Munger_Disciple

It's weird but he only seems to write 500 page reports on BRK and not much else.

BRK Levered ETF. Buffett probably hates this s**t: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-berkshire-being-packaged-leveraged-193611168.html

Nothing new but a good article in WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/does-warren-buffett-know-something-that-we-dont-48fabc9d

Yes that's a good point about shale which is driving US production.

That may be a bit misleading due to a lag between actual production and all the permitting processes. So a lot of it might be due to Trump-45.

If Trump facilitates a deal between Zelensky & Putin, it is good for world oil supplies which will put a downward pressure on oil prices. Trump may also allow new piplelines to be built between Canada & the US, which is also good for oil supplies here. So it is hard to argue Trump is good for oil prices in general. Some say oil companies have "found" fiscal discipline recently but I have my doubts.

Thanks @gfp and @brobro777. I agree that Trump is probably not good/ at best neutral for oil companies.

Do you guys think if Trump win + a Republican sweep is good or bad or oil stocks?

Can it potentially lead to a weaker dollar or higher inflation? If it is just weaker dollar, I suppose Trump may like it. But inflation would be a real problem for him.

Thanks @wabuffo. Great tutorial and you are the best! I think Sheila Bair was talking about possible increase in LT rates. Naturally the treasury determines the composition of the treasury debt issued but can they keep controlling the LT rates with increased deficit spending forever by issuing mostly ST treasury bills? Doesn't the private sector at some point have a say in determining the LT treasury rates?

There was a good interview with Sheila Bair, former chair of FDIC on CNBC today. She also warned about the un-sustainability of growing US debt and its potential impact on the yield of longer dated US treasuries.

Wow! Thanks for the info

Can't imagine this being accurate: "It appears that Berkshire Hathaway’s liability in the Whittaker Clark situation isn’t capped, which would be unusual for Berkshire Hathaway, which normally seeks to limit its liabilities in these situations."

Yeah that sums it up pretty well

I am not sure about Apple; Warren said it is likely (not guaranteed) that they would end 2024 with it being the largest stock holding of Berkshire. Naturally he can change his mind especially if Apple valuation keeps going up. I think you are 100% correct about BAC. Warren was very disappointed at how they piled into LT treasuries in 2020-21, reaching for a tiny bit of yield.

The number of Berkshire shares outstanding (A equivalent) have actually gone up by 912 during Q3 to 1,407,608. Appears related to buying back BHE stock held by Scott estate.

If it's on the internet, it must be true

FWIW I don't think Warren is building a huge cash pile for an acquisition. I suspect he thinks that the US stock market is greatly overvalued and is trading at high valuation based on possibly cyclically adjusted high earnings w/o factoring into account any of the big risks. And T-bills are paying him a decent inflation adjusted return w/o any risk so T-bills will be the default until he finds something intelligent to do. I like that he stopped buying back Berkshire stock at these prices. Warren may also be "cleaning up the portfolio" to hand-off just permanent holdings to Greg to manage, and the current valuations make that relatively painless.

There is no way the Mars family wants to sell such a great business unless there are family issues with control.

Great trade!

Now it seems to have hit ATH in the US dollars as well

Definitely not necessary.

The main problem with showing returns with dividend reinvestment is that most such calculations don't take into account the tax leakage from dividends. Most people incur taxes in the range of 20%-35% with federal and state taxes in the US. So the after-tax returns tend to be lower. For this reason, stock buybacks tend to be far superior but a large part of the investor base for tobacco companies want dividends so it shall be primarily dividends with a smaller buyback thrown in.

Agree