SharperDingaan

Look primarily at piece of mind vs cost, primary TD and RBC. Sh1te hits the fan in Canada ... one really needs to be with the biggest 2 of the 5 chartered banks, and backstopped by the BoC. Both are about as bad as each other, but if transaction costs are going to be the only factor deciding it .... one really needs to walk away. For better service, look local to trade local; a US resident gets much better protections/service than a Canadian/European trading in the US .... similar story in Europe. Do enough volume that it matters ... look into dual nationality. SD

Three things learnt along the way ..... (1) House needs change as life changes ... kids arriving/departing, retirement, etc. Buy the future house (a decade out) today, as a fit for purchase new build, and rent it out - while living mortgage free in the existing one. Highest quality upgrades at the time of build, include the landscaping, build a fund to re-roof, re-window, replace the carpet, replace the HVAC/ appliances, update the kitchen, and repaint when you move in. Tomorrows otherwise unaffordable custom built house, often bought today at 50c in the dollar, or less (2) On inception of the 25yr mortgage, calculate the duration, and use it as the target retirement date. If you can use savings, stock/bond market gains, etc. to pay off the remaining principal on the target date ... you have essentially hedged your interest rate risk. Inflation will also have built a good chunk of your equity gain; market and neighbourhood improvements are bonus. (3) Pay up for the best Postal Code, as the houses are luxury goods, prices will change with the global economy, and many will be beneficiaries of money laundering. That corporately owned house is often a sweetheart offshore sale and leaseback at an intentionally higher price ... so help yourself, but recognise that you're really trading liquidity. Today's cash rich sheikh may well be tomorrow's cash poor bum ..... in need of a cheap quick sale SD

A house isn't just mortgage and maintenance (roof/siding/windows/HVAC/appliances, etc); it is also property tax/condo fees, insurance, utilities, internet, furniture and carpet replacement, psychology, etc. You either pay the cash cost to the landlord as part of the monthly rent, or pay it out of pocket as it occurs. The owner knows there will be ongoing house costs (depreciation), but not how much, or when it will occur; and that there is a need to set funds asides for these future costs every month. Those with financial discipline apply the funds against a HELOC balance every month; the funds remaining available, along with an interest saving, every month. There is also recognition that if the house is to remain marketable, and command a higher price when sold; there will need to be periodic material renovations, and that a significant portion of the spend will return when the house is sold. Stress free living, and ability to enjoy the renovation upgrades. The house is also an asset that rises with inflation, financed with debt that devalues with inflation; the banker charging the borrower interest at inflation plus a spread. As long as you can pay the interest on your mortgage .... inflation is your friend, and the higher the better! Thing is ... this isn't most people. Most will buy too much house, too early, and pay too much for it .... leaving barely enough cash to pay the mortgage, everything else hand to mouth, pray you can flip the place at a higher price, pray that nothing breaks, and run the asset into the ground. Lacking discipline, renting is often the better option .... Not popular either! SD

Don't count the house/mortgage as you are only a 50% owner; it isn't your call to make. If the spouse is agreeable you might do a Smith Maneuver (Canadian thing that makes interest tax deductible), but otherwise treat it as a pension. Pay into it for years until the mortgage is done, thereafter your monthly pension is mortgage/rent free accommodation until you eventually move into an old folks home. You may be a great investor but you have to survive the ups and downs first. A lot less risk involved when you know you will still have a roof over your heads should you screw up. SD

No big deal, to each his own. We're just with Fat Tony, greed doesn't need to solve anything .... it just has to make the right people richer. SD

Think a debt restructuring, pushing out BTC backed debt; long been an expectation for quite some time. Think a BTC/Gold standard at X:1. BTC backed debt exchangeable into either BTC or gold. Think seigniorage as the funds raiser, the lower BTC is, the less required. https://ca.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E210CA1494G0&p=seigniorage Greed works. SD

Imagine a CB that would like to use a BTC backed debt instrument ... not too many places you can get this much BTC all at once. The CB receiver not actually selling the BTC, but reducing their beneficial interest via encumbrance; challenged gold reserves pushing towards a BTC/Gold substitution at some peg. Fat Tony would hold a lot of out-of-the-money puts, let the liquidation talk drive down price, collect on the puts and load up on calls. Pressure the crypto eco-system nodes for concessions, do a little IPO packaging, and announce a CB purchase. Everybody hails the chief, supports the IPO (to get their concessions back), and BTC climbs to a year-end high. Both the market, and the mafiosi, do very well We just find that 'Greed Works' (Wall Street) is more reliable than 'In God We Trust'. To make real money, BTC needs to convincingly fall through the USD 100K level .. stay there for a while, and be followed by a series of tweets. When incentives are aligned; the now absence of press scrutiny, is just a bonus. Coat-tail at your own risk. SD

A little quantification ..... https://www.worldcoinindex.com/news/mt-gox-wallets-stir-ahead-of-october-31-deadline-as-3-8b-bitcoin-repayment-looms Analysts warn that the market’s ability to absorb such a large amount [3.8 Billion] is uncertain, especially given weaker institutional demand. “Last year, around 80% of the German government’s Bitcoin liquidation went through OTC channels like Coinbase Prime,” one market observer noted. “That kind of deep liquidity isn’t as strong right now.” The timing and nature of the latest Mt. Gox wallet movements have raised eyebrows. In past repayment phases, the trustee conducted small test transfers before large-scale distributions — a pattern that appears to be repeating. “After seven months, we’re seeing the same kind of wallet pings as before previous payouts,” said one blockchain researcher. “It’s not confirmed that repayments are imminent, but the coincidence is too strong to ignore.” As Bitcoin markets continue to trade under macro uncertainty and thinning liquidity, any significant Mt. Gox-driven release could add fuel to an already jittery environment. Whether the trustee opts for another delay or proceeds with repayments, October 31 now marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Have to think that the best outcome is a direct transfer into a CB treasury, followed by a slow bleed out into various MicroStrategy 2.0's across the world; all of which requires liquidity. Liquidity drains, the cost goes up, BTC falls, and gravity takes over .... SD

First ripples have begun to lap .... market liquidity has begun draining, BTC hasn't been able to hold its price levels, Mt Gox is coming up on its distribution, stresses are piling up. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-market-futures-us-regional-banks-9.6942130 "Pockets of the U.S. banking sector including regional banks have given the market cause for concern," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. "What we see in the banks selling off overnight in the U.S., Asia wakes up to it, Europe wakes up to it and so it spreads," said TD Securities head of global macro strategy James Rossiter. "Despite growing hopes of further rate cuts this year, attention is turning to the underlying health of the economy, as emerging credit losses amongst America's regional banks raised further questions about lending practices," said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown. Analysts say that any cracks in credit on Wall Street are likely to spill over into other areas of the financial sector. Even more so, after Q32025 earnings report highlighting tariff impacts. Earlier this week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said this about credit markets: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more, and so everyone should be forewarned." SD

Just a bump .... SD

To quote SaintsAndHeathens.com “Soccer is a gentleman’s game played by thugs. Rugby league is a thug’s game played by thugs. Rugby Union is a thug’s game played by gentlemen.” Though I'm kind of partial to the Oscar Wilde quote “Rugby is a good occasion for keeping thirty bullies far from the centre of the city” and Orwell's apt description “Serious sport has nothing to do with fair play. It is bound up with hatred, jealousy, boastfulness, disregard of all rules and sadistic pleasure in witnessing violence: in other words it is war minus the shooting.” Well there are only 2 teams in the world, and they are both from the southern hemisphere, the other guys are just practice SD

There's always room for another sh1te disturber! and the more of them ..... the better balanced the discussion Taleb's 'Skin In The Game' is a refreshing read every now and again, and we could all do with a lot more of Fat Tony and beers with the boys Orange Boy has his fans, but the drunk and the felon aren't going to be able to shut the press out .... roaches are just too hard to kill. Leaks happen, midterms are coming up, and there ain't a lot of love lost. FIFA calls Orange Boys bluff and moves the world cup games entirely out of the US ..... Orange Boy doesn't get the Noble Peace Prize ..... whispers, ostracism, and thin skin don't go well. Tradeable SD

Have to think that it is only a matter of time until BTC is back around the USD 90-100K mark again Q3 2025 earnings are not going to be good, and liquidity will be draining from the crypto eco-structure to meet demands elsewhere. SD

Per the new China tariff; quite the market sell-off is expected on the next open - DJ down 1,100 points per the current futures market (2025-10-11, 10:30 AM EST). Have to think there is a good chance of the sell off being materially more once the Q32025 reporting season is over. With peace now in Gaza; WTI futures are now < USD 60.00 all the way out for the next 2 years+ to Jan-08; expect a stampede of gift horses over the coming year end tax season Have to think that there is a good possibility that the tariffs drive WTI into the USD 55.00 range for a time, before it gets better. https://oilprice.com/futures/wti/ While swing trades are often maligned, the reality is that they are a material part of an active buy and hold. A value investor is always buying sh1te (at a liquidity discount), to sell later on an emerging story. No different to garden composting; sh1te in at the top, compost out the bottom, and the more stink the better! GLTA SD

Oil prices will rise if the USD depreciates (continued pricing in USD), and if demand outstrips supply (unlikely over time). Absent a US national defence response (jets cant fly when there is no gas); most would expect that the market supply/demand price will also be constrained as China both replaces diminishing OPEC+ supply (may even become a OPEC+ member), and increasingly becomes refiner to the world. $100 WTI is probably the limit, and mostly via USD depreciation. Different for heavy oil. Also a lot of it, but Iranian/Venezuelan supply is not reliable, even if China were to take over operations via 'belt and road' initiatives. For reliability purposes, a US/Chinese refiner really needs a healthy supply of Canadian heavy, hence the new pipe. Should peace continue to break out, war premiums will also dissipate and even $60 WTI will be hard to maintain. SD

The reality is that a lot of the 600-800 ft 'investor' condo's were bought with family help. Were little Johnnie/Suzy to sell they would be wiped out, along with their families ability to help them; and will very likely never be able to return to the market at some future date. So Johnnie/Suzy stay put, and the whole family ponies up the monthly cash flow shortfall every month. They continue to have a place to live, work second jobs, and over time family inheritances/gifts help pay down the mortgage. It takes time, but they eventually recover, and there is no sale. No different to the value investor who makes a material investment in X, and refuses to sell when it drops 40% the next day and stays there forever; preferring to 'double down' and 'wait it out', versus take the loss and move on. However, unlike a stock, this is an investment that you can actually live in. Of course, GTA condo prices are going to fall quite a bit, but sadly not as much as might have been hoped; the 35% drop from peak versus the 50% drop, and only in condo towers where sales are infrequent. SD

Within Ontario, within academia, there are permanent mass layoffs everywhere. The ivory tower isn't good at change, virtually all academic institutions are operating deep in the red, and most have cut entire programs along with all associated staff; tenured or otherwise. Most of the losses resulting from material reductions in the number of international student visas, who were essentially paying the bills. At some institutions, 50%+ of all previous programs are now gone, and remaining management is well out over their skis. Many have won the lottery, but are too shell shocked to realise it; very generous severance packages, employment insurance, benefit enhancements, and pension upgrades .. within 2-3 years of planned retirement. Lot of others will also materially benefit long-term from the push out of academia, but at present it is still too raw. There are short term contract opportunities associated with transition, but it is not a happy place to work. Very different in the craft beer biz. While a lot of brewers will go out of biz in this cycle, everyone is already very lean, geographically spread out, and most staff can also do different things. Lot are also doing side hustles brewing small batches for local bars, using the minimum of equipment bought out of bankruptcy at cents on the dollar, and working with other craft brewers in barter arrangements to essentially keg, &/or obtain can/material at cost. Different strokes. Great place to work, and quite a few of those who had to be downsized come back on gig work (kegging, loading pallets, etc.) to supplement income. The brewer typically throwing in a free pizza/sandwich lunch and a take-home six pack, when there are many involved and its a weekend. Community outreach beginning at home first. SD

A week from now there will either be a deal, or there will not be. Today the story line is that there will be a deal within a week, but if there is still no deal a week from now ... it will be quite different. Bond holders don't have to immediately roll over maturing debt; and it is very simple to squeeze a few extra bp by demanding payment on maturity, temporarily parking the cash outside the US, and buying back later at the better yield. Terrible thing to waste the opportunity SD

So with the government shutdown, effective today .... the US military ain't getting paid; with the national guard on the streets, how long do you think that's really going to last? In an Oct. 7, 2013, interview with then-Fox News host Greta Van Susteren, Trump criticized Obama for not being a dealmaker during the shutdown. https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/donald-trump-has-advice-for-president-obama-about-the-art-of-the-deal "You have to get everybody in a room. You have to be a leader. The president has to lead. He has to get (the Speaker of the House) and everybody else in a room, and they have to make a deal. You have to be nice and be angry and be wild and cajole and do all sorts of things, but you have to get a deal." All that anger, wildness, and cajoling ? .... Orange Boy needs a deal, October bond issuance will be at higher rates to compensate for the uncertainty, and it's quite the opportunity!. Sure one can use the opportunity to fire everybody, but it'll cost a lot more in interest and the mid term election. Volatility is your friend! SD

The basic gist of these examples is ..... (1) Conflicts of interest are routine; so long as the economic result is no net harm, there is no foul. (2) There is no conflict of interest as long as the conflict is disclosed; whether that be as a high-level 'mention', or as a granular disclosure. (3) 'Potential' means what if the conflict were gas lighted? would 'mom' be OK with it? The examples demonstrate that disclosure can be made either before or after the gas lighting occurs. Lawyers/companies will of course 'game' net harm. The more cheap nuclear power I use the more I benefit, but if it results in a nuclear disaster ... as one of many taxpayers of XYZ country, I only pay a very small portion of the total cleanup cost. I get a clear net benefit, taxpayers a net loss ..... and the national net harm is zero. Bullies/sociopaths will of course 'intimidate' via threats to gas light a conflict of interest; typically a cost vs benefit determination, resolved via asymptotic cost escalation. Friends advise there is no negotiation with sociopaths; broken bones, and sleeps with the fishes, are much more effective (and cheaper) than protracted law-fare. The judge just recognises that 'madame justice' has limited influence, and that some situations are better resolved the old fashioned way. Enron as an example. Arguably, Ken Lay (Enron CEO) intentionally broke all kinds of laws to inflate the share price, and pressured his people to 'bend' rules (sociopath behaviour), as he knew that he would be dead from cancer before he ever faced justice. Jeffrey Skilling (Enron CFO) eventually let a quarter's DD go, and went to jail as the fall guy. Had Lay gone for a swim, there may well have been a much more equitable outcome. Substitute Trump for Lay; similar behaviour, and the man will be senile before he ever faces potential prosecutions on anything he does today. SD

There is a reason why BTC/BTC-ETF is often cited as the preferred vehicle for this. You have inflation protection, anonymity, security, AND ability to easily move your wealth anywhere without currency restrictions. It's just not what many want to hear SD

The judge is just being pragmatic; two examples; 1) Company XYZ installs a highly regulated (risk mitigation) state-of-the-art small modular nuclear reactor near a major oil reserve. The power generated sold to the local industry at full cost + a small regulated return to its investors (primarily pension funds), electricity use favoured over gas so as to reduce CO2 emissions, high level risk disclosure, everything kumbaya. Thing is ... were the risk of a Chernobyl/Fukushima incident not self insured by the provincial/federal governments, the insurance cost would be so high that the electricity would be uneconomic, we would all use cheaper (more polluting) coal/gas, and all would be significantly worse off. The potential conflict of interest (publicly funded radioactive clean-up), implied as very low risk, effectively no harm no foul ... 2) It's election time; the wise lad bribes (political donations) both sides equally - post election 'rewards', no matter who wins. Potential conflict of interest were it subsequently publicly reported that you received favours for monies given; the 'out' is public demonstration that you cheerfully gave the same to both sides, effectively no harm no foul, no actual conflict of interest. Assuming both sides allow your continued breathing One example from the light side, one from the dark, no real difference. Everyday practice, all over the world. SD

AI is a hell of a tool, but it's all about application. However, to most folks it's simply a speculative coding stack looking for a potential problem, and NOT the coding solution to a vision outlined in a list of specifications. Of course if the master can't lead, articulate the vision, or work with the coders .... SD

It has been 50+ years since the 1960's; 'value investing' methodology/approach has just evolved with the times. Back in the day the focus was much more on just getting the data/simple analytics, and much less on applied use of the findings. You did well because it was simple to do, but hard to execute; so not many competitors. Different thing today when we can teach data extraction/use of formula to a monkey ... the applied stuff not so much! If all you can do is get/crunch numbers, to spit out content/graphics ... you add minimal value, as AI can do it a lot faster, cheaper, and more reliably than you can. Your value is in using AI to do the grunt work, applying findings via client story telling pitches (people skills), and/or coding decision algorithms into autonomous bots (creativity) that trade for you - 24/7. Do well ... and you work only for you, not someone else. Same approach, just executed very differently. SD

You might want to use current conditions to lighten up .... one can always buy back in later. All the persistent Russian refinery hits, and WTI can barely hold USD 65/bbl? Fewer/no further hits as part of 'negotiations' always a possibility ... what do think happens to WTI if it actually occurs? Supposedly Exxon gets their 30% of Sakhalin-1 back, and Russian can access o/g tech again; if they agree to peace in the Ukraine. Orange Boy wants the Nobel Peace Prize, and time is running out ... what do think happens to WTI if there is an actual agreement? What do think happens should any of this also occur in time for tax loss selling season? SD