Dinar
-
Posts
1,765 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Dinar
-
-
26 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:
Started with small positions today in :
BALB B.STO [Fastighetsbolaget Balder AB, ser. B, Göteborg, Sweden], &
CAST.STO [Castellum AB, Stockholm, Sweden].
I may change my mind about them and sell them at any moment, thereby considering the buys of them errors.
Why? ty
-
I would like to know is where those losses on equity investments came from. It seems that aside from profit on the swap, return on the equity portfolio was not lousy.
-
Buy a farm with a supply of water, learn how to raise animals and fruits & vegetables, source of energy - ideally hydro and solar (both) and far away from civilization yet close enough so you can get it from your house.
-
Actually, I think 25-30 year TIPS with 2.4-2.5% real yield are a no-brainer here for non-taxable and tax-deferred accounts, assuming inflation will get measured properly.
-
1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
Hi @Dinar,
Your post above reads as if it perhaps the outcome / conclusion from some kind of screening. Could you please mention one or a few names with tickers?
John, I met with an acquaintance of mine yesterday, he is a retired hedge fund manager who had an incredible track record for many years. As many other very wealthy people who made their fortunes in 1980-2010 period, he is very bearish in general given the tremendous US budget deficit. He feels that Norwegian savings banks give him an investment that is extremely low risk (loans are mostly to Norwegian consumers who are in very good shape, and will be bailed out by Norwegian sovereign wealth fund), additional quirks (40% ownership by Norwegian foundations) further lowers credit risk, trade at 10x p/e with 12-13% ROE, 5%+ dividend yields, and possibly appreciating currency vs USD. So call it a 10% return in NOK and more in USD.
Saw I was curious if anybody had looked at these things.
He did not mention any specific names, and I have not looked into these things yet.
-
Has anyone looked at them?
-
@thepupil just make sure that you can deduct margin interest on your tax return. I got hit with that last year, got the deduction on the federal level but did not get on the state level. Painful in a place like NYC
-
44 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:
Also bought MSCI today ... was down -15% at one point. Huge switching costs and I like their approach to capital allocation. Rare to get a quality compounder like this on sale.
I disagree with you. There are no switching costs, and tremendous customer concentration with customers incentivized to switch.
-
6 hours ago, Luca said:
The United States has given Israel more aid than any other nation since World War II, granting it more than $260 billion.
If you read the article, you will realize that the numbers are cooked, they are simply NOT correct.
a) The figures are adjusted for inflation, however not properly. If the money for arms purchases was granted in 1960, but not spent until 1970, there is no adjustment for the fact that 1970 dollar bought far less than 1960 dollar. So when the article translates 1960 dollar into 2021 dollar, it does not differentiate between the 1960 aid spent in 1960 and in 1970. So methodology is fatally flawed.
b) The chart does NOT support the $260 bn figure, more like half that.
-
2 hours ago, Luca said:
Yeah I mean that's nothing really, Israel received 250b since its founding?
But also, yes, they can not be made partners or stabilized. Not worth spending money on, especially with radical Islam, etc.
Dude, I generally agree with you, but your numbers cannot be correct. How do you figure that Israel received $250bn since its founding. From which governments?
-
1 hour ago, Xerxes said:
That is a little bit overdramatic.
Europe is fine for vacationing. All the way to Poland.
My biggest regret is not being
able to see St Petersburg and Moscow and do the transiberian train.
That is a goner for the next 10-15 years
I am with you. I wanted to do this during the world cup in 2018, but my wife would not let me (we had a 2 year old and she was pregnant - she could not go, while she thought I'd come back with a girlfriend from there...)
The country in incredibly beautiful both nature wise and architecture wise, while we are on the subject of regrets, I'd add Kiev, Palmyra & Damascus. I cannot wait for regime change in Iran - I would love to visit Isfahan, Shiraz, Persepolis, et all.
-
@MMM20, Look I own the stock, and I give Prem credit for the correct calls on the bond market, the building of the insurance business, and investments in India. If Prem is comfortable with venture capital - Digit, Tyke/Davos, etc.., then he is certainly comfortable with GARPY names or should be.
-
26 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:
I think Fairfax is an absolute return investor and not a relative return investor. They aren’t trying to beat the S&P/500.And they should be, however what is then the appropriate benchmark? In other words, how do you judge the performance of the portfolio?
-
30 minutes ago, MMM20 said:
Some people believe that Fairfax has performed poorly on the investment side and won’t be convinced otherwise by any amount of data or examples.
O'k, wise guy, what has been the return on the equity & quasi equity portfolio over the past 5, 10, and 20 years and how does that compare with the S&P? Then adjust for the fact that Shawkei, Tyku/Davos Brands and Eurobank where way riskier investments than the S&P 500, and that Fairfax should have earned liquidity and risk premiums above the S&P.
-
1 hour ago, Viking said:
@Dinar If Fairfax has performed so poorly on the investment side, how did they compound book value at 18.4% over 38 years? Insurance/underwriting?Leverage in a bull market, coupled with a good insurance business.
-
I think the big risks are the northeast wind that Prem referred to (what is that by the way?), general major catastrophe - say massive earthquake in NY, 5-10% annual inflation that causes reserves to be inadequate, and lousy performance on the investment side. While everyone is cheering for Prem, I remain a skeptic on the investment side. (Tyku/Davos Brands, Shawkei, BDT, Blackberry - none of these were any good, and Eurobank was not exactly a home run.) Their equity and quasi-equity - BDT has massively underperformed S&P while taking much greater risk - Shawkei is clearly quite levered, so is Eurobank, and Tyku/Davos from what I heard, could be a mistake, was never profitable, and without a greater fool - Diageo could have been a zero.
-
6 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:
My very elaborate plan to become a Wintaai shareholder wasn't a complete failure.
I would make sure that this is not a PFIC for US tax purposes, if it is, you will probably bitterly regret getting involved.
-
5 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Add to Fairfax
No Clipper for you?
-
59 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
My guess is that Iran really didn’t want to do that much damage. They were just forced to “do something” to save face after Israel bombed their assets and are probably glad if this does not escalate.
Not that Iran government are great guys, but I think they want to stay out of the Gaza conflict. They are more rational than many in the west think, but they are also bound by constraints that can force them into a Zugzwang situation.
I don't know what Iran wanted or wants, but according to his obituary published by the Iranian press, the Iranian general who was killed planned the October 7th massacre. So if that is true, it is clear that Iran wanted a war with Israel or at least was fine with it.
-
10 hours ago, ourkid8 said:
So you are saying Gaza is not an open-air prison and Palestinians are free to leave at any time without permission?
come on, now you are just being silly.
You stated that Israelies are occupiers, and therefore they can be killed and raped with impunity. Using your logic, anybody in North America who is not 100% descendant of Indians should be murdered since they are all occupiers. Also, 100% of Turks must killed as well since they are on Greek and Armenian land. So do you support killing all Turks in Turkey and all 100% non American Indians in North America? If not, why do you support killing Jews but not other "occupiers"?
-
1 hour ago, ourkid8 said:
The idea that Israel is defending itself is absurd as the notion that a rapist is defending itself from the victim - Israel is the occupier!
Israel is not the occupier, Jews have lived in Israel, Gaza, West Bank (Judea and Samaria) for three thousand years continuosly. Arabs came in 1600 years later. Do you also believe that Armenians and Greeks have the right to rape and murder every Turk in Turkey since Turks murdered two million of them in the 1910s-1920s and kicked the rest out? If you live in North America, or Australia, do you believe that Indians/Aborigines have the right to murder you in cold blood? If not, why not?
-
3 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:
Sajeev, The 5 points of Genocide being committed:
1. Mass killing of Palestinians - innocent death toll is at 33,000 and counting
2. Bodily and mental harm - Over 76,000 wounded
3. forced displacement and food blockade
4. Destruction of the health care system
5. Preventing Palestinian births
If you compare hamaas to the rawanda death squads, how would you compare the IDF based on the above 5 points being committed against innocent ppl?
The question is not getting rid of hamas as that's what Israel media wants you to believe is the issue to justify the Genocide. The real question is how to make hamas irrelevant . Maybe, just maybe if you treat the Palestinians like humans and you give them their dignity outside of an 'open air prison' then maybe the reason for hamas to exist may not be required which in turn would make them irrelevant. To make a lasting deal, you need two sides to want to make a deal and Trump even admitted, Israel PM Netanyahu never wanted to make peace.
Since members of Hamas are included in that death toll, according to you they are clearly innocent. We get it. Hamas should be allowed to kill Israelis and Israelis are supposed to do nothing in response and cannot be allowed to defend themselves.
-
31 minutes ago, Xerxes said:
Oh Jesus, here we go again. Another thread for people to discuss their non-markets points of view and show us how much they know
Do I really need to jump in here ? lol
I am about f@&ing tired to hear about Israeli and Palestinean and how their “TrUth” is more superior.
To think of it, maybe they deserve each other. They both only offer hate, only care about themselves and suck an outsize amount of oxygen, and they think that exactly “they” and no one else is special.
I want I hear about the Yzidies, the Armenian and Kurds. They don’t even have sugar daddies.
You are right, also Assyrians for that matter. Agree regarding Netanyahu and Ben Gvir.
-
I am probably mistaken, however if all Iran does is fire dozens of missiles and drones, then that's the least that one could have expected.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
I cut my position by roughly 80% post Q1 results in February, and I sold the rest today. I just don't think the company is analyzable today, and if we go into recession it can be a zero.