CafeB
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Posts posted by CafeB
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In response to MSFT announcement this morning, regret that can no longer invest directly in ATVI for another ten years.
Recalls acquisitions of Mentor Graphics by Siemens and Harman by Samsung, both announced in November 2016.
Others that you would put on that list of stocks lost to acquisition?
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If not, is there anything specific about packaging that might have made it unattractive to him, based on his stated preferences, rather than less attractive than other opportunities?
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On 1/2/2022 at 9:29 PM, CafeB said:On 1/2/2022 at 4:20 PM, Spekulatius said:
For economy sensitive plays, I think car/ truck suppliers here are worth a look. They are not great business, and have been hit hard by first COVID-19 and then the semi shortage .
Interesting. Another beneficiary of unconstrained auto production might be upfitters, such as PLOW :
Another beneficiary might be LEG, although auto <20%: 2021 guidance: "Volume expectations changed to mid-single-digit from mid-to-high-single-digit growth primarily from lower volume in Automotive as a result of semiconductor shortages impacting global auto production"
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Please excuse if it is a stupid question.
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1/12/22:
AOUT - American Outdoor Brands -- spin-off from Smith & Wesson completed August 2020
AVO - Mission Produce -- avocados
PHG - Philips -- "Group sales for the quarter are expected to be approximately EUR 4.9 billion, which is around EUR 350 million lower than Philips’ earlier expectations. This is mainly due to intensified global supply chain shortages (primarily related to electronic components and freight capacity), as well as the postponement of customer equipment installations." -- Philips provides update on financial performance Q4 2021 - News | Philips
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On 1/7/2022 at 5:00 PM, CafeB said:
CHWY - Chewy
Per finviz, short interest ~25%
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18 hours ago, Parsad said:
Generally, a 52-week low stock is there for a reason.
Agreed--and the reasons are manifold.
For a company such as CoStar to be on the list of new lows, as it was yesterday, arguably relates to a revaluation rather than to a re-evaluation of its competitive position.
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1/7/22:
TXT - Textron -- Bell, Cessna, etc.
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1/7/22:
CGNX - Cognex -- machine vision
CHWY - Chewy
CSGP - CoStar Group
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6 hours ago, bluedevil said:
Zoom has lost 62%, and Exxon has doubled.
Related chart:
theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/01/06/rules-for-buying-crashing-growth-stocks/
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8 hours ago, BG2008 said:
Common or warrants?
Common. I don't have experience investing in warrants. I would be interested in learning more about them.
5 hours ago, rkbabang said:Are you worried about the price of aluminum going significantly higher?
Good question. Thanks. I've started a new topic for AMBP and included an answer given by management.
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On 12/20/2021 at 12:21 PM, CafeB said:
AMBP -- beverage can pure-play -- significant growth investments with attractive returns
AMBP -- added capacity "fully backed" by multi-year agreements with customers -- mix shift to speciality cans
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On 1/2/2022 at 2:11 PM, CafeB said:
Reviewing Byron Wien's Ten Surprises of 2021:
"7. Even as energy company executives cut estimates for long-term growth, near-term opportunities are increasing. The return to “normal” increases both industrial activity and mobility, and the price of West Texas Intermediate oil rises to $65/bbl. Rig counts increase and energy high yield bonds rally soundly. Energy stocks are among the best performers in 2021."
www.blackstone.com/news/press/byron-wien-and-joe-zidle-announce-the-ten-surprises-of-2021/
2022:
"7. While the major oil-producing countries conclude that high oil prices are speeding up the implementation of alternative energy programs and allowing US shale producers to become profitable again, these countries can’t increase production enough to meet demand. The price of West Texas crude confounds forward curves and analyst forecasts when it rises above $100 per barrel."
www.blackstone.com/news/press/byron-wien-and-joe-zidle-announce-the-ten-surprises-of-2022/
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An article from this past October with an idea for next fall: do some stocks perform too poorly to be suitable tax-loss selling candidate?
"Morgan Stanley identified the tax-loss selling stocks as ones in the S&P 1,500 that fell 10% to 25% from mid-January through September. Those that lost more than 25% weren’t included because they probably will be bought by investors looking for cheap names, the bank said." (emphasis added)
www.barrons.com/articles/tax-loss-harvesting-capital-gains-stock-market-51633722742
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4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
For economy sensitive plays, I think car/ truck suppliers here are worth a look. They are not great business, and have been hit hard by first COVID-19 and then the semi shortage .
Interesting. Another beneficiary of unconstrained auto production might be upfitters, such as PLOW :
From 11/2 earnings call: "The big change in recent months was that chassis supply deteriorated further and we expect the second half of 2021 to have fewer chassis than the first half of the year as supply chain constraints really start to bite the truck OEMs and component and chip supply remains constrained. However, we haven’t seen and don’t expect to see orders being canceled. At Dejana, the strength of demand across our broad customer base bodes well for the future. We know we are always at the front end of the line for chassis and orders will be fulfilled, but the limited supply of chassis and components is frustrating to all. It bears repeating, with record backlog at solutions, we are well positioned for long-term success."
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11 hours ago, james22 said:
XLE +46%
Reviewing Byron Wien's Ten Surprises of 2021:
"7. Even as energy company executives cut estimates for long-term growth, near-term opportunities are increasing. The return to “normal” increases both industrial activity and mobility, and the price of West Texas Intermediate oil rises to $65/bbl. Rig counts increase and energy high yield bonds rally soundly. Energy stocks are among the best performers in 2021."
www.blackstone.com/news/press/byron-wien-and-joe-zidle-announce-the-ten-surprises-of-2021/
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12/31/21:
DHT -- VLCC tankers
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Pets
CHWY: -35% YTD / -52% from 52-week high
WOOF (IPO January 2021 at 18): -34% YTD / -37% from 52-week high
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On 12/20/2021 at 6:17 PM, CafeB said:
FTK - Flotek Industries
www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/flotek-industries-receives-unsolicited-indication-of-interest-engages-piper-sandler-301451063.html
“HOUSTON, Dec. 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Flotek Industries, Inc. ("Flotek" or the "Company") (NYSE: FTK) has received an unsolicited indication of interest for a potential transaction for all or part of the Company. To assist in evaluating this unsolicited indication of interest, Flotek's Board of Directors has engaged Piper Sandler & Co. ("Piper Sandler") as a financial advisor to assist with the evaluation process.”
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On 12/18/2021 at 8:41 AM, CafeB said:
MRCY: -40% YTD / -24% over 6 mo. / -43% from 52-week high ... built by acquisition, now in need of integration/"transformation"
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/activist-firm-jana-said-to-push-for-sale-of-mercury-systems
“Activist investor Jana Partners has built a position in Mercury Systems Inc. and plans to push for a strategic review of the U.S. defense electronics manufacturer, including exploring a potential sale, according to people familiar with the matter."
"The New York-based firm believes the company is undervalued and plans to meet with management and the board to discuss ideas to improve shareholder value, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. Jana confirmed that it had a 6.6% stake in the company in a regulatory filing Thursday.”
“Jana, run by Barry Rosenstein, has partnered with three industry experts on the investment who could serve as director nominees once the window for nominations opens in May, the people said. They include former Boeing Co. executive Jim Albaugh, Carol Lowe, the former chief financial officer of FLIR Systems Inc., and Blackboard Inc.’s former chief executive officer, Bill Ballhaus."
"Mercury Systems is one of the last remaining independent public suppliers of sophisticated electronics for the aerospace and defense industry after a wave of consolidation in the sector. In March, private equity firm Veritas Capital agreed to sell Abaco Systems Inc. to Ametek Inc. in deal valued at $1.35 billion, following FLIR Systems’ agreement in January to sell to Teledyne Technologies Inc.”
As of today, MRCY -35% YTD / -16% over 6 mo. / -38% from 52-week high
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2 hours ago, kab60 said:
Don't they still have two HQ's? CEO seems like a joke.
Yes, Melville, NY (on Long Island) and Davidson, NC (outside Charlotte), the latter announced 6/2012 and opened 9/2013--presented as a matter of proximity to talent: www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/msc-announces-grand-opening-of-co-headquarters-in-davidson-nc-225069772.html
Would you be willing to elaborate on your impression of MSM CEO? I only know that he is a member of the family that controls the company. Thank you
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12/23/21:
DEO - Diageo + STZ - Constellation Brands (BF-A/B - Brown-Forman ~-10% from 52-week high and ~+10% from 52-week low)
ABT - Abbott Laboratories + EW - Edwards Lifesciences (MDT - Medtronic -24% from 52-week high and +5% from 52-week low)
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On 12/21/2021 at 10:21 PM, Simba said:
Activision?
~65 this afternoon, from ~57 on 12/1. Perhaps initial scrutiny has dissipated and Kotick will survive the crisis?
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On 12/20/2021 at 4:01 PM, Broeb22 said:
all three major MRO distributors
I don't know how competitive MSM is with FAST and GWW outside of metalworking. Total market is large and fragmented. MSM management discusses "market share capture from the 70% of the distribution market that's made up of local and regional distributors"--toward a target of "at least 400 basis points of growth above the IP index by the end of our fiscal 2023"
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by CafeB
UL. Will management disregard market's vote of no confidence?