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CafeB

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    what are you selling today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CafeB
    BLL

    Majority of AMBP. Selling what was bought late Dec. / early Jan. at slightly lower prices in a market that now seems far less sanguine. Admittedly an attempt at market timing.

     

    Can only speculate that its last week's high related to BLL earnings 1/27.

    The Mentors: Nomad Letters Quotes

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks for sharing your notes, @Dave86ch

     

    Comment on Nomad investor letters in recent Greenhaven Road investor letter:

     

    "If we can find the right combination of reasonable price and the ability to sustain growth, we can do quite well over time, even with multiple compression.

     

    The “over time” part of the last sentence is important. For the last four years, my work bag has held a bound copy of the investor letters for Nomad, a simultaneously storied and under-the-radar investment partnership run by Nick Sleep and Qais Zakaria from 2001-2013. These letters were gifted to me in a shroud of secrecy. I was to tell nobody I had them and show nobody their contents, just study them. About a year ago, the letters were published online by Nick Sleep’s charitable foundation (link), so I was released from my vow of silence. I have never met Nick Sleep, but from everything I can tell, he managed their partnership in the right way, attracting philosophically-aligned limited partners and generating very attractive risk-adjusted returns. I occasionally daydream that investing would be so easy if I had had those letters in real time. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, we know the returns are excellent. Buy, hold, and ring the register. It would have been so easy just to copy Nomad… or would it have been?

     

    One of Nomad’s largest investments was Costco (COST), whose share price is up more than 11X from their thesis write-up published in Value Investor Insight (link) back in 2005. If you had reinvested your $50+ in dividends along the way, you would have done even better. But here is the rub: if you bought at the date of publication, you would have lost money at the end of the first four years. It was not a straight line up. The returns came in chunks, over time." (emphasis in original)

     

    www.greenhavenroad.com/investor-letters

    Today's 52-week lows (those of interest on any given day)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2/4/22:

     

    ENR - Energizer -- earnings Monday, 2/7

     

    FARM - Farmer Bros. -- national coffee roaster, wholesaler and distributor of coffee, tea and culinary products -- "Our second fiscal quarter marked the sixth quarter of sequential improvement in our DSD sales, and we ended the quarter with average weekly DSD sales down 17% compared to pre-COVID levels, representing improvement from down 25% in the prior period and down 40% from one year ago."

     

    FTV - Fortive

     

    GFF - Griffon -- activist investor presentation: www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/voss-capital-issues-detailed-investor-presentation-on-griffon-corp-301465833.html

     

    LII - Lennox -- TT/Trane also down after earnings, ~10% above its low -- CARR/Carrier earnings Tuesday, 2/8

     

    MLR - Miller Industries -- towing and recovery equipment

     

    MNRO - Monro (formerly Monro Muffler Brake)

     

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CafeB

    3 hours ago, perulv said:

    if everyone has put in huge orders to these suppliers (that seem to all be dropping in price now), and at some point all these orders are filled, everyone suddenly has all the <whatever the suppliers produce>, and the demand drops?

     

    Offset in part by services for larger installed base?

    Companies classified in industries that are not representative

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    J - Jacobs (formerly JEC - Jacobs Engineering)

     

    --significantly changed its portfolio, including sale of Energy, Chemicals, and Resources business

     

    --rebranded accordingly "from an engineering and construction company to a global technology-driven solutions company"

     

    invest.jacobs.com/investors/Press-Release-Details/2019/Jacobs-Announces-New-NYSE-Stock-Ticker-Symbol-Launching-New-Global-Brand-That-Reflects-Transformation/default.aspx

    Defense contractors

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CafeB
    re: Jacobs

    Really appreciate your comments on services companies, @Spekulatius

     

    Would appreciate if you would be willing to elaborate briefly, by way of orientation:

     

    --your comment on preference for SAIC over LDOS

     

    --your comment on possible preference for CACI over SAIC

     

    --any thoughts on BAH?

     

    --any thoughts on switching costs? Although services not as capital-intensive as products, winning product platforms are produced and sustained for multiple generations in some cases--to the extreme that Congress buys what the Pentagon no longer wants. Assuming the industry as a whole benefits for many years to come as a member of the military-industrial complex, what factors limit competition among the companies, including on price? (I note comment in 2020 VIC write-up that "SAIC collaborates with competitors to bid on large contracts" sometimes.) How might a layman evaluate claims about proprietary technologies?

     

    As an aside, recall casually following KEYW for a while from its 2010 IPO. I see now that it was acquired in 2019 by Jacobs, which appears to have significantly changed its portfolio of businesses to the extent that E&C industry classification is partial mischaracterization. I don't know if it might be of interest.

     

    Thank you very much

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    19 hours ago, KPO said:

    At initial glance this looks like an income producing value play with aligned management in a decently boring business. Any catalysts? Do you mind sharing more? Thanks for the idea. 

     

    Thanks for your kind reply. I will plan to start a new topic on it

    Today's 52-week lows (those of interest on any given day)

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CafeB
    To add WGO

    1/20/22:

     

    --THO - Thor Industries -- RVs -- also WGO - Winnebago ~6% above its low

     

    --SONO - Sonos -- featured in recent Greenlight Capital investor letter:

     

    "We’ve owned SONO, which manufactures multi-room wireless smart home sound systems, for about a year. We were initially attracted by the strength of the brand and IP, SONO’s ecosystem dynamics, and signs that the company was under-earning. We’ve been impressed with management’s ability to consistently outperform both guidance and expectations amidst a rapidly changing macro environment. We think that there is a long-term household penetration story here: SONO products are currently in approximately 11 million homes globally, a number that has grown by at least 20% in each of the last 4 years and stands to grow further as SONO adds more accessible price points, expands into new verticals, and introduces new products and services. While we acknowledge that there are near-term headwinds in the form of supply chain disruptions and a cyclical normalization in consumer electronics demand, we think these will prove to be temporary distractions in an otherwise bright growth story. Between an elevated backlog of orders that will support demand well into the next year and strong pricing power, we see earnings growing close to 25% annually for the next few years. The stock currently trades at just over 15x FY2021 adjusted earnings net of the $5 cash per share on the balance sheet today. We purchased our stake at an average price of $28.45 per share. SONO shares ended the quarter at $32.36."

     

    valuewalk.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Qlet2021-03-3-1-1.pdf

    Stocks lost to acquisition

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, james22 said:

    OAK, but owned BAM at the time (still do) so didn't really matter.

     

    Less regrettable than confirmed my BAM position, actually.

     

    So disregard.

     

    That's a great example. I think considering "losing" a stock can, as you say, go some way to confirming or disconfirming one's long-term interest in the position.

     

    As an ATVI shareholder I did not anticipate the regret with which I would respond to yesterday's announcement--and although MSFT is obviously a much larger business with multiple major drivers, I am now more interested in it as the acquirer of those assets.

    Stocks lost to acquisition

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

    This could end up being a long list, no? 

     

    Yes, I was not as clear as I might have been. The focus of the topic was to be acquisitions recalled as regrettable when announced--for the loss of the opportunity to continue to invest directly.

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