Ulti
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Everything posted by Ulti
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http://www.gasprocessingnews.com/news/canada-would-back-economically-viable-new-lng-terminals.aspx A tiny step forward for mankind (peoplekind to be politically correct haha)?
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I dont know about that but this Strategic Reserve release has been one huge political sham...Biden certainly has increased future geopolitical risk with the move and has made the US much more vulnerable to OPEC+ Coordinating and building out clean fossil fuel infrastructure jointly with our northern neighbors should be our country and both parties primary focus . https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/energy-permitting-needs-reform/id1081481629?i=1000582461840 good podcast on the issues of permitting etc\Columbia Energy Exchange
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000582505498 excellent podcast on what’s happening in China… is China relations/ chips and more
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We will find out shortly
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I hope you are right... we need a comprehensive immigration policy to bring in workers for areas of need... I'm afraid the politics will be just like Manchin trying to streamline permitting ...... That being said, though I'm no expert, it seems like MF in desirable areas will continue to do well for the foreseeable future.
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https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/apartments-net-absorption-very-low slower completion rate of apartments in the pipeline with softer demand
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000581366234 episode is all about inflation….good bit about rent and healthcare and how they are measured in cpi…. While mortgage interest is not anymore ( since they dropped it during Volkers time)
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Oaktree and MF Multifamily has historically held up well during economic downturns. (See Figure 4.) This is primarily due to the asset class’s short average lease terms (typically one year) and relatively low annual capital requirements as well as the availability of debt financing from the federally backed agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Importantly, short average lease terms also benefit multifamily properties during periods of high inflation because property owners can quickly adjust rental rates. While we don’t expect growth in multifamily rents to continue to increase at the rapid pace recorded in the last 12 months, we believe the rate will remain fairly high over the short to medium term, as the supply of housing in much of the U.S. is insufficient to meet the demand. Moreover, we think the U.S. housing shortage could be exacerbated if anticipated increases in land, labor, and materials costs constrain new construction.
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Also Bill McBride gives periodic info https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/pace-of-rent-increases-continues-601
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https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data I like their monthly reports; kinda "just the facts"
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https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/corelogic-annual-us-rent-price-growth-slows-for-third-consecutive-month-in-july/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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https://macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/ep-122-ivy-zelman-on-the-coming-us-housing-crisis/ Sobering view on single and mf housing in the next few years
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Ha. Let me ask a possible silly question.. One of the persons I try to read is alex gurevich; a global macro trader with his own shop. He seems to feel we are heading to(or in) a global recession and should be concerned with coming deflation.(looking at inflation is looking in the rear view mirror). It seems that companies like aiv and joe can handle this environment with clean balance sheets ,good locations and appeal to the top 10%er's. Is this too simplistic a viewpoint concerning mf and specialized (joe ) real estate ? Is the cyclicality of their business just due to supply\demand and that should be the focus?
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https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rwh013-move-slow-win-big-w-thomas-russo/id928933489?i=1000579799238 Good interview with Tom Russo; Spends some time discussing his large position in BRK
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https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/foreign-affairs-the-worlds-first-energy-crisis/id1081481629?i=1000577828767 excellent podcast done in June on Geopolitics\energy transition\renewable over the next few decades.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/canada-invokes-1977-pipeline-treaty-192117311.html
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Thanks SD... I listened to a podcast interview with Trent Boehm a Canadian energy investment banker for many decades and he talks similar to you....capital discipline, lack of investment etc. A silly question, but if Canadian o&g company's are restricted concerning exports, how will these companies continue to maximize returns? How much o\g is Canada currently exporting ? Is production still primarily for local consumption ? This is why I invested in VET;because of the European exposure currently in their portfolio. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/95-trent-boehm-stifel-firstenergy-why-its-the-golden/id1493491566?i=1000577378902
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Canada-Set-To-Miss-Out-On-A-Massive-LNG-Opportunity.html It seems like this is a fluff piece but what do I know ...hopefully someone can enlighten me...I thought that the western Transmountain line was going to offer export opportunity to Asia and indirectly free up more gas from the US to go to Europe....as well as directly export to US lng facilities. https://www.capp.ca/explore/oil-and-natural-gas-pipelines/ According to this website , the industry agrees with missed opportunities and lng .
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https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/ multifamily construction at a 50 year high
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good article on shifting energy security and the next 10 years https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/new-winners-new-losers-toward-a-new-energy-security/
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/why-the-rent-inflation-is-so-damn-high/ar-AA10NrMr
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I've got a question.... can the below figures be used to evaluate the worth of O&G companies as well as aquisitions? In a very rough sort of way ? And in US and Canada. Denver company struck a deal to sell the business and its South Texas oil assets to Devon Energy Corp. for $1.8 billion Tuesday, more than double the price that the oil wells and mineral rights cost 18 months ago.Validus’ wells currently produce about 35,000 barrels of oil and natural gas per day, nearly 70% of which is crude oil. Production is growing on a pace to reach 40,000 barrels per day in 2023, Devon said. https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2022/08/09/validus-denver-devon-energy-acquisition-oil-texas.html?utm_source=sy&utm_medium=nsyp&utm_campaign=yh