Munger_Disciple

Sure thing. It's also a general comment; I found his interviews in the last 10 years to be somewhat boring. He just repeats the same boiler plate thing with no useful advice to general investing public. This is very much the opposite of Charlie (Munger) who was very interesting & gave useful advice to us "groupies" (as he called us) till the end. That's why Charlie is the and is sorely missed. On a side note, I hear Seth is more interested in horse racing these days than investing.

I watched this interview, didn't find it all that useful to be honest.

Lubrizol CEO: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/07/23/lubrizol-not-tariff-free-but-well-positioned-due-to-local-approach.html

From the vudoo boys (cc: @gfp who seems to be a part-time practitioner ) https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/07/22/berkshires-stock-seeing-a-normal-drawdown-but-still-in-an-uptrend-says-carter-worth.html

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/bnsf-hires-goldman-csx-seeks-bankers-union-pacific-sparks-rail-ma-race-sources-2025-07-21/

I listened to Kelton on a podcast once. Prior to that, I was under the impression that she was totally insane but my opinion of her changed after listening to her. I still don't agree with all her her policy ideas but she was a lot more impressive and intelligent than I thought before.

Guess so. But there were many famous treasury secretaries in the past; Alexander Hamilton, Andrew Mellon, etc. However you are right that the idiots on CNBC & other media like to talk endlessly about the Fed, which Fed sort of encourages with their press conferences and leaks to WSJ reporters, thus creating a runaway feedback loop promoting their own importance.

If treasury is way more important than the Fed, why would Bessent want the Fed job?

Is Stephanie Kelton's book any good?

I haven't looked at the trading companies in detail but I was under the impression that most of their revenue came from Yen denominated sales, mostly in Japan to Japanese customers even though they invested capital in resources abroad.

But there is an offsetting asset (the equity positions in Japanese trading companies) on the balance sheet supporting this liability in Yen denominated bonds. Presumably the mark-to-market value of equity positions may increase in USD if the Yen strengthens against the dollar (but that's no means that's certain). Overall I think it's a wash even though the Yen liabilities look bigger in USD if the Yen strengthens; but so do the Yen denominated assets generally. The insurance earnings and lower T-bill rates are much bigger issues I think going forward.

Higher rates on T-bills, and hard insurance market in 2024. Rates are going to be lower and insurance market is likely to soften a bit going forward.

Fair enough. I would also point out that FFH has much higher insurance operating leverage defined as Annual Premiums written/Net worth of > 100% when compared BRK. As with investment leverage, this operating leverage could also cut both ways. BTW Berkshire was very significantly overvalued on a P/B metric in 1996 which is why Buffett issued so much stock for GenRe and other acquisitions at that point. He also famously pointed out that neither he nor Charlie would buy stock at those prices when B shares were first issued. Even so If FFH just matches BRK performance in the next stage of its corporate life, I would be a happy camper.

I don't want to rain on the parade here but @gfp don't you think higher leverage relative to BRK cuts both ways?

Amen to that!

LOL

As a US taxpayer subject to Canadian tax withholding prior to receiving the dividend, Amen to that! Shareholders should remember that dividends are not free. DIY DRIP is not only tax-inefficient, you are buying DRIP stock at a substantial premium to book value (1.7x). If the company has internal growth opportunities with attractive rates of return, it's best for the company to retain 100% of earnings and reinvest internally. If there are zero reinvestment opportunities, then buyback is way more tax efficient than dividends. But given the peculiarities of the management, we just have to put up with the inefficiency. I view TRS a little differently when compared to buybacks. TRS is similar to a levered buyback with almost 100% margin loan. I wish they close it out at these prices.

I like your explanation better than mine though both ways of looking at buybacks are valid and provide good insight into the effectiveness of buybacks.

No matter how you look at it, buybacks have been an outstanding allocation of capital. I did a rough calculation the following way; assuming a 10% discount rate, total cost of capital outlay in present dollars is roughly $3.9 billion for the 5.163 million shares bought back. And the retired shares created $9 billion of market value in today's dollars. So a huge success!! Created more than $2 of market value for $1 spent on buybacks.

Verge on Trump Phone: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/06/16/trump-mobile-is-not-real-cant-press-release-past-operating-a-phone-network-says-the-verges-patel.html

I agree we don't know the details of these investments. Just making a general observation based on the financial information disclosed. Perhaps Prem values the IB relationship with BDT whereby FFH gets access to potential private deals in addition to financial returns from participating in their funds.

MOM multiple of 1.66X of capital invested (since 2009) doesn't scream like a great return to me regardless of whether it's an equity or debt investment.

WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-bond-market-us-debt-990e12e9?st=6Bupmt&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Good article on Ajit's succession plan in WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/berkshire-hathaway-succession-insurance-003dcf86?st=MdcfNY&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink I suspect the name in the envelope that Ajit gave the board is Kara Raiguel, his protege and current CEO of GenRe.