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CafeB

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    Tax-loss selling candidates

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CafeB
    To add % from 52-week high

    ATVI: -32% YTD / -33% over 6 mo. / -41% from 52-week high ... feeling ESG heat ... will bad press for bad behavior affect player engagement? ... if there is such a thing as a metaverse, are the mechanics of video games likely to be part of it?

     

    FIS: -23% YTD / -25% over 6 mo. / -31% from 52-week high

     

    MRCY: -40% YTD / -24% over 6 mo. / -43% from 52-week high ... built by acquisition, now in need of integration/"transformation"

     

    Health Care

    GRFS: -41% YTD / -37% over 6 mo. / -46% from 52-week high

    MDT: -13% YTD / -18% over 6 mo. / -26% from 52-week high ... recent regulatory concerns ... per Barron's Roundtable in July, with stock price ~25% higher than today's: "Because of Covid, many elective surgeries requiring medical devices were postponed in the past year. There will be a step-up in sales of Medtronic products in the coming year."

    PHG: -37% YTD / -31% over 6 mo. / -43% from 52-week high ... voluntary recall and related FDA inspection

     

    "broken IPO"

    DNB (IPO July 2020 at 22): -20% YTD / -7% over 6 mo. / -30% from 52-week high

    DSEY (IPO March 2021 at 15; follow-on November 2021 at 15): -17% YTD / -30% over 6 mo. / -33% from 52-week high

     

    Others of interest?

    Today's 52-week lows (those of interest on any given day)

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CafeB
    To add HEC

    12/16/21:

     

    CTLP - Cantaloupe (formerly USA Technologies) -- vending technology -- recall the name from Artko Capital investor letters -- Hudson Executive Capital 10+% owner and on board

     

    IRBT - iRobot -- Roomba -- per 12/9/21 investor day, shift from hardware to software?

     

    UPLD - Upland -- software roll-up

     

    WWW - Wolverine World Wide --

     

     

    Others of interest?

     

    Preferred stock (using MINDP as an example)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Setting aside Fannie and Freddie and bank preferreds, what factors to consider for preferred stock?

     

    As an example, MIND is unprofitable and has been funding its operations in part by selling preferred stock, MINDP, through ATM programs and a recent underwritten offering.

    MINDP closed at $24.24 on November 8, with ~1.22 million shares outstanding. On November 9, ~0.43 million shares priced at $24.25.

    MINDP pays a cumulative dividend of $2.25 per year. At $18, Friday's close, yield 12.5%; at around $20, as it was for much of the past week, 11.25%.

    The company has no debt.

     

    Damodaran has described preferred stock as "more debt than equity, and very expensive debt at that, since it does not provide a tax deduction." First, what can be inferred from a company's choice of preferred over debt that is cheaper? Second, does the current price and yield indicate that the market will not bear further issuance?

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

    how do you think about FMX valuation?

    The position is really only a placeholder. I am interested in learning more about investing in Mexico and Latin America.

     

    For now I defer to Cook & Bynum [ https://www.cookandbynum.com/wp-content/uploads/Cook-Bynum-03.31.21-Semi-Annual-Report-FINAL.pdf ]: "Using current market prices/values for its Heineken and Coca-Cola FEMSA stakes (which are themselves modestly undervalued), FEMSA’s retail stub currently trades at 9x 2021 enterprise value-to-EBITDA and 16x 2021 enterprise value-to-EBIT. This is an attractive valuation for a retailer that is largely immune from e-commerce and has the potential to grow earnings well into the double digits for the next ten years at high returns on capital."

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    On 11/29/2021 at 7:43 PM, KPO said:

    I also bought FMX several times in March of 2020 and still hold it. I’d be interested in your thesis if you don’t mind sharing. 

    Convenience stores can be good businesses and can be even better in developing markets, to the extent that they have greater "strategic importance" than they would have in developed markets--as elaborated by www.notboring.co/p/femsa .

     

    Strong family ownership provides stewardship in a part of the world that I don't know much about.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by CafeB
    To add note about VIC

    "initial lot" of Kerry Group, as supplement to small positions in Givaudan, IFF, etc. For what it's worth, price now at or below where it was in June before company announced of sale of consumer foods business to focus on "Taste & Nutrition" business.

     

    (Just saw that a VIC write-up dated August 2021 has recently become visible to guests: Value Investors Club / KERRY GROUP PLC (KYGA ID))

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, RedLion said:

     

    I'm certainly no expert, but in previous years I've often found bargains in the tax loss selling bin around the week of Christmas-New Years, there seems to be a combination of low volume and tax loss selling that can cause an extra steep selloff right before year end. Who knows in 2021 though, the markets are crazy. 

    Thank you, RedLion. It makes sense that lower volume might produce opportunity for weakness to intensify.

     

    I should also have noted the potential effects of buybacks over that same period.

     

    On 3Q21 earnings call (11/4), FIS management declared interest in buying back aggressively and described current valuation as a "generational buying opportunity".

     

    There does not appear to be a topic for FIS; I will plan to start a new one in order not to interrupt "What are you buying today?" any further.

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