Longnose
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Posts posted by Longnose
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I pay for both TIKR and SA.
I use TIKR for its screener.
I use SA for getting top level look at a company and reading through opinions on companies. Whats the bull case? whats the bear case? Who has the opposite opinion of me and do they have valid arguments? I like it for this kind of crap.
Then if it passes this filter I go back to TIKR to evaluate the financials further. Cant beat TIKR for the price when it comes to financial evaluation tools IMO.
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Ran into a whitest kids you know clip a few days ago. Funny time rap...
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54 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
https://protos.com/defi-protocol-aave-faces-bad-debt-and-centralized-points-of-failure/
I've mentioned Aave's strength through the failure of centralized lenders multiple times here, so am shocked to see articles like this.
I feel I'm familiar with the protocol, but maybe someone here is more so?
Aren't all of Aave's loans over collateralized and immediately liquidated when debt covenants are breached? I thought that was part of why they survived the prior fallouts was because they auto-liquidated collateral before anyone else could act.
For anyone else that is familiar with the protocol, is this article just total FUD or does Aave actually extend credit on an uncollateralized basis?
First flaw i see that would set off a red flag for me.
AAVE currently boasts more than $6 billion in crypto value on its platform. Its so-called ‘V2’ implementation currently has $5.5 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL), a commonly-cited (albeit easy-to-manipulate) measure of DeFi protocols. That TVL includes $5.16 billion in ETH and ETH-based tokens, $669 million in wrapped ether (WETH), and $546 million in wrapped bitcoin (WBTC).
Wrapped BTC and Wrapped ETH are not real BTC or ETH. The old saying from the BTC space. Not your keys not your BTC.
Wrapping it is a way to allow trading of BTC on a different protocol such as ETH or an ETH based subnet. IMO there is a high likely hood that whatever is "wrapped" here is at very high risk of not being there when someone goes looking for it.
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16 hours ago, UK said:
I took a bunch of time to learn how to develop crypto stuff. I strongly agree with ackman here. I see a future of businesses that will create tokens that have lots of interesting applications. Regardless of all the current noise. There will be lots of crypto projects developed in the future that will continue to provide value to businesses of the future.
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1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:
SBF has had some very interesting interviews recently .. in one of them he gives a 'black box' example.
To paraphrase the mechanics
Put 100 BTC into a box (At 30K/BTC, value is 3,000,000). The box issues 3,000,000 'Box Coin' ... valued at $1 each. 20% of the coin are air-dropped to create buzz/trading incentive, 40% are sold for cash at an average $1.25, and 40% are retained by the box founders. The 1,200,000 (40%) 'Box Coin' are sold for $1,500,000 in cash, and the cash paid out to the BTC contributors.
The box has a 'value' of $3,750,000 (3M 'box coin' @ 1.25) supported by 100 BTC valued at 30K ($3,000,000) and 750K of capitalized 'buzz' (3.75-3.00M) - or thin air. The BTC contributors are out the 100 BTC worth 3M, up 1.5M in cash, and up 1,200,000 (40% retention) 'Box Coin' worth 1.5M. Same 3M asset on the contributors books, but now it's a bar-bell of 1.5M cash + 1.5M shitecoin.
Repeat BTC contributions and air-drops dilute the holding 300%, raise the original founders holding to 3,600,000 'Box Coin' (3x1.2M) and raise the price of 'box coin' to $3.00. Higher, because early buyers of 'box coin' at $1.25 are selling for > a double, and telling their friends via social media that it's free money!; network effect driving Ponzi characteristics.
The original BTC contributors are now out the 100 BTC worth 3M, up 1.5M in cash, and up 3,600,000 (40% retention) 'Box Coin' worth 10.8M. Now the asset on the contributors books, is 1.5M cash + 10.8M shitecoin. The higher 'Box Coin' goes the wealthier they seem to be - BUT the more of it is just capitalized 'buzz'. That 10.8M of shitecoin is only supported by 40 BTC (40% of the original 100 contributed), and actually worth 1.2M.
However, repeat a few times and it becomes hard to distinguish between the real and funny money; particularly if the founders/'box coin' holders are not overly financially literate. Mania.
Every time a new product is sold via a 'skimming' market penetration policy, the seller is doing the same thing; capitalizing the buzz around a cool and new product - that you too can have!; for a price well above what the product will sell at once we start selling it in volume. Normal course business.
The rest of it is just greed and delusion. Ride of a lifetime while it lasts, but eventually the punch bowl runs dry, there are margin calls that we cannot meet, and we go bankrupt. Cleans the slate, and allows the gamblers to go around a 2nd, 3rd, 4th time, etc., etc.
Different PoV.
SD
like the big short...
Its dog shit wrapped in cat shit.
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14 minutes ago, LC said:
Sorry if a dumb question, but how does bitcoin solve for extending credit and managing the associated credit risk?
It doesnt solve for credit. But it does solve for a digital cash transaction without middlemen.
Download a Muun Wallet on your phone post your lightning network address and ill send you 100 sats (0.017 USD). It'll settle immediately and you'll see it in your wallet. No credit or middle men involved. My wallet to yours.
If i had a reason to pay you $1M worth of BTC i could send $1M worth also near instantaneous.
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19 minutes ago, Castanza said:
What gives BTC value?
scarcity?
Because in the crypto world, scarcity is no longer scarce. Anyone can stand up a new coin and call it valuable.
Everything hinges on psychological adoption over time.
It's the same reasons a Van Gough painting holds value vs some other one off LSD fueled finger painting hanging on your local coffee shop wall.
BTC has to accomplish psychological adoption of the masses to hold value. I think most people underestimate how difficult that is.
Adoption is happening.
El Salvador made it legal tender. Addtionally, even after this whole FTX debacle he is still defending BTC.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/el-salvador-president-bukele-says-bitcoin-is-the-opposite-of-ftx
Its scarce, its easy to transmit and make payments, using the lightning network it very cheap to transact in, its secure and proof of work only enhances the security of the system.
Adoption will only continue to grow. I believe it will grow faster outside the US. But eventually it will become mainstream. When INTL businesses start realizing I can transfer a million dollars plus from singapore to El Salvador for .02 cents with instant settlement and no middlemen that will become an advantage. When small time shops start questioning why they are paying 3% to mastercard and visa when they can get instant settlement for 0.02 cents on thier $10 T-shirt sale.
The tourist in El Salvador feels safer because he doesn't need to carry cash to transact. He can pay with a global currency his wallet to recipient.
This all feels like value to me. While here in the US we say Meh.... the USD is strong (which i agree with). Alot of the world is like shit I cant keep value in my countries currency. Swings in value of BTC are better than the 70% inflation of my local currency.
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I listened to some stuff by this guy not to long ago and he had some interesting takes on how PoW (proof of work) established by BTC mining has created one of the strongest security protocols out there and it is a self reinforcing security protocol.
https://twitter.com/JasonPLowery/status/1592276525633916928?s=20&t=ZcYhZbjNzVDrha8EDmDsdQ
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53 minutes ago, Sweet said:
Noon question, but if your BTC is on a single USB, and for some reason that USB gets wrecked, I presume your money is gone? This isn’t something you can back up… right?
BTC is stored in wallet addresses. on the blockchain. a wallet can be restored to any device if you know the seed phrase that generated it. If I know your seed phrase I can access your wallet on my phone or other device.
There are quality 3rd party wallets out there that provide you with ways to access your BTC without access to the wallet. I keep 80% of my BTC in Muun wallet and about 20% in Exodus wallet. Muun will help you set up an emergency document to recover your BTC if you ever need to extract it from the wallet without having access to the wallet. Hardware wallets are similar in that if you have your keys and your seed phrase the wallet could be recreated on a new device if that device were destroyed or stolen.
Everything comes back to your keys. As long as you know your keys and seed phrase you can access your BTC from any device anywhere in the world.
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11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
Putting money into FTX and even COIN is like lending money to a shady bookie in the red light district because I don't trust the banks.
No one who understands crypto is keeping thier crypto on COIN, BINANCE, or FTX or any other exchange.
You move it to a wallet so that no one other than you can screw with it.
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29 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Cryptocurrencies won't replace fiat currency. Fiat currency will go digital and use blockchain technology for transactions. Every transaction in the future will be one to one...direct transactions...encrypted...secure. You want to own the tZeros, etc that facilitate the transaction...especially transactions of private assets. You will still be using USD in the future...not bitcoin or something else. But the transaction will be one to one, instantaneous, secure and you will be able to sell any or all assets. Cheers!
BTC is different than other cryptos. The rules of BTC have all been laid out publicly and have proven to be quite secure. Even if governments want to go to a CBDC (digital block chain currency) for I would still be bouncing my money between BTC and the USD or whatever the currency is. If Mr. Powell wants to drasticly expand the supply of USD's he can. But no one can make more than 21M BTC. it can be divided infinitely but it there can never be more.
I bet we will see more INTL companies over the next few decades making shifts to transactions in BTC that is then converted back into thier fiat currencies for every day use. Its simpler, cheaper, and more secure. BTC could prove to be a global internet currency.
I agree fiat currency wont go away. but it will face pressures.
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8 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
My guess is Tether. Saylor just has to keep holding and maybe adding and he'll be fine.
^^^
Saylor is good to go as long as he can remain solvent. I've seen several things that say hes good as long as it doesnt drop below $3000.
Not to say it couldn't go back that low but Id be pretty surprised to see BTC drop back below $10K.
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8 hours ago, JRM said:
How are you buying? What would you recommend?
I buy on coinbase then move it to a wallet.
I have no intention of changing my BTC back to Fiat for a long time.
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9 hours ago, rkbabang said:
I’m still buying as well. I’ll be buying all the way down. My prediction based on previous cycles is that it reaches as low as $12K-$13K. We’ve discussed what makes Bitcoin valuable already in this thread multiple times, so I won’t repeat what has already been said. I know not everyone agrees, but that’s what makes a market.
Indeed, many of the indicators that I've seen also say that 12-13K is very likely. But I just keep adding on all dips.
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41 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:
Larry was right
Im still buying bitcoin.
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more BTC
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42 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
Looks like Fidelity is going to allow you to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum soon with very limited functionality at least at first: no crypto deposits or withdrawals.
https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading
Progress...
However 75% of the appeal of crypto to me is that I own it. I dont hold any of my crypto on exchanges. While Fidelity is a name you can "trust" I still want to own my own crypto.
I want to transact in BTC. Cant do that with holding that cant leave the exchange.
*edit* format
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1 hour ago, LC said:
ash the pokemon trainer didn't catch em all but still became a pokemon master.
Wisdom at its finest!
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On 9/11/2022 at 10:52 AM, Spekulatius said:
I use the paid version of tikr. Huge time saver and well worth it. It’s the only info source I pay for.
+1 I also pay for tikr.com - Great tool for the price.
I also pay for seekingalpha - Whenever I am learning about a company I like to read through the history of articles and see both bear and bull takes on a company. I prefer the subjective reading on a company at seeking alpha and analyze numbers within Tikr.com
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No issues with gay's here. Just commenting that there was a lot of gay undertones. It didn't make or break the show. Likely Sandman would have been just as good without them. I find most shows include unnecessary sexual content just because they can.
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41 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
Just finished watching The Sandman this weekend. Really good show, which according to Neil Gaiman Netflix may or may not renew for a second season unfortunately. I guess they spent something like $15M per episode on season 1, so it will have to do extraordinarily well for them to commit to a season 2. So if you were planning on watching it, doing so sooner rather than later might help Netflix decide to renew it.
also watched this - I enjoyed it, but I felt the LGBT tones were a little strong and over played. Id watch another season but if it didn't happen I wouldn't miss it.
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51 minutes ago, Castanza said:
How do you search? Every time I do a three letter ticket search it shows zero results? Tried it from General Category, General Discussion, Investment Ideas, Everywhere.
No Bueno
This literally drives me bat shit crazy... I spent a stupid amount of time trying to find some 3 letter ticket symbol comments that i had seen previously the other day.
best way to do 3 letter tickers is go to google type site:thecobf.com/forum "tiker" and use googles search capabilities. Far from ideal.
@Parsad if theres anything to recommend for the forum that I think is highly relevant its this search functionality. for a "stock" related forum its really frustrating to flat out not be able to search a 3 letter ticker.
on day to day checking i usually hit Activity and scroll through all the recent activity.
Edit: i hit publish to quick...
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Co-worker tried to convince me to gamble some money on BBBY. He got 143% in 2 days and took his money off the table.
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1 hour ago, joka said:
@Longnose, good to hear! Have he done this for long? BABA is a good case study as many have sold out of that position which made shameless cloners a little shaky but that is where it helps to have more than one investor you clone that idea from and of course have your own conviction as you say. In my case for example, it didn't matter much that Pabrai sold out (which we later found out was a tax loss harvesting play) but the majority of the folks I cloned still kept their position and thus, so did I.
About 5 years ish prior to that he was all in ETF's Mutual funds. - Hes tracked slightly better than the S&P since starting the strategy. He likes that he feels more connected to the companies hes invested in vs the feeling of broad indexing. He sold out of baba when Charlie sold half.
How Bad Will The Recession Be in 2023?
in General Discussion
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I can tell you that all the major retailers right now are shitting the bed...