Longnose
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Posts posted by Longnose
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20 minutes ago, n.r98 said:
This whole thread has gone from moderately informative to just downright toxic. I suggest we end this whole conversation; Pabrai is just a fella clawing his way through the woods like all of us. Let's mind our own business.
Agreed, Like him or not he's a good guy and hes done a lot more positive things for the world than negative.
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Like I mentioned before if every couple only has one child the reduce the population by half in one generation. That fact is pretty staggering.
This article talks about some of the issues around that fact. Not only is china dealing with this for long term population decline, they have the issues around more boys than girls culture in china favors males over females.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Son_preference_in_China#Chinese_one_child_policy
I have thought about these social issues quite a bit as I have a decent position in MOMO (Chinese dating app).
Overall the Chinese are incredibly hard working and resilient as a people. I am confident they will overcome these challenges but it will take its toll. I think the Chinese economy will only continue to grow even if the population may peak and decline in the next 50 years.
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Yes, Its happened to me a few times. Usually if I try again an hour later it is fine. But it is annoying when it happens.
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I took an upper division populations class my last semester of college as an elective. It became one of my favorite classes. Something I've reflected on regularly is replenishment rates. We see in many western societies a large decrease in birth rates. Many european nations now have negative birth rates. This fact has always boggled my mind.
If every couple only has one child. We reduce the population of the planet in half in one generation.
I remember studying the after effects of the china one child policy. It still causes them issues.
I like this topic...
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7 hours ago, MattR said:
That I think was the strangest decision of all. He bought it and a few days later he sold it, no idea why - he said he realized it won't work out.
From what I understand, he sold it because he wanted to use the float like Warren does to make investment and other purchases. He may not have known that in most states there are regulatory laws that prohibit insurance companies from making "riskier" purchases with their float including public securities. I believe his insurance company was based out of Louisiana where he could not make use the float the way he wanted to. Nebraska is one of the few states in the country where insurance companies can buy public securities with their float. This is probably influenced by the fact that Warren / Berkshire are located there.
I think people are pretty harsh judges on Mohnish. I think he does a great job sharing his methodology and I am grateful for all he puts out into the universe so I can learn from it. He said in one of his recent talks. There are 1000 ways to mecca. He's just following his. We all make our own investing decisions.
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1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
Paul,
In way, it's beyond me, why you're interested in people, who have [basically] folded, and closed up shop. What value do you get out of the information about the late innings?
37 minutes ago, stahleyp said:There was a lot of value to be gained by reading about Buffett and why/when he closed up shop. You should let your curiosity take you places sometimes, John.
I agree, post mortem analysis is very revealing and healthy. Its always worth doing a post mortem on any investment successful and unsuccessful. Did your thesis turn out right or were you just lucky?
I have studied Allan for quite some time and really like his style. I hope things have turned out well for him. But anything we learned and shared is education for all.
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I am in my 30's and my state just opened up to most everyone. I got my first does of Pfizer yesterday. I am grateful I have avoided getting COVID up till this point. My father in law died from COVID last April and I have a friend who is a little younger than me that spent 10 weeks on a ventilator and just got off last week. Granted I have hundreds of friends with minimal symptoms. But that doesn't stop me from doing my part.
I would love ten years from now to add COVID to the list of viruses like smallpox and polio that have been eliminated in the US because of vaccines. Don't know if it will happen, but a man can hope.
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The best DFV video in my opinion. Also in line with the previous comments, I am not convinced many money managers in the industry do much more than this anyway.
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I was recently gifted some crypto. Being gifted it helped break down the barriers to entry and helped me learn more about it. I started thinking about buying more but I keep running into fees. Every time I want to do a transaction there is a fee if I want to move it from my exchange (coinbase) to my crypto wallet (exodus) there is a fee. And what what I have gathered if I want to send or buy something in crypto there is also another fee.
Seems to me that If I don't buy a crypto like an old school investment (back when all the brokers charged fees for transactions). That inactivity and speculating that its only going up is the only right answer with crypto.
Correct me if If I am wrong or direct me to where I can move crypto around without paying the so called "miners" every time something moves.
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"The first secret to a happy life is low expectations."
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bonsai partners has a pretty ballsy concentrated portfolio.
He also did a stellar write up on micron.
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SIMO - Greenblatt/ Magic formula type semiconductor stock.
Looks interesting with revenue growth, stable margins, and high ROIC. This thing deserves a thread of its own, IMO. Maybe this is similar to MU, cyclical, long-term trend is upwards, buy when others are looking the other way?
SIMO’s memory controller business is a much better business than MU, imo, because there is less pricing fluctuation and it is fabless. Gross margins are fairly stable around 50%, so it’s not as good as a CPU or analog business, but much better than totally commoditized segments like memory.
I can start a thread and write a few lines, but my thesis isn’t deep: it’s just an OK to good and somewhat lumpy business that is cheep.
Every time I look at SIMO, I think "why is't this priced higher?". I first bought some shares of it in 2017, at $42. My "analysis" back then was (I wrote it down) : "Looks like a solid company. Makes money, has no debt, is in a market that has a future. Is the market leader?". Today I still agree with my thesis, and now it is priced at $39 ???
In a crazy market where "everything" is priced to perfection, I just don't get why this has been more or less flat for five years. My main reason for not buying some more SIMO is that often when I think Mr. Market is wrong, it turns out there is some valid reason for the price being what it is...
Not sure my comments will be that constructive but like you I look at SIMO periodically. Most times my thesis is about the same as yours. I've come to the conclusion that SIMO's just not growing very fast. Revenue has been near flat from 2017 till now. Margins have slimmed up a bit. I would bet they are looking for the next leap in growth. I hold MU as well. Sometime I wonder if SIMO is, in Pabrai's terms a "hidden compounder" If you purchased MU in the bottom of a cycle and held for more than 10 years MU compounds north of 20% per year through its cyclicality. I wonder if SIMO being a supplier of the semi conductor industry has similar traits over very long periods of time. My big thought would be what is the moat here? can it be sustained for 10 years? I dont know all the ins and outs of creating semiconductor controllers .
Philanthropy
in General Discussion
Posted
Today I was talking with a friend and he brought up Chuck Feeney. The billionaire who gave it all away. Its a pretty cool story for anyone who isn't familiar or who wants to look it up. Then we got caught up talking about being charitable. I've always wanted to be more charitable with my money and i like hearing about how others do it. Pabrai talks about giving away 2% of his net worth every year. Some of my relatives have tied charity into their Christmas instead of giving out gifts they make donations to foundations in the name of all the kids/grandkids. Then you get into the challenges of giving it away effectively. I've been to a few charity events and donated to some of those causes but I always feel like I'm donating to a black hole. I know Bill Gates talks about the challenges of trying to solve the worlds toughest problems and using money wisely to do that can be a challenge.
Anyways, I'm not sure what I wanted to get at here other than I hope to be more philanthropic in the future and admire many charitable people in my life.