CafeB

Majority of AMBP. Selling what was bought late Dec. / early Jan. at slightly lower prices in a market that now seems far less sanguine. Admittedly an attempt at market timing. Can only speculate that its last week's high related to BLL earnings 1/27.

Thanks for sharing your notes, @Dave86ch Comment on Nomad investor letters in recent Greenhaven Road investor letter: "If we can find the right combination of reasonable price and the ability to sustain growth, we can do quite well over time, even with multiple compression. The “over time” part of the last sentence is important. For the last four years, my work bag has held a bound copy of the investor letters for Nomad, a simultaneously storied and under-the-radar investment partnership run by Nick Sleep and Qais Zakaria from 2001-2013. These letters were gifted to me in a shroud of secrecy. I was to tell nobody I had them and show nobody their contents, just study them. About a year ago, the letters were published online by Nick Sleep’s charitable foundation (link), so I was released from my vow of silence. I have never met Nick Sleep, but from everything I can tell, he managed their partnership in the right way, attracting philosophically-aligned limited partners and generating very attractive risk-adjusted returns. I occasionally daydream that investing would be so easy if I had had those letters in real time. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, we know the returns are excellent. Buy, hold, and ring the register. It would have been so easy just to copy Nomad… or would it have been? One of Nomad’s largest investments was Costco (COST), whose share price is up more than 11X from their thesis write-up published in Value Investor Insight (link) back in 2005. If you had reinvested your $50+ in dividends along the way, you would have done even better. But here is the rub: if you bought at the date of publication, you would have lost money at the end of the first four years. It was not a straight line up. The returns came in chunks, over time." (emphasis in original) www.greenhavenroad.com/investor-letters

2/4/22: --BTI -- MO within 5% of high --CME --GD, RTX

2/4/22: ENR - Energizer -- earnings Monday, 2/7 FARM - Farmer Bros. -- national coffee roaster, wholesaler and distributor of coffee, tea and culinary products -- "Our second fiscal quarter marked the sixth quarter of sequential improvement in our DSD sales, and we ended the quarter with average weekly DSD sales down 17% compared to pre-COVID levels, representing improvement from down 25% in the prior period and down 40% from one year ago." FTV - Fortive GFF - Griffon -- activist investor presentation: www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/voss-capital-issues-detailed-investor-presentation-on-griffon-corp-301465833.html LII - Lennox -- TT/Trane also down after earnings, ~10% above its low -- CARR/Carrier earnings Tuesday, 2/8 MLR - Miller Industries -- towing and recovery equipment MNRO - Monro (formerly Monro Muffler Brake)

Is a tool available that lists the indices and ETFs that a given stock is a constituent of? Thank you

2/3/22: Healthcare --ABC, MCK --BDX --CVS --MKC -- per Finviz, short float ~20% --RTX -- LMT, GD within 3% of 52-week highs -- NOC within 10% -- BA -26%

2/3/22: HON - Honeywell LMNR - Limoneira PRPL - Purple Innovation -- last at level in April 2020 XYL - Xylem

DUFRY, as Europe opens up

2/1/22: CMPR - Cimpress

Offset in part by services for larger installed base?

Cooper by Eaton, maybe It has now been nearly a decade -- not sure what it would look like today on its own -- that might be a limit of the exercise

J - Jacobs (formerly JEC - Jacobs Engineering) --significantly changed its portfolio, including sale of Energy, Chemicals, and Resources business --rebranded accordingly "from an engineering and construction company to a global technology-driven solutions company" invest.jacobs.com/investors/Press-Release-Details/2019/Jacobs-Announces-New-NYSE-Stock-Ticker-Symbol-Launching-New-Global-Brand-That-Reflects-Transformation/default.aspx

Really appreciate your comments on services companies, @Spekulatius Would appreciate if you would be willing to elaborate briefly, by way of orientation: --your comment on preference for SAIC over LDOS --your comment on possible preference for CACI over SAIC --any thoughts on BAH? --any thoughts on switching costs? Although services not as capital-intensive as products, winning product platforms are produced and sustained for multiple generations in some cases--to the extreme that Congress buys what the Pentagon no longer wants. Assuming the industry as a whole benefits for many years to come as a member of the military-industrial complex, what factors limit competition among the companies, including on price? (I note comment in 2020 VIC write-up that "SAIC collaborates with competitors to bid on large contracts" sometimes.) How might a layman evaluate claims about proprietary technologies? As an aside, recall casually following KEYW for a while from its 2010 IPO. I see now that it was acquired in 2019 by Jacobs, which appears to have significantly changed its portfolio of businesses to the extent that E&C industry classification is partial mischaracterization. I don't know if it might be of interest. Thank you very much

01/27/22: VWE - Vintage Wine Estates

EQRR - Equities for Rising Rates ETF www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/eqrr/ --"targets sectors that have had the highest correlations to 10-Year U.S. Treasury yields" --sector weightings: Financials ~30% / Energy ~25% / Materials ~20% / Industrials ~15% / Telecom ~10%

1/21/22: --chocolate -- HSY, MDLZ

Thanks for your kind reply. I will plan to start a new topic on it

1/20/22: --THO - Thor Industries -- RVs -- also WGO - Winnebago ~6% above its low --SONO - Sonos -- featured in recent Greenlight Capital investor letter: "We’ve owned SONO, which manufactures multi-room wireless smart home sound systems, for about a year. We were initially attracted by the strength of the brand and IP, SONO’s ecosystem dynamics, and signs that the company was under-earning. We’ve been impressed with management’s ability to consistently outperform both guidance and expectations amidst a rapidly changing macro environment. We think that there is a long-term household penetration story here: SONO products are currently in approximately 11 million homes globally, a number that has grown by at least 20% in each of the last 4 years and stands to grow further as SONO adds more accessible price points, expands into new verticals, and introduces new products and services. While we acknowledge that there are near-term headwinds in the form of supply chain disruptions and a cyclical normalization in consumer electronics demand, we think these will prove to be temporary distractions in an otherwise bright growth story. Between an elevated backlog of orders that will support demand well into the next year and strong pricing power, we see earnings growing close to 25% annually for the next few years. The stock currently trades at just over 15x FY2021 adjusted earnings net of the $5 cash per share on the balance sheet today. We purchased our stake at an average price of $28.45 per share. SONO shares ended the quarter at $32.36." valuewalk.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Qlet2021-03-3-1-1.pdf

1/20/22: --CME --packaging -- CCK, SEE

CULP

That's a great example. I think considering "losing" a stock can, as you say, go some way to confirming or disconfirming one's long-term interest in the position. As an ATVI shareholder I did not anticipate the regret with which I would respond to yesterday's announcement--and although MSFT is obviously a much larger business with multiple major drivers, I am now more interested in it as the acquirer of those assets.

Yes, I was not as clear as I might have been. The focus of the topic was to be acquisitions recalled as regrettable when announced--for the loss of the opportunity to continue to invest directly.

--PWFL -- new CEO in interim

Extraordinary performances since by CDNS and SNPS

1/18/22: In addition to banks and oil & gas, -- HCC - Warrior Met Coal --HMHC -- several recent posts: --SJM, CHD -- with UL at low