Every Banana Counts

TSMC

BRK, META, TSM

FB, TSM, BABA over that past few weeks.

I cannot imagine that the pendulum does not swing the other direction. I think that in the long term the swings will average out, and TSMC is in a very competitive position to do better than its competition in good and bad times. Their chips are going to be the best for a long time. I do wish the Company was headquartered in Arizona instead of right next to China… Thanks for sending the podcast link.

TSM. I listen to a wonderful podcast episode on acquired. This seems like a reasonably priced company, and is likely going to be the dominant player for many years to come.

JD and BABA over the last few weeks. Both felt uncomfortable to buy, as there is obviously a lot of fear and publicity surrounding China now. Setting aside massive regulatory risks this seems like a simple investment decision. Position size is the only way I know to manage the very complex regulatory risk. These are both great companies in a system I don’t understand and have a very hard time relating to.

JD

In a past annual meeting, I forgot which one, Warren said that he thought BRK would do very well in an economy with a much higher rate of inflation. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. In that same meeting I believe he said that greater regulation, and possibly even nationalization, of the insurance industry could be a risk to BRK in a hyper-inflationary environment. This seems unlikely to me, but if people can not afford the insurance the government requires something has to give.

BABA

BRK, FB, GOOG I expect about a 10% return.

MKL- I am surprised I did not hear more people talking about Markel right now. I am really excited Saurabh Madaan joined the team. He seems like an outstanding human, and I expect he does a great job. I also think MKL is selling at a good price assuming their future looks anything at all like their past (big assumption).

I got the Moderna vaccine last week. The first shot. I had no side effects other than a sore arm. A clinic that one of my friends manages had extra shots, so I was able to get vaccinated a bit earlier than I expected.

FB. Small add.

Humility and Honesty. When Charlie said he was probably not the best person to give marital advice due to a past failed marriage I thought this spoke tremendously to his Humility. He also was not obligated to bring up his past failed marriage which I believe spoke to his high degree of honesty. I hope Charlie is able to give many more talks like this. It made my day.

I lived when he said this. It was interesting how he also said people seem to be born with a certain personal level of happiness. These statements are somewhat opposing.

FB

CVS

MKL. Any take on company culture as many of the Markel’s sell out of their holdings? Lots of selling going on. Looks like a good deal at these prices. Thanks.

If Berkshire’s price to book hovered around one for an extended period of time (years), then I think the long-term shareholder would greatly benefit. I cannot imagine a tremendous amount of shares would not be re-purchased. If large amounts of shares are not re-purchased at that level, then they would likely be getting opportunities to make much higher returned elsewhere. This would also be a great scenario for Berkshire. It is a good point you make, but that is why it is important to entrust your money to great capital allocators.

FB. Small add.

I’m heavy in cash now, but if I had to use it I would buy FB, BRK, CVS, MO, MKL, GOOG. I think FB and BRK are the most attractive of the bunch.

FRFHF

MO

BRK

I sold half of my TPB shares.