wescobrk

"if you look at the results set out in the 1984 Graham and Doddsville article/speech Schloss had a better overall record over a longer time period." Schloss had 21.3 compared to munger's 19.8 cagr but schloss had another 14 years to offset the 73-74 on his returns compared to munger. Your statement is definitely correct but I thought further data helps explain how close they are and walter had more time to offset the 73-74.

depends on your comfort level with volatility. Munger's entire portfolio (and has been for many, many years) is 3 stocks.

Also, which website can one obtain implied volatility for call and put options on different stocks? I thought Morningstar had it but now I can't seem to find it.

"Amazon is taking its sweet time sending me my copy. I'm guessing the publisher is part of Hachette... :-\" I receive my copy early this week. I actually forgot about the order as I placed it several months ago when it was announced on this board. Amazon's moat just keeps getting wider. It showed me how the price of the book dropped in price after I placed my order and they (amazon) gave me the lower price. Bezos is amazing (I don't own any stock just an admirer)

I regret not buying a small position after the fire story. I'm curious what price the board what buy Tesla at? I may have to wait for the next bear market to initiate a position.

Also, can you give us who the top five largest shareholders are and the % breakdown? Thanks.

Congrats, Sanjeev!! I couldn't be happier for you! How do I find the financials for prdgf? I would love to be a shareholder but I need to look at the financials first. Thanks!

I've seen shark tank and find it entertaining but I've only caught snippets here and there. I don't understand why Cuban invests 100k in a business with the promise of how he can help them. Seems like a massive waste of time for him but I suppose he enjoys the action.

I think TBV is a bit misleading in Citigroup's case as nearly 30% of TBV is made up of DTA's. The DTA's would be utilized over the next 10-20 years in Citigroup's case, since profits are generated in different jurisdictions compared to where DTA's are located. So if you take PV of these DTA's they should be 30 cents to the dollar. If you make this adjustment, it is trading at about TBV. Not saying Citigroup is not attractive, just that TBV would give you a misleading picture. Better I think to look at cash earnings. Vinod Good point, thanks. Citigroup is trading 8.2, bac 9.8 and jpm 8.6 2015 earnings using yahoo finance estimates of roughly 26 analysts.

"I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low. My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board. People believe what they want to believe." I thought bac would disappoint as well but I also thought citi would pass three stress tests when I saw them 160 basis higher than bac on stressed tier 1 but we all know how great that decision of was mine. This is a humbling business. I have new appreciation for Buffett always looking for the sure thing.

Bac and c are down big as well in premarket. I haven't had a chance to read jpm. I tried to buy some wfc at the last 30 seconds of trading yesterday but it didnt fill. Wfc is up a tad this morning. Citigroup is now about 20 percent discount to tbv

What does everyone think of republican congressman camp to tax banks with 500 billion in assets? Obama has pushed for it for the last three years. What does everyone think of the chances of it passing next year? Jp,c,bac and wfc should earn close to 100 billion at some point in a single year. The probability will probably rise each year. The government of course has indirectly already "taxed" morgan and bac in the tens of billions.

I agree Becky does a good job of keeping the focus on the guests. I don't like how kernan takes forever to formulate his question. That being said, I do find him funny sometimes.

A tad off topic but I was wondering if anyone is aware if there are laws against talking about a limited partnership fund while doing a podcast? I'm in the United States. I still have my day job but would like to do something else in 5 years. I believe sec/finra finally relaxed rules for talking about investment funds to the public?

Thanks for posting.

Good luck to all citi and bac shareholders this month. About three weeks until citi and bac announce they are actually paying a dividend (4 cents doesn't count). Granted the majority will go towards stock buybacks but almost 8 billion a piece including buybacks and dividends each will probably see a lot of momentum traders bid bac close to 18 and citi to 55-57.

I was wondering how long it would take to buy a company where he isn't CEO.

When is the release date of the letter?

For selfIsh reaSons, I hope it's citi. They announced ahead of the Fed last year as well. Too bad yellen is taking two weeks longer than under Bernanke for those of us that are tired of our stakes in certain banks that are trading lower than 9x next year's earnings. Hopefully this will finally be a catalyst to make some money.

Another pass to weather. If the next report is like this that can't be good. Eventually all the prominent CEOs have to come out and say they are wrong about 3percent GDP this year and we are still at 2 -2.5. Maybe productivity is increasing or we will eventually get revised up. Dec was only revised up 1k. Is it just me or is mark Zandhi always terribly wrong on all his predictions? Jeez, a broken clock is right twice a day but that guy I wonder how he keeps his job.

"Banks like C and BAC today achieve their earnings with far less risk compared to then, and consequently I think there should be a risk/adjusted increase in the market P/E for the same dollar of earnings. " Bac is getting it at 12x earnings but nobody wants citi around 9x earnings. At least for now. I'm a bit surprised still no ccar date release. Last two years fed published around jan 29th. Maybe they won't do the two step release and they just announce all at once on march 7th.

I should probably turn my Ira over like Eric. Watching citi everyday is distracting me from my work. Down every day for two weeks. About 16 percent discount to tangible book. New ism number out and below expectations. Dimon, Moynihan, etc all think 3 percent GDP this year. IMF thinks global growth will increaese. disconnect to everyone saying economy is improving with 1200 point sell off in last couple of weeks.

"Comparing multiples to book or tangible book may not be the best alternative for Citi right now. If you instead look at price to basel 3 tier 1 capital used at Citicorp (i.e. excluding Holdings) and compare that to BAC and JPM, they are very similar (1.4x in all 3 cases). This makes sense considering that capital tied up at Holdings has a negative return now. However, this ignores the high probability that Holdings will break even in the near term as well as the pace of capital build up at Citicorp from earnings, DTA use and decline in Holdings RWA. Citi is on its way to massive over capitalization in the next 2-4 years and the stock price doesn't reflect it. This is perhaps reasonable given Citi's performance in the 2012 ccar (who knows if shareholders will get their hands on that excess capital) but it sill ignores the ~20% annual growth in basel 3 tier 1 capital that Citicorp can achieve in the next 3 years just by staying the course (i.e. using Wall Street consensus numbers, which assume modest earnings growth). As a side note my work relates to investing in EM and I'm from Argentina. The issues going on there are specific to the country, I don't think the chances of contagion are high, but we'll see." Thanks for your comments. I've seen estimates for 25 cent dividend and 5-7 billion in buybacks in March. They are estimating roa of 90-110 by next year so I'm assuming assuming holdings will be at break even by late next year. 2015 and beyond ccar should be very attractive.

I honestly don't know. It use to sell at multiples of book value but that won't ever happen again. It probable sold around the same multiple of bac and jpm pre 08.

It looks like cities max exposure to Argentina is 17 cents a share. They have a lot more exposure to Brazil and Mexico. That would be the time to get worried, if it spread. My comment about it not lasting more than 2 weeks is speculation of course as psychology can feed on itself. My earlier post was trying to wrap my head around the 25 percent discount to bac. If there is contagion with em I suppose that discount is warranted. Mexico seems to be doing quite well. Anyone on thew board follow EM closely? If so, what is the probability of contagion and things getting much worse?