Longnose
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Posts posted by Longnose
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I continue to add to BTC on the way down. Its not going anywhere and will come back up eventually.
I haven't added anything POS for a long time. I still hold a fair amount of AVAX because I play and develop a little in that chain. But its value has been decimated.
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9 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:
Yeah those 7.3s were great, like the Cummins, they put them in everything including larger class trucks, bus, ambulance etc. Proven platform and not uncommon to see them in the 300-400k mi odometer reading without major mechanical issues.
The newer diesels are a totally different ball game. For reference my 1997 is rated at 185hp and 400ftlbs tq...those numbers are laughable by todays standards, most are double those numbers now. Alot of changes and improvements to get those numbers. The 1997 12 valve is 100% mechanical, literally needs a power wire for starter and fuel shut off solenoid and it will run, fuel pump, injection pump, everything mechanical, very simple.
I rode in the 6.7 my buddy has before the "incident"...the thing was a beast, besides the obvious comforts and tech...the torque is insane its like 475hp and over 1000 ft lbs of torque...always good to let a couple years of a new platform run so they work the kinks out and gives time for buyer feedback to come in and the design gremlins to show up.
All my trips west have primarily been camping....in order to fish! I'm not gonna say that MT is any better than CO but its def not any worse!
A funny story that would be too long to go into detail, myself and two friends headed out to MT in college on a break for some camping and fishing. Road trip out, excited, long story short..in MN/WI we have land measured in acres...if you've got 100 thats pretty decent depending on the area and if its for farming or recreation...well in MT they own "sections"..couple young college guys making their way through MT and backcountry sites, working the streams etc on our way...we legitimately got a little turned around on some unlabeled back roads following a lousy map (phone gps had no service and were dead so we went old school) we had splurged and rented a fire lookout for a night (I think $25/night) and thought we were following the map to the general area and then would park the car and hike the 5ish miles back into the cabin...we left the truck and headed out...couldnt find it and it was getting dark so we ended up sleeping next to a stream in the middle of BF nowhere and in the morning made our way back to the truck to set out for our next location...when we got to the truck we were met by the local Sherriff informing us that we were trespassing (we literally had a map in our hands walking out) told us to follow him into town to sort it out. Ended up that some guy that had a mansion on the top of a mountain (that I saw and legit wondered how they even got a concrete truck or crane up there) saw us and reported us and wanted us prosecuted..it was like something out a movie...we literally walked on the property miles from this mansion off in the distance..but he basically owned an entire valley as far as you could see, multiple sections...no talking to him, no reasoning with the Sherriff...our options were $600 out of each of us and be on our way or sit two nights in jail till Monday morning when we could see the judge..after an hour in the dept, my buddy calling his law school fiancé and me calling my state trooper buddies back home... he finally figured out we were broke college kids and offered $100 bail and promise to come back Monday. We did and my two buddies pled not guilty...at the advice of a local lawyer I called and other resources I pled my case and threw myself at the mercy of the court (the court was straight out of an old western, swinging saloon doors to enter the court room, wood church pew seating and half the town must have showed up for the live judge judy entertainment...the judge sentenced me to $300 in fines and 6 months probation!!! I went to the clerk of court and set up payment...asked what I could afford and I told her $10/mo, so for YEARS I would mail a check to Sweet Grass County MT for $10 and they would mail me back a receipt...sure the postage cost me a little but at the time it was my only option and I didnt want to give it to them easy. Clerk also told me it happens every summer, usually not a big deal but some of the big shots were sticklers about out of towners on their land. She also said Tom Brokaw had a place in the area etc (not saying he was THE guy).
MT state statute reads that it is your responsibility to know where you are at all times...doesnt have to be posted...doesn't matter if you are lost etc..no excuses..
Never would have happened in MN/WI.
So always know where you're at lol, I left out a ton of other things from that adventure, some amazing memories.
That is a hell of a story! All that harassment for 10$ per month.
My wife's family owns a ranch as large or larger than the one you mention in your story in the mountains of Utah. We regularly deal with trespassers although we've never prosecuted any. Most leave with a polite reminder that its private property. Last year someone ignored a turn around request and took a different road and rolled their van down into the river. They were lucky the family member that asked them to turn around was still nearby because it would have been a 10+ mile long walk back to the main road and chance of cell service in between is very low.
Also have had search and rescue called in the winter on snowmobilers trespassing and getting stuck up there 2 years back. Usually one story per year.
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I just took my car in for some maintenance. They recommended according to mileage that the spark plugs be changed. They wanted $1000 to do spark plugs because the plugs on this car are under the manifold...
I have a friend who restores classic cars and loves to work on old cars. But only drives brand new cars with extended warranties and as soon as the warranty is set to expire he trades it in for a new one. New cars are more computer than machine and its not worth anyone's time to work on them.
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9 hours ago, randomep said:
He pretty much turned over his entire portfolio from what I can see?? That is crazy? no?
Hes been very active and flipping the portfolio almost every quarter for the past year or two.
I really like looking through burrys stuff but hes not playing the long game right now with current market conditions.
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10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
I mentioned avoiding thinking of your own situation for that reason.
Fair enough going back to the original thought. Does someone's net worth translate to their societal value?
Short answer No.
But does wealth amplify an individuals impact on society? Yes.
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7 hours ago, Sweet said:
Depends what you mean by value.
I think perhaps you mean productive… or something else?
I’d say across society, and on many metrics, the most valuable people are mothers and fathers.
By and large unpaid work but vital to society.
mothers and fathers - thats a real answer.
I had a great upbringing with good parents. They had almost not financial literacy and did enough to get by. I can attribute much of my success to having solid examples that laid a good foundation for me to continue upon. I have some friends who grew up in broken homes who would have paid a lot of money to have a different outcome from their mothers and fathers.
I don't think enviroment determines a persons success but it sure influences a lot of out comes. IE (buffet's genetic lottery quote).
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14 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:
Loaded up on Tenneco over the last few days (merger arb with a huge spread)
Wrote a whole bunch of BRK puts which are underwater. Will buy them back and write more aggressively to be cash flow positive
How confident do you feel about the deal going through??
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- High of about $1100 in 2013 to a low of about $200 in 2015.
- High of about $20K in 2017 to a low of about $3200 in 2018.
- High of about $68K in 2021 to a low of ?? in ??.
Ive seen several sources expecting the $12K mark. Ive personally just been dollar costing into it and dont really care about current value.
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BTC is very different from all the other shit coins out there and adoption is happening worldwide. I strongly believe it will become the currency of the internet and fuel a global economy. The rules are written. It is truly decentralized. You cant change the rules of the game as long as I hold a node.
Parsads comments about blockchain being real and useful and shaping the future. IMO thats all the Ethereum side of things. ETH, AVAX, SOL are are all serious Layer 1 projects that will shape future blockchain business transactions. The "currency" value of these I believe is pretty bleh. I have small money staked (mining POS) in these just to cover transaction fees.
Totally different worlds.
All the stable coins failing are people bending the rules of the game and abusing the system. Never trusted a get rich quick scheme.
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I have a few small positions in some penny stocks that are this way. to not affect the price always use limit orders and you'll need to buy over time. Look at the bid ask spreads. Usually, youll only be able to buy small blocks unless there is a big seller out there.
Greg is also right, Almost always you need to look at these as investments where youll lock up the money for a period of time with expectation of a large return down the road. (more than 6 months often a year or 2) DD is key in these illiquid stocks. You sell when liquidity arrives and your thesis becomes realized.
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2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
I dont think GM is worth owning. Look at what its done the past decade. The excuses, the questionable investments. They cut the dividend to be cautious and to my knowledge still haven't reinstated it. And even when the bulls though it finally was having its day, it essentially turned out to be a mouse fart meme stock bump, in its entirety of maybe 50-60% off its decade long range which is nothing to write home about. Just in general a terrible business run by bureaucrats who now want to be an ESG stock which....generally tends to be bad for profitability.
I questioned this one too but Bill made some decent arguments that I havent looked at and want to look further at.
He stated every car is presold for the next 2 years. Better margins on Electric Vehicles. And current Earnings ratio about 5-6 with a historical of 8-10.
With that baseline it does seem like it could be ready for a realignment. Probably not a massive swing but a decent bump. Which is why I plan on doing my own DD to determine what price I would sell at.
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Listened to this episode of TIP over the long weekend.
From the 8 min mark to about the 12 min mark Bill makes mention of some companies he thinks are strong market bets right now. I've added it to my homework list to take a deeper look at these 4 companies.
OMF - One Main Financial
GM - General Motors
TMHC - Taylor Morrison Home Company
BHC / BLCO - Bausch & Loam
I was wondering if anyone else has identified these as strong opportunities.
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@Blugolds11 @Pelagic - The caliber of contestants rises with every season in my opinion. My favorite 2 seasons so far were the Arctic. While the people there struggled it wasn't a full on starve fest. This past season (8) was hard to watch since no one was getting any food. Just watching people waste away is frustrating.
This first episode of season 9 was awesome we have some real high caliber contestants. Also, people are already getting game which could set us up for a long run of contestants.
I would love to go out and do a 2 week version of the show by myself. Worst comes to worst im confident I can starve for 2 weeks. My wife has asked If I would ever want to go on Alone and while I have most of the skills that I think would allow me to be a very strong contestant even as an introvert I enjoy the occasional social interaction...
Anyway I love alone. About the only show I get crazy stoked to watch.
Also been watching stranger things 4. - Every season just gets darker...
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Alone Season 9.
Let the hunger games begin!
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5 minutes ago, Parsad said:
They've adopted BTC solely for the purpose of bypassing fiat based currency. If you are a country that nationalizes foreign corporations, you want to relieve yourself of being dependent on fiat currencies when you eventually get sanctioned. I'm sure Russia wishes they had adopted BTC more readily in the present circumstances.
But, most of the world will want to be able to transact through stable fiat currencies. Many of those looking to BTC will find more durable, stable variants later on as cryptocurrencies develop. Can you make a calculated bet on BTC right now without the possibility of losing significant capital long-term? Remember, rule #1...don't lose money! Cheers!
Your statement just made me more bullish.
I havent sold any BTC. Net buyer here.
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2 hours ago, Parsad said:
Hi SD, I know all that. But it is almost inevitable that governments will crack down on crypto in current form, purely to deter the underground economy that has grown enormously and money laundering. Governments are always late to the party, but they eventually get to the party and ruin it once they realize that too many people are having fun.
At some point, fiat currencies backed by tax revenues or gold, will create their own digital currencies using blockchain. More stable, easily convertible, trackable for tax purposes and a deterrent to the current base of crypto. Cheers!
Or supply demand will continue to play out as demand grows from adoption of small countries like Venezuela who made it their national currency. Fixed supply and lots of people who can benefit from a commodity like BTC.
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56 minutes ago, Parsad said:
This is all great, but when you go to spend your bitcoin next week at Overstock.com, and it's at $15K, how are you ahead of the game?
And then Overstock.com sells you a Rolex this week for one BTC, but then next week they are adding to their inventory and BTC is now at $15K...suddenly they are paying twice as much for the same Rolexes they were selling last week!
Luna is a perfect example of why this won't work. It was backed by BTC, and then we saw what happened. If they had pegged it to fiat currencies or gold, it would be around still.
Again, I'm not against blockchain based crypto...I've been following it longer than 99% of people...but all I'm saying is that the stuff we have today is shit! It's AOL, not Google. Properly designed crypto will be extremely disruptive, stable and functional as a replacement for fiat currency.
Cheers!
I still think BTC is the winner for digital currency (gold).
All the other cryptos in the ETH world slash proof of stake are up in the air. I think that whole world serves a different purpose (smart contract land) that has lots to be proven. I like to play in this space because i find it crazy fascinating but 99.9% of that space is shitcoins.
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I cant take my gold to overstock.com and buy something. But I can buy stuff on overstock.com with BTC.
Moving my gold from my saftey deposit box to another location is risky and expensive. Sending my BTC to any other wallet anywhere in the world is quick and safe.
If the government tries to seize my assets (god forbid) they may find my gold unless its buried somewhere. Only I know the key to my BTC wallet.
While there are only a few places i can spend BTC right now this is expanding. Think of how many small vendors use SQ. Eventually Dorsey will roll out BTC transactions on the lightning network to SQ vendors. Youll be able to spend your BTC at every SQ vendor. Facebook is building it into Venmo.
The old days we traded gold because we needed money. Eventually we went to paper currency backed by gold because it was a pain to carry gold. now we carry digital bank balances backed by gold. but is it really backed by gold anymore? when we print trillions of dollars overnight we expand the disconnect.
IMO bitcoin has the potential to become global online currency. Its hard to mine, there is a finite amount of it, and it functions as a digital currency across borders.
EDIT: The reason im a buyer of BTC is not because i believe BTC to be producing value but because we are so early in the BTC adoption and spread. The amount of people with bitcoin wallets is a fraction of the population. So as BTC adoption spreads and more people start buying demand will drive price up. BTC is a digital commodity there will only ever be 21M bitcoin and we got a lot of people who own no bitcoin. As the younger generation and world wide populations realize that BTC is a better store of value than rubles, yaun, euros, pesos, dollars. The influx of people will drive its prices up.
To note i still believe equities are better from the sense of income producing assets. But shit I would rather have bitcoin than dollars if I could spend my bitcoin everywhere I can spend a dollar. Because then its mine, and not the banks promise that its there.
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I am still a bitcoin bull. Ive been buying weekly under the 30K mark and feeling great about it.
Id rather own BTC than gold.
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MU 2024 Leaps $60 strike
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Yea hes been concentrated and in tech i'd bet he got hammered.
I really like looking through his 13F's as I like to look at anyone who runs concentrated conviction bets. But im more of a value guy at heart so I always only nibble at tech stuff.
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I've been enjoying Moon Knight on Disney+. Reminds me of the old mummy movies a little bit.
Also, Not sure if anyone here has read the Jason Bourne books. But in the books Jason Bourne more as like a multiple personality disorder between David Webb, Jason Bourne, & Delta. When I watch Moon Knight and seeing the way they portray the multiple personalities this is how I wish the Bourne movies had been. Since I enjoyed the books so much.
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I have been slowly adding to my BTC position. I have a side project where Ive been exploring using crypto as a rewards program for small brands that dont / cant invest in the infrastructure to support an inhouse rewards program. While I was doing that I went to Overstock since they have been accepting payments in BTC for years now. It was kind of cool to toy with purchasing real products and services with BTC.
I was reading some articles about SQ - Block as they are starting to invest very heavily in BTC. There was a statement about BTC becoming the currency of the internet. To me this makes more and more sense. The more layer2 networks that get developed to support and reduce frictional costs BTC's ease will be incredible. Lots of ecommerce will gravitate as they get tired of paying 3% to Visa/MC. BTC is virtual gold.
Personally, I find the Ethereum based smart contract stuff more interesting. But BTC is becoming a clear winner from adoption, security, and infrastructure when it comes to something that could be considered a currency or asset.
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7 hours ago, Gregmal said:
He and Kevin Spacey probably two of my all time favorites for these type of roles
I am such a sucker for Kevin Spacey. He's by far one of my favorite actors.
I love his popular stuff like American Beauty, 21, and Usual Suspects
But I really love some of his lesser knowns. Like K-PAX , Pay it forward, Moon, & Shrink
Also a big fan of Ryan Gosling and Sigourney Weaver.
Michael Burry’s current holdings
in General Discussion
Posted
Ive made a little money by looking at what he bought that has gone lower. His ideas are solid but sometimes hes early. Never bought anything of his that had gone up at time of posting.