MattR
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Posts posted by MattR
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I know that he blew up once. He said so in one podcast. That doesn't make him a bad manager. Given what he holds and the results that he got, shows that he is much better at risk management.
Everyone learns.
Munger basically blew up his Partnership as well. Do we say that he is a bad investor?
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On 12/20/2023 at 3:01 PM, Sweet said:
Agree that some of them are too expensive but there are a great many stocks not expensive. It’s a market of haves and have nots.Some of the big companies like MSFT are truly global beasts that aren’t tethered to the US economy in the same way many other companies in the SP-500 are.
THe market is as bifurcated as it was in 2000. Tech stocks are insanely expensive, and ex US and old industries are among the lowest valuations in history.
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15 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Idk but the “greed and euphoria” narrative really only seems paired with stocks going up. I don’t see much by the way of crazy positive sentiment in too many places. It still actually seems like the overriding emotions are skepticism and bitterness.
Doordash, Palantir, MongoDB, Duolingo, Affirm, Upstart, Carvana, Coinbase, Broadcom, Nvidia, Sentiment is that Apple and Microsoft never goes down.
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Just now, mattee2264 said:
If stocks are worth 20x earnings at 5% yields and 25 times earnings at 4% yields then not surprising why we are seeing big swings based on rate cutting expectations. Especially in growth stocks like Tesla and Nvidia where most of the value is in the terminal value and therefore very sensitive to discount rates.
But of course the above arithmetic assumes no change in earnings. If rate cuts are accompanied by falling earnings or slower growth then that is a negative valuation factor.
And I think the market is being a bit too optimistic in thinking that we can get lower inflation and lower rates and continue to grow at 3% a year. And if growth does slow to 0-1% then that is going to have a negative impact on corporate earnings and growth rates.
I mean sure, but we are talking about stocks trading at over 100x earnings here. So they already did not price in the 5% yields anyway.
PPI is negative today. Bad news is good news I guess.
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This market is completely insane. Tesla added 150b in market cap in less than 15 days, Nvda over 250b on basically no news. Every company with a terrible balance sheet is rising as though rates have already been cut.
At the same time rate cut expectations are for March. We had the same this year as well, but rates rose and stock rose in tandem.
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Seeking Alpha has gone down slowly in quality and rapidly since mid 2022. Many of the deep value guys or bankruptcy articles don't get accepted anymore and it seems to focus more on clicks than good ideas
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11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
I thought studies shown that the Nifty Fifty performed about the same that the SP500. I guess in a way that shows they were efficiently priced.
What is the best performed form the NF list - WMT?
I think it should be Philip Morris.
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I am a bit biased, because I write my own substack (though free, and will always stay that way - but maybe I add a support tier as a few have asked). I was subscribed to quite a lot of them, several paid - but I often stopped subscribing to them. IMO a regular schedule creates as you already pointed out, content gaps and these are not easily filled with content.
I was subscribed to around 50 substacks, not it is just around 15.
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Chat GPT4 is getting plugins. So people can develop plugins for it. Already exisiting one is Wolfram Alpha. Chat GPT4 was bad with math, but now it wont. Still in Beta, but we should get it in the next few months as plus user.
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14 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
RVCapital it seems suffered from kind of style drift.........he started of as value-ish, then GARP.......but GARP worked so well during ZIRP in the late 2010's & his returns so good.....that he went from growth at a reasonable price to growth at any price and ended up owning Carvana in the end with shit loads of debt and growth that had to happen to keep the whole enterprise afloat......difference between RVCapital and Clifford Sosin's/CAS Parters.....who i think RVCapital coat-tailed into Carvana is that at least Rob didn't let Carvana get to be 60% of the fund......and so he'll live to fight another day.
Regardless Rob has shown an ability to make the right calls on idiosyncratic ideas. The stuff he does with emerging managers is also to be commended. I would say the price for long-term outperformance in a fund managed by competent manager is occasional & sometimes spectacular underperformance....its to be expected when you hold things that don't look like the index & the cruelty that is mark-to-Dec 31st which by luck alone makes some managers look like geniuses or losers (for a short time).
CVNA, CACC, WIX, CRM, TRUP. These are either or were extremely overvalued, partly fraudulent (CVNA, CACC, TRUP in trying to pass as subscription instead of insurance). Or they have no moat (WIX) . It is hard to make a worse portfolio IMO
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- Ecopetro
- BTU
- RIG
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My best year so far. +144.7%. Gains were mostly through BTU , YPF, UAN and BTI calls and through the short side being short Carvana, Tesla, and pretty much all the ark names. Hope to not have a 30% loss next year, but probabilities are high that it will happen.
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11 hours ago, ValueArb said:
ChatGPT is terrible and its based on a type of "AI" that is a dead end that will never work for the vast majority of serious applications.
To the first point, I'm a software engineer and i've seen code its generated, and its basically a templating engine. It is entirely useless for the work I do. Anyone who has used it for other tasks realizes it's "confidently wrong" in far too many use cases.
To the second point, Benedict Evans said it best.
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I am in DevOps and it is perfect for being a templating enginge and exactly what I need most of the time and especially takes away the work I hate most of the time (setting up the basics)
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16 hours ago, jfan said:
Has anyone used openbb.co?
Yeah, it looks good on first site, but I am much faster using custom search engines in chrome. For example typing sec and the ticker brings me to the sec filings, tv brings me to tradingview. Sadly it does not work for Tikr, but for many others its perfect and awesome.
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On 6/21/2022 at 12:55 AM, tytthus said:
Quick read from The Transcript of some Klarman quotes from the interview
https://thetranscript.substack.com/p/seth-klarman-interview
read some, and maybe you’ll want to invest an hour in the video. (I didn’t)
I think thinking fast and slow is the most overrated book of all time. It should just be a blog post with a few examples. The summary of the book, is better than the book itself.
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6 hours ago, ValueMaven said:
@no_free_lunchinteresting ... you dont have a free hour to listen to one of the greatest investors of all time talk about the current state of markets .. ?? The talk is highly informative and insightful. I'd suggest carving out time if you can!
His interviews are basically the same since a decade. How is he one of the greatest investors of all time? He did not come even close to beat the market the last 10 years.
He doesn't republish his book despite huge demand.
Druckenmiller's interview at Sohn this year was much more insightful.
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3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
This guy comes for them?
That is why I don't buy US oil companies, just coal. My oil exposure is outside the US in Canada, Brazil, Peru and Argentinia. There are still risks, but those are priced in mostly.
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5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Except its not the end of quarter. Anyways, energy has become a momentum trade with the boat fully loaded at one side. Have you seen single bear lately? Anyways the @Spekulatius rules says that whatever everyone expects is not going to happen.
I think energy prices are going back to where they were before Ukraine eventually, since the Russian oil still makes it to market just through other channels.
NG however should stay elevated since the Russian supply to Europe is dwindling and eventually is going to disappear and need to be replaced from elsewhere.
Contrary to crude, the Russians cannot just redirect their NG elsewhere, their NG will remain stranded for quite some time, until they can build infrastructure to sent it to China etc.
Q2 ends at 30.06. Historically the selling has started 2 weeks before the end.
While energy has gained some momentum, it is still far from boat fully loaded. I agree that oil might have some downturn, but that is a mixture of a bit of hype and window dressing. Look at the inflows. ARKK had inflows of a single day, that were higher than the xle inflows of several months. Look at the hedge funds, they are still deep into tech and FANGs.
Oil was around 90$ before the war. Given the current valuations of the oil stocks, they would still be very cheap. Yeah everyone on Twitter calls for $300 oil, but the oil companies don't need or even want that.
32 minutes ago, mcliu said:Current developed country policy is to ban ICE vehicles by 2030 and eventually kill the fossil fuel industry.
No company will want to make large long-term investments in this type of environment. Investors are also demanding quick return of capital for the same reason.
In addition, the hurdle for re-investment continues to go up with higher interest rates and just plain lack of financing as banks also pursue ESG goals.
A major recession will likely crimp demand in the short-term, but given the fragile political situation and despite the tough talk from Powell, I think countries are likely to ease far sooner and run negative real-rate policy than to suffer a major downturn.
I don't think it will, and I think we will see the ICE bans being lifted soon, due to the even higher prices on the metals. Also there is so much use for fossil fuels currently, its crazy. Look at the 2020 oil usage. The whole world locked down and there was a 9% drop in oil demand. Actually crazy.
But I agree that re-investments are impaired through policies and ESG goals.
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15 hours ago, shru said:
Why oil stocks are crashing so fast despite oil price is still around $110?
oil stock party seems to be over.
End of Quarter window dressing. This pattern was noticeably in BTU for the last two year, seems it has spilled over other energy stock as well.
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I am getting bullish precious metals. I believe that the market prices in a lot of rate hikes - but I think the fed won't do them and inflation is here to stay. They can't break the system, and a lot would break at 5% fed fund rate.
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Found that on Twitter:
This engineer who thinks the AI is sentient probably also thinks the stripper at his bachelor party really liked him
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If you like history, the Hardcore History episodes are awesome. Wrath of Khans and the one about World War 1 are crazy good. Each episode is about 4h and one series is about 20.
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15 hours ago, spartansaver said:
Starter in BROS
Ouch
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4 hours ago, formthirteen said:
Anyone know what happened to Value Line Inc's stock (VALU)? It has more than doubled since Oct 2021... Seems like a great business, even if it's not growing.
Maybe it was this tweet that resurrected the stock from the dead, posted by someone on Twitter who is "exposing bad companies"
Still not a great business, but he ignored the cash and that they have stable customers (mainly libraries). Now it is pretty highly valued, but around 20 it was cheap
Kuppy on Inflation
in General Discussion
Posted
His partners yanked the money out and it was only through big wrestling that he convinced them to stay on for one more year, in which he had a good result.
If the partners yank their capital because of the drawdowns, your fund has blown up.