shamelesscloner

This is a fascinating TED Talk about how survivorship bias skews our perception: It's compelling to study the big winners in business in hopes that we improve our ability to pick future big winners. But as value investors, it's perhaps even more important to identify what causes companies to lose so we can avoid picking future losers. How do you deal with the challenge of survivorship bias in your investing process? Is there an investing equivalent of putting armor where there are no bullet holes?

Wow, at a 5-yr low

What points did you find interesting? Less his logic and more that he was encouraging them to HODL even after the big price drop today. Which will give them the motivation to continue to try to pump it. I wish we had current short interest data that we could trust. Hard to have conviction without that

Going big on your first post! Welcome to the club :)

What points did you find interesting?

Robert Kiyosaki seems to be pushing it pretty hard on Twitter!

As of this morning they were only allowing users to buy 1 share of GME and 5 options contracts for GME.

RICK just may inspire me to expand my circle of competence ;)

SKT LEAPS pure FOMO play

Is anyone here attending? I'm so curious to hear insights from Guy Spier on SRG and from Mike Kruger on Shinoken. https://moiglobal.com/i/

OACB which is Oaktree's second SPAC. Playing it as a "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" cash alternative.

Isn't this just that his China and HK investments don't show up on this?? Very likely, but there must be a way to see those somewhere yeah? We live in the information age!

Funny that you bought BYD thinking that Pabrai was buying. I'd love to own it if it ever goes on sale again! Hey you might know the answer to this. Why is there a $12bn delta between Himalaya's AUM on Adviser Info and equity holdings in TIKR Terminal? What is Li Lu up to?

According to TIKR terminal, Li Lu holds 6 positions with a value around $1.7bn (MU, BYD, FB, BAC, GOOG, ILSUNG). But according to Adviser Info, Himalaya has $13.9bn under management as of 12/31/2019. Where is the other $12+bn? Thanks for any leads! *foreign to me, not necessarily to him ;)

Thank you Shai! I'm going to get in touch with Massif Capital :)

Thanks for your reply Jurgis! Yes I've seen those lists of large cap stocks and it's not quite what I'm after. While they may be better than their peers on ESG criteria, it's hard to get excited about them. I'm hunting for the small caps with a bold vision, where there's also greater potential for mispricings.

I have this pie in the sky dream of combining my values around sustainability with a value investing approach that doesn't compromise on performance. Most of the rhetoric I've seen in the past regarding socially-responsible investing implies that "doing good" means I must settle for lower returns. Well, I'm both a capitalist and a tree hugging hippie, so it's time to embrace that fact. Here is a report sent to me by Cary Krosinsky at Yale which shows the top 100 companies globally by % shares outstanding held in ESG funds: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LQH3yy0ZcE1Rt1KnlgbRoy9UB1tGi4Fr/view?usp=sharing It's a bit dated (Fall 2018) and most of these companies are quite expensive, but this is exactly the type of research I'm looking for in order to find new potential investments to research. If you have successfully integrated your personal values into your investment portfolio, how have you gone about doing it? Thanks in advance for your replies :)

That is from 1990. I'm looking for this one from 2020: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Civilized-modern-value-investing-Chinese/dp/7521712595

In Li Lu's book he provides two detailed case studies of early investments, one of which was Timberland Co discovered by tracking the "new low" list from Value Line. I'd love to get my hands on this book to learn from Li Lu, but I can't seem to find it anywhere! Is it even available in English?

Has anyone read his new book "Civilization, Modernization, Value Investment and China"? I can't seem to track down an English version!

Thanks for providing more color to the situation Jurgis. That all makes sense. I'll give you an opportunity to prove that you aren't taking advantage of hindsight... what is the Tencent equivalent today so we can all just go to sleep for 15 years? ;)

Li Lu, in his 2012 talk at SFSU, said that if he were starting all over again he would first study all the great examples from the past where markets went to the extreme in some small segment of securities that provided a tremendous margin of safety. Here is one opportunity he discovered as a student at Columbia Business School... "As some of you may know, in the early '90s Russia went through a shock therapy and became a free market almost overnight. In a short period of time, they privatized some of the most prized state assets, including Lukoil (LUKOY) and Gazprom (RTO:GAZP) [Russian oil and gas giants]. And it was so short that most people didn't even understand what it was all about. A lot of the people who worked in those companies, as well as ordinary citizens, were given certificates that could be converted to stock ownership, but most people really didn't know what they were. So somebody could come along with real cash, which they recognized, and they freely gave them away. So as a result of all this, these assets were trading at extraordinarily low prices. How low were these prices? Forget about earnings, just consider the assets on the balance sheet. At the time, the five-year average for oil prices was about $20 per barrel and on a per-share basis, they were trading for as low as 1 cent on the dollar, sometimes half a cent on the dollar, so about 10 cents to 20 cents per barrel of crude oil. And that's not even counting the earnings from the company! It was ridiculous." Let's fill this thread with other examples of huge MOS opportunities from the past! Thanks in advance.