EBITDAg

Has anyone done the work to understand what the impact would be to STZ if they’re slapped with 25% tariffs?

Missed slightly and lowered revenue forecast. Seems a bit extreme to send it down this much.

Sold my small COST position. 55x earnings is a bit much. Would love to own again 40% lower.

Pretty difficult to do if you aren't C-level at another public company. Maybe if you were head of regulation/compliance at JPM type bank you could sit on a small bank public co board. I'm not sure if this Director position is a typical Corporate direction position - if so, it's likely at least a decade of work and some luck to get to Sr Director, then VP, then SVP/EVP/head of dept.

Seems like the right approach generally. 6 years feels a little long on R&D though.

I love Mauboussin but his can be hard to follow (and at least one of his tables I've never been able to reproduce and wondered if it was slightly off). But this table is simpler. For the 9.4x in the top left - ( 1 * (1 - (2%/8%))) / (10% - 2%). The first one being a placeholder for NOPAT. The cost of capital of 10% is implied because that's the rate where ROIC is equal at every growth rate.

The math is in the file. Multiple = (NOPAT*(1-(G/ROIC)))/(W-G). Plug in 1 for NOPAT and you'll get the multiples in the table.

I believe you are correct. I’m not following Vinod

Picked up some TAP. 2.6% div yield and a 9% FCF yield. Has now paid down enough debt that they should be able to start buying back plenty of shares in coming years. I think they should be able to grow earnings MSD and get me to a low teens CAGR over the next decade.

I do wonder how sustainable their growth is when their product quality is complete garbage. Great companies don't cut corners. I wonder if their sports cards are as bad as their apparel.

This guy does a pretty good job of covering CPI. http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2023/10/except-for-fictitious-shelter-and.html

I've also been adding small amounts over the past few days.

WFC-L. ~6.6% yield that might as well be a perpetuity. Will hold for a long time or sell if rates plunge in future and these go back to ~$1300+ again.

My favorite quarterly commentary on energy (and commodities more broadly) is out. http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries

As a bagholder, unfortunately that company just did $0 in FCF, and that's with $3B in SBC not burdening that calc, in Q3. YTD FCF with SBC backed out is now implying a ~2% FCF yield on 2022 numbers, with no desire to pull back on expenses, so that number is probably even lower on '23 figures. Just a terrible intermediate term outlook.