nsx5200

We're going to see a whole new suite of attacks and volatilities from these agentic trading. Who said value investing is dead?

If you view physical gold and BTC more or less equivalent, can you do pseudo pair trade on them and use that both of their volatility to ratchet up the growth?

It's that kind of nuance that non-technical people don't get easily. They would rather have a very simple narrative that AI will take over anything that requires "intelligence". Very black and white. For those non-technical project managers/finance analysts, a crash course in AI helps to tease out the possible from the (probably) impossible.

I like this part of the article: "Catherine Wu, head of product for Claude Code at Anthropic, says the visual flicker was a side effect of a software team moving at a rapid pace, [...]. The flicker has largely been fixed, she adds." The implication is that it is still not fixed, nor have they determined the root-caused of it to fix it. Probably because they asked AI to fix it, and AI mostly fixed it. Not saying it won't improve, but that's probably a good summary of the current state-of-the-art AI vibe coding. Seeing that AI is starting to break the open source model. I suspect GPL will come up with an update to address it, similar to how SaaS forced GPL to update to AGPL.

Like all previous "breakthroughs"(oil/electricity/broadcast medium/internet), it will follow the S-curve instead of a linear or exponential curve. There are many signs that we're at the start of the levelling off of the S-curve. We're starting to see more AI generated contents, which is used to train future generation models. We know that performance of models that train on AI generated content degrades, and we also know that they're starting to run out of human-generated contents to train future models on. We're starting to see the many constraints, many of them are physical now, of what it takes to build out an AI-centric future. At some point, incremental model improvement will slow down. Any future improvement will be grindier. Current AI will at some point be commodity similar to previously mentioned breakthroughs. IMHO, China/CCP understand correctly that AI is just a new tool, and they're using this new tool to apply it when it makes sense.

Yes. It's a bit off-topic, but Planet Money ran an episode on the type of jobs that seems promising in the future. This is a basic summary of the reliability of that report: "WONG: What Maxim found was that the top third of jobs that were projected to grow the fastest did grow a lot. They rose by 57% over two decades. The bottom third of projected jobs actually grew by only 12%." The interesting nugget in there that I find interesting is that green energy jobs tops that list while the U.S. solar industry is currently in a free-fall (with Freedom Forever, the 2nd largest installer in the U.S., according to AI Overview going into Chapter 11). Besides the green energy jobs that's somewhat related to AI, these other two made it to the list as well: Data scientists and Information security analysts. Both use a decent chunk of AI as tools in their business. IMHO, these hints to the types of business that will survive and thrive post-AI crash are the ones that actually help existing business be more productive with AI.

So should we be debating on which one is the potential baby, amongst the carcasses in the aftermath? I find that debate to be more interesting/useful than trying to time potential bubbles. If anything, it helps to be prepared if/when it happens, hopefully with a decent amount of ammo in the chambers.

I don't know about a bubble, but looking FTAI (they lease/maintain/service certain airplane engines): The reason for that bump: FTAI Power Initiative: The company launched an innovative platform to convert its extensive inventory of legacy CFM56 aircraft engines into 25-megawatt power turbines. This initiative capitalizes on the massive, rapid increase in global electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers and data centers. I'm old enough to remember the dot-com days(but not old enough to benefit from it ) when all a company had to do was say they're doing internet stuff, and their stock price would sky rocket. Not saying this is that, but it does share some of the same characteristic... In the mean time, there seems to be a lot of stuff being discarded that I'm trying to pick up so I can watch my portfolio shrink. Fun times.

China Chinese? They're at the whims of their government. When the government "encourage" them to buy real estate, they buy real estate. Many of them got burned when the government withdrew the push for real estate. Tons of stories like this keeps happening, and until they rise up, all they can do is keep grinding at it while their government do whatever they want... The people are treated just like cogs in their machine. At the risk of sounding too political, the ones that can, leave, or at least have a plan B for outside of China. The ones that can't, grind on.

Just be careful about planning to leave your kids a lot of money. If you set their expectation as such, they can become entitled, which is much more dangerous than leaving them the money IMHO. Just look at those Redstones, Murdoch, where a particular kid expect certain things but doesn't get it, and the family ends up getting destroyed. In an ideal world, I want my kids capable enough to create their own space/standing in the world after receiving their "standard" college degree free of loans/obligation. After that, they should have enough tools in their toolkit to figure the rest themselves. Any extra help from us after that should be just icing on the cake. I suspect they will get a lot more than icing on the cake at the end, but I don't want them to have that expectation. The more interesting question that occupies my mind is what do I really want to leave them(and their future off springs) at the end? Money/asset? Attitude/philosophies? And how to go about it? Rituals/processes that will change over time? How much of it should be in existing formal/legal mechanisms like trusts vs non-systematic mechanisms such as modern day tribal rituals? How much influence into the future do we practically have, right now, and for how long? It might be premature to think about these things, but life is strange that way, bad things happen when you least expect them to, so it's probably a good idea to start thinking about these things while it's still possible, and start setting things up. Good ideas tend to come from distilling them, and the issue with legacy seems to be too important to be left to chance, IMHO. This is especially true if you expect to have a bigger pot to leave behind, as it would be kind of sad for future generations to blow it/misuse it if the plan is to just leave them with it without some mechanism to prevent it. Could be as simple as some guidance if you think you've instilled enough of the values in them. Apologies for hijacking this thread for my rambling.

$20 mil is quite a bit. Once the FU money is secured in pretty much all but the world-ending scenarios, I would claim that it's easier for you to work on the "living below your means", with the addition of "being okay with it". If you're on social media a lot, having less than $20mil will feel insufficient, as you will feel like you need to own several Ferraris just to be "happy". That million dollar house will feel insufficient as you eye that $5M house. Even if you reach $20M, you still won't think it's enough, as the goal post have moved. It only looks enough because it seems like an impossible goal right now. Determining your actual FU money and not growing your lifestyle creep is crucial, as it sets the bare minimum that you need for the remainder of your life. I suspect the real FU money people really need in life is a lot lower than people think(ex. $20M). Figure out what's important in life, and optimize that. Money is just a tool to accomplishes that, and shouldn't be what's important in life... Just look at the Murdochs and the Redstones. Definitely got their priorities wrong. Plenty of anti-examples around us to learn from.

I have a HELOC with a 10 year draw down period that I can make last for 10+ years if it comes down to it. On top of that, there are life-long equity positions that can be margined or sold off for cash. These are essentially multiple levels of backup plans in case something goes to poo. As long as it's not full systemic (ex. nuclear winter, end of civilization in which case I would be considering shotguns instead of numbers on a screen), it just means more buying opportunities. For those with an established equity position in life, it's a great time to take advantage of these opportunities. For those that are still establishing the equities, the same formula still applies: Work hard, live below your means, keep a year worth of cushion in your backup plan (cash, HELOC, whatever that incurs the least amount of (opportunity) cost), and over time, the accumulated equities will snowball into its own established positions. You can pretty much tell who's been around a long time by the attitude they express on this thread. Take the long-view like the old-timers, it's less stressful, and it actually works. Once you reach your own FU number, anything above that is "just money". Nobody can take it with them at the end, so what's really the difference between +50% or -50% at the end? Does it really matter to you, personally, if the next guy turned into a millionaire buying BTC? It helps to know what's actually important in life and not get stressed about the stuff that aren't. On a lighter note, I find it amusing that one of my neighbor will go out of their way to harass me about my lawn. Talking about worrying about the not-important stuff in life... Try not to be my neighbor. It's a lot harder than it sounds.

So I find these videos on vibe coding instructive on what actually works, and what actually changed in software development with vibe coding. Vibe coding is like dealing with an remote Indian team: everything must be spelled out so there's very little room for free interpretation, otherwise, the AI may find some magic loophole that satisfies the ask without accomplishing the task. Dealing with AI coding is like dealing with a Rumpelstiltskin contract. So the hype/narrative around vibe-everything(level 5, according to the video), will most likely shift back to where humans will still need to be in the loop to at least know what's going when things breaks (and break it will due to Murphy's law). Less actual low-level coder will be needed, but the remaining coders will need to be more experienced so that the proper maintainable solutions can be created. At the end of the day, vibe coding is just another tool in the coding toolbox.

The situation is even worse. In China, the land for these real estate buildings are "leased" for 70 years(see wiki), so when the Chinese citizens "buys" residential property, they're merely buying the building/unit, and not owning the land. For those that follows real estate development in major cities like New York, in the long run, the building/unit is worthless as they will eventually be teared down and rebuilt. But every rebuild is typically more dense/higher. So in the long run, all the value is in the land whereas the building itself is more or less worthless. So for the Chinese citizen "owning" real estate, there is a forced 70 year depreciation that can not be mitigated away. That's why a lot of Chinese citizens will actually buy real estate in Democratic countries like Canada or United States where the real estate is a more legal "permanent" purchase(there's the annual taxes, but at least if you pay that, you get to keep the land). The CCP's solution to this, of course, is to heavily restrict capital outflow. Roach motel for capital. 70 years translates to 1.43% a year. 20 years translates into ~30% in this type of "depreciation" already. Compared this against the appreciation typically found in Democratic countries. The result is stark. When Buffet says that many of us won the ovarian lottery, he's not joking. It is truly a privilege to be born into countries that are Democratic where the rules are designed for the benefits of the people. Many rights we take for granted are simply not there in non Democratic countries.

Ran across this timely article about new fatherhood: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20260417-fatherhood-how-the-male-brain-and-body-prepare-for-childcare "[...]fatherhood changes men in ways that echo how motherhood transforms women." "[...]oxytocin, the so-called love hormone[...] Many studies around the world have found higher oxytocin in fathers, including those with kids aged one to two years old and those interacting with babies under six months – and that seems to correspond to the amount of time spent with our kids."

I picked up some RACE. It's probably only fairly valued though so it'll probably just sit in a drawer somewhere gathering dust.

Really happy for you. These are the big items that I remember: - When things get rough and nothing seems to go right, as long as everybody is safe, take a few minutes to reset. A few minutes of hunger/crying isn't going to be the end of the world. - Take the long view. It's hard to see it when you're fighting "fire" left and right, but on the grand scheme of things, a lot of things don't matter. It may seem like everything is 'work' right now, but when they get older, you'll miss it. So try to enjoy the 'work' in the mist of it. - Take lots of pictures. Even if you think it's enough, it won't be. - New challenges presents new opportunities. Use this new pathway to gain more insights into new areas you haven't looked at before. I bet you'll gain new perspective/insight into social media, as well as digital entertainment... You'll look at Meta and its family of social tools differently . You'll understand why Google Photo is such a beast.

Nice, buying on the way up. I need to practice that muscle instead of always use the other one (buying on the way down). Any advice on overcoming that mental barrier?

Sounds like you forgot to grease the squeaky wheel... A well greased wheel spins much faster in the CCP system. My straight-shooter friend that used to have a lot of manufacturing done in China shifted most of his manufacturing of out China already. Now, he abhors having to physically go to China oversee the remaining operations. These anti-business policies just signals where business/economics/trade, especially FDI, are in the Chinese government's priority list.

So those robotics shows are pretty impressive, but I think they're heavily choreographed/edited: Here's a more behind-the-scene look on these type of performances from a, unfortunately heavily anti-China biased video. I was not able to locate much more of these realistic demos from unbiased sources, which has deeper implications on the level of penetration of CCP influence on the US media that should probably belong in the Politics section... https://youtu.be/ZMa0jjTEb6k?t=4079 What is impressive is how fluid these robotics have become, even with the human remote control. They're definitely on-par, if not better than the US based companies (Tesla, Boston Dynamics). I'd keep a healthy dose of skepticism from watching these impressive videos, even the ones put out by Tesla.

Was just randomly looking at tickers of past holdings and found out that $CAR is currently undergoing a month long short-squeeze: What's unusual is that until recently it's received very little coverage on the usual social channels (Twitter, Reddit), so not your typical GME MEME squeeze. This is an interesting space since it primarily operates a used car sales business with a car rental business attached to it, the way I understand it. This is even more so post-pandemic. Unfortunately I exited this small position long ago while cleaning up my portfolio. Was wondering if anybody have any interesting stories to tell. TIA.

Was reading the Irrational Analysis substack that gfp recommended, and came across these lines: "1) Israel bombed Iranian natural gas infrastructure, with the permission/blessing of USA. (attempt to force negotiations?) 2) Iran retaliated and blew up Qatar LNG facilities, taking out 17% of their capacity for the next 3-5 years. 3) Trump obviously panicked and told Israel to back off." Makes me think Iran should hold its own NG and oil production hostage and threaten to blow it up if some demands aren't met. Similar to this following scene: "Hold it men. He's not bluffing" "Listen to him, men. He's just crazy enough to do it." The parallel has me balling... in a very sad way.

Note that a lot of times in these type of problems, sometimes it's good enough to reduce the search space down to one where it's doable to brute-force/solve with other methods. Described more generically, these types of problems can be solved with a series of tools/method to arrive at the solution. Advancements in Mathematics are done this way, and this BTC 'problem' is no different than other mathematic problems. This potential 'flaw' is not present in physical gold, so to say that BTC is digital, better version of gold is not an accurate representation. Each has its own set of pros and cons.

It looks like my limits on SKYH triggered this morning and now I'm a potential bag holder of SKYH now. May the rich stay rich while using their private planes so us peasants can at least get some breadcrumbs. "Let them eat cake"

Short-term, pay the fee. Long-term, build your own pipeline and security to protect it. If Iran is smart, they would price their fee to match what it cost to maintain the pipeline, and periodically attack the pipeline to make the maintenance cost high. Pipeline owners would periodically allow these attacks to succeed so they can charge a premium for running material through their pipeline. Win for the pipeline/strait cartel without explicit collusion, which would invite the west to intervene. On another note. I'm surprised that the the solar industry is still down so much from the Trumpian policies. I would think at some point in time, reality kicks in and alternative energy generation like solar/wind must enter the picture to help fill in gaps.