tengen

Volkswagen is a pretty good company that looks poised to gain market share in the US. They have a plant in Chattanooga but I think the majority of the VWs sold in the US are built in Mexico. Mexican built cars would benefit from the lower peso and the protection of NAFTA. VW also has a range of models tailored to US tastes, which differ markedly from the rest of the world. Disclaimer: I've been thinking about buying a VW Golf and not so much (or not at all) about investing in the company.

In the latest Economist, there's an article claiming the Saudis need $104 oil to not run a deficit. They have three years worth of foreign currency reserves to balance things without cutting spending or finding alternate sources of revenue such as raising taxes. If they are hunkering down for an extended period of low oil, I believe we should expect to see them raising or introducing new taxes within a fairly short time frame (e.g. this year). I don't believe they will cut spending as that is how they avoid civil unrest. Perhaps they will spend down some of their reserves but surely not by a huge amount.

It's a solid Shackvaluation based on Shackenomics.

Well, I do use an RSS reader to read a lot of stuff (the Feedly iPad app is great, especially in combination with Paper). However, in the case of CoB&F, I just check the web site every now and then, and click on the discussion threads that are of interest to me. A new posting to "OAK" is something I wouldn't have clicked on but anything with "oil" in the title has my full attention. :-) Concerning the letter, it contains a lot of opinions that I agree with regarding the unpredictability of markets, the difficulty of identifying risks let alone quantifying them, and the opportunities that arise when things seem to start getting out of hand. Maybe I will start following the OAK thread.

Same here. Thanks for posting it in a separate thread.

Didn't someone post "the case for $200 / barrel oil" back when the price breached $100? $35 or $200? I don't know, maybe both. ;-)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/15/russia-interest-rate-rise-17pc-rouble-collapse-oil-price Announcement came at roughly 1am Moscow time!

I think Vermillion Energy (VET-T) is a high quality mid-cap name. They are well diversified outside Canada, with producing assets in Europe, the Caribbean, and a big NG project nearing completion in Ireland. Not a lot of debt. Excellent management, IMO.

I figured he lives too far away. Surf might appear in unexpected places: http://www.surfberlin.com

Haha, I was just about to post that. Ericopoly, I'm disappointed you didn't recommend surfing. As for the OP, maybe there's another job close to where you live that meets your goals?

And then there's the "abiotic theory": http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/400230-vinod-dar/47079-abiotic-oil-and-gas-a-theory-that-refuses-to-vanish Disclaimer: I don't subscribe to this theory myself. As for the book, there's no doubt the easy energy obtained from fossil fuels has contributed to improving quality of life all over the world. The problem is that we may be incurring a future cost that will make us look foolish in the long term. The summary on Amazon tells me all I need to know about the book and its author.

I think the Grantham comment we are referring to is the one quoted in the "Canadian oil patch for sale" thread: http://online.barrons.com/articles/jeremy-grantham-u-s-stocks-can-gain-at-least-10-before-crash-1416334236 Perhaps it boils down to one's definition of "long term". :) Edit: fixed the quote

I am mystified as well. However, when I read stories about traders having a competition to be the first to buy oil at $100, I wonder about market manipulation: http://www.businessinsider.com/gerry-altilio-meet-the-man-who-single-handedly-shot-oil-to-record-prices-and-bought-the-first-100-barrel-2010-8 I also recall stories that blamed high oil prices on hedge funds. Maybe we can blame them for the drop as well... :-\

Thanks for posting this as Grantham is always a good read. My key take away is Grantham's statement that, while he is unsure of the timing, he believes there will be an "accelerating transference of demand away from oil under the impact of surprising technological progress in alternative energy". I was curious to do some more research and found some surprisingly (to me) good news about solar power. We may indeed see the cost of solar power become comparable to fossil fuel energy by the end of the decade (http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2014/15405.html).

The Ontario Securities Commission has approved a new exchange, Aequitas NEO. effective March 1, 2015. One of the stated aims is to counteract high frequency traders. http://aequitasneoexchange.com/

I don't believe climate change is good for humanity, but it may be very good for jellyfish: http://qz.com/290657/jellyfish-are-stepping-up-their-ocean-invasions-and-humans-are-helping-them/

Clayton's daughter, Susan Riddell Rose, runs Perpetual Energy (PMT). His son John runs Paramount Resources (POU). Both are, by all accounts, chips off the old block.

I think Eric needs to post something about drugs and prostitutes to bring this discussion back on topic.

You guys do realize that Ebola can only by transmitted by physical contact?

Interesting read (as such things go): http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/image/FromMay2014/Geneva16.pdf

Don't forget the 10,000 to 1 reverse stock split.

Congrats Sanjeev on your new position! Are you going to change the name of the company?

Just wait until someone starts a thread to discuss religion and morality. Then you can derail it with a discussion on drugs and prostitution. My position on drugs: I believe in the "four pillars" approach, which involves harm reduction, prevention, treatment and enforcement. I think legalization will help provided it is part of a broader strategy.

Sounds like a reasonable conjecture. They slashed costs by reducing the head office count by about one third and passed the savings on to the franchise owners. Introducing new stores to test concepts will help revitalize a stagnant brand. They'll quickly run through their cash if they open a couple of stores so cutting the dividend makes sense. On the other hand, I predict pot cafes will become the next big thing (and I'm half serious here).

I wonder what they have in mind? Investing in pot cafes down south?