MattR
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Posts posted by MattR
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45 minutes ago, n.r98 said:
Humble opinion:
I admire Pabrai's generosity and am thankful for the amazing yet simple investing lessons he has taught over the years. But sometimes, I think he shares a little too much and unwittingly drills those ideas into his head; "I am a cheapskate", "P/E 1 or 2", "I'm a spawner guy now". He admires Nick Sleep a lot and one of Nick Sleep's weapons was a conscientious awareness of not pounding dogma into his own head. Heck even terms like "value investor", "growth investor", "microcap investor" are ideologies and dogmas that may eventually slice one in the throat. Ultimately, one is just looking to do intelligent things and navigate this amazing puzzle capitalism has provided us with.
That is a great point. I recently heard a great talk from Robert Sapolsky, a behavioral biologist, that we like to think in buckets because it is easier - he gives several examples of people who lived in buckets despite being several of the most respected scientist of the 20th century. Everyone has the tendency to live in a bucket, and it is incredibly hard to break out of it.
That is what I think ultimately makes Warren Buffet so successful. There were times he bought silver, where he bought cigar-buts, where he bought compounder and where he bought growth. But one has to work against the natural tendency.
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4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
I guess “cinches” have replaced the “spawners”.
I really enjoy his talks and his ideas, but as an investment manager he seems to find a new hammer every few months and now wants to nail every stock with it. There are some stocks in his portfolio like Shinoken that seem great, but looking at his track record, chances are high that he sells it before it becomes a great business.
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Hello,
Mohnish recently had a great Q&A at Indiana University:
Lots of great insights and ideas there. I summarized the whole thing for those who like to read rather than listen: https://roiss.substack.com/p/takeaways-from-mohnish-pabrais-q
I personally really enjoyed his outline and the search for cinch companies. I find it very hard to find cinch companies that are not expensive. Google, Costco, Apple and Microsoft are all great but they rightfully demand a premium. Anyone has found great companies who are cheap?
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14 minutes ago, Lakesider said:
He was getting so frustrated at the lack of basic accounting knowledge of the students quite entertaining to watch.
It was so hilarious.
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Hello,
I recently transcibed the excellent guest lecture from Li Lu. I also got the stock information charts from his chinese book. Hope you enjoy it.
https://roiss.substack.com/p/li-lus-investing-masterclass-at-columbia
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4 minutes ago, jobyts said:
Is that because he thinks the cloners get some free ride for the hard work he has done, or is it because he thinks cloners - without independent thinking - will not succeed in the investment game? Has he ever mentioned the reason in any of his previous interviews?
The second one and he said that in several interviews. He argues that if you don't have deep understanding of why you know something it will be difficult to hold when something comes up. It also hinders you to load up when it goes on sale, or when it is a sale and it isn't. If he bought something during the Corona crash, he had a good reason, but the price for him might already be to expensive by the time he had to file the appropriate documents. It also not show you why he sells positions and why he keeps them.
He generally is a big advocate for independent thinking and not for cloning. Personally I think cloning has it's place as part of a portfolio - but it shouldn't be the main driving force behind it. I mostly use the fillings as ideas that have been pre-screened, not as gospel.
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53 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:
Thank you for this massive effort. I quit listening about 30 minutes in because I couldn't stand hearing him clear his throat one more time (I know, I'm an ass).
His observations on China are brilliant.
Notably, he never once mentioned Alibaba?
That is mainly why i decided to transcribe it. Pausing every few seconds and transcribing was easier than listening with him clearing his throat all the time. I hope you can get something out of it. Li Lu generally doesn't talk about his position. He doesn't like people cloning him and is an advocate for independent thinking. -
For anyone interested, I transcribed the whole thing:
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13 minutes ago, Ulverski said:
I'm aware of the risks. I'm Polish. We were 'Russophobes' before it became european trend.
Don't know this stories, but the one with Yukos and Khodorkovsky isn't probably far away.
Insanity is also investing in China. Yet Dalio, Munger, Buffet and Li Lu are doing it. Top tier investors will tell you that investing in US market at those levels is insanity too. Not to mention USD devaluation etc. IMHO there is no safe haven anymore (not from my perspective). The only thing I can do is to look for good businesses that I feel comfortable about.
If 1$ will be 100 rubles than great. PhosAgro is selling in USD.
Thanks for the info on Both businesses. Being from Austria, I am also sceptical of Russia, but I still am invested in Gazprom.
Will buy more British American Tobacco today.
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On 3/26/2021 at 4:46 PM, Ulverski said:
Hi!
Added to PhosAgro (LSE: PHOR) and Flow Traders (AMS: FLOW)
Also few days ago I bought small position in iShares ETF on Turkey. Just a test drive, we will see.
Hey, do you have more information on both? Their numbers look great.
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From what I've read on this forum lately, it appears I might currently be the only person here crazy enough to directly short Tesla. I have been adding long-dated OTM puts on TSLA as the risk vs. reward on these options is absolutely beautiful, in my humble opinion.
I am also directly short tesla, but it is just a 2% position of my portfolio -
Anyone looking at this market?
Does anyone know the name of the warehouse business in Turkey that Pabrai Funds owns?
Ticker Symbol is RYSAS. Down 10% today.
If the situation in Turkey continues and Pabrai doesn´t sell, I will start a position.
My strategy is to clone Pabrai here because there are no annual reports or financial statements in English, is all in Turkish Language
Google Translate does a pretty decent job at translating the annual report pdf
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Sold BAM, 105% net long now.
My US holdings are down to Berkshire, Altria, Berry Global, Asbury Automotive and Fiserv... Resilient and liquid stuff that ESG-investors despise with lots of buyback capacity incoming and a decent counterbalance to my illiquid smallcaps in Europe and Hong Kong... I'm always fully invested, but I'm speculating a bit on macro with buys on margin, and I can't say I like the current environment, so I'm dialing down... Considering how insanely crazy some stuff is priced, and possibly risk of inflation and higher rates, I find it quiet interesting that one can still buy something like BTI at close to a 9 pct. dividend yield with SD expected EPS growth going forward. Altria had a decent run since I got back in, but it's still cheap for one of the best businesses in the world. I have a close to taxfree account which I've stuffed with anti-ESG, high dividend paying stuff like Altria, BTI, WMB, ENB and KNOP. It's basically 50-50 tobacco and NG pipelines/shuttle tankers.
Why do you sold BAM?
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Full 10% new Position in Shinoken Group Co Ltd. 8909 (Japan)
Not a 10% position for me, but I also bought it. Great company
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I bought shares in 8050 Seiko Holdings just below current prices, maybe 1750 yen per share. Trades maybe around 70% of book, not including any current losses in the equity holdings, and something around 9-10X earnings. This is sort of on the more expensive side for a Japanese name, but the company has recognizable brand names in the popular line of Seiko watches, a significant export business, a number of new premium offerings, and pays a good dividend. The company's ROIC has been decent, and free cash has gone over the last number of years towards paying down debt. It's reasonable I think and at the floor of the 5-year average valuations.
They seem to have a lot of debt and not really high cashflow. Why did you decide to invest in them? I really like their watches so I would really love to know.
My stated reason was to buy at the lower end of the historical P/B and P/average earnings and all of that, but clearly I was just looking for a 25% loss in a market where everything else has just flown up
With the rise of smartwatches I can't see them having a great future. What would be the catalyst for the company to go back to it's higher valuations over the last 5 years ? I just wanted to have some more context to your investment since I am not able to find out how it would go back up again.
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Great find. Thank you. This group is fast growing with strong combined ratios. Frankly, the insurance bench below Ajit is extremely strong.
Yes it is scary how strong it is. I started to transfer a lot of my "growth" stock money into Berkshire, most of them reached valuations far beyond my targets and I think that most people currently underestimate the strenght of berkshires insurance and railway business
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I bought shares in 8050 Seiko Holdings just below current prices, maybe 1750 yen per share. Trades maybe around 70% of book, not including any current losses in the equity holdings, and something around 9-10X earnings. This is sort of on the more expensive side for a Japanese name, but the company has recognizable brand names in the popular line of Seiko watches, a significant export business, a number of new premium offerings, and pays a good dividend. The company's ROIC has been decent, and free cash has gone over the last number of years towards paying down debt. It's reasonable I think and at the floor of the 5-year average valuations.
They seem to have a lot of debt and not really high cashflow. Why did you decide to invest in them? I really like their watches so I would really love to know.
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^One has to decide if it's worthwhile to listen and watch also.
One has to wonder what Mr. Munger thought of the interviewer. He was unusually warm (for a few short seconds) at the conclusion. These days, one has to wonder also if this is/was his last interview. He is truly a fascinating person.
What did he mean by: "I think we’re very near the edge of playing with fire."?
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I think we are near the edge in terms of the market being overvalued. All the indicators of the s&p 500 are in the all times high (schiller pe, buffet indicator) and that while the real economy is nowhere near to recover. Most of Europe is in a second lockdown of some sort, and even the US now sees steady growth of cases. I feel like the market is way ahead of itself and a lot of people will get burnt in the downturn.
Mohnish Pabrai Q&A at Indiana University.
in General Discussion
Posted
That I think was the strangest decision of all. He bought it and a few days later he sold it, no idea why - he said he realized it won't work out.