battling/dp/0316204374 It has long been recognized that throwing money at the best students in an impoverished neighborhood, via an extended 'full-ride' scholarship to an Oxford, is the most effective way of 'educating' - but sadly it's not scalable. There are only so many people in an impoverished neighborhood that will beat the odds; to qualify for a Rhodes/Beit Scholarship AND graduate - despite the 'pressure of expectation'. But those that do .... are the truly exceptional, that really do change the world. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-oxford-bound-meet-four-of-canadas-latest-rhodes-scholars/ To many, the issue with education is that little Johnny/Suzie cannot seem to APPLY what they have learned. Johnny/Suzie come out as intelligent idiots - sure they've learnt something valuable, but no idea 'how to' build the algos applying what they know. It is a large part why trade or co-op or 'night-school' courses are often preferred - as 'application' is favored over theory. Sadly, it has now gone on for so long, that many now question the value of education at all; ignorance and exploitation is preferable. SD